Can Facebook wipe out Google?

I remember we had an old thread here where some of the guys discussed how Google is slowly taking over the world. After a few references to Enron and the Terminator, everyone pretty much agreed that with the way they’re expanding, they might get screwed -big time- in the future.

Well, this guy from Techcrunch thinks it’ll be Facebook’s doing, and I totally buy it.

If Google’s business has been built on choosing which Web pages, out of all those in the universe, are most likely to appeal to any given (but anonymous) query string, think about this: Facebook already knows, for the most part, which pages appeal to whom—specifically and directly.

And, even more powerfully, Facebook knows each of our individual and collective behavior patterns well enough to predict what we’ll like even without us expressing our intent.

Think of it: Facebook can apply science that is analogous to what Amazon uses to massively increase purchase likelihood by suggesting and responding to every minute interactive cue. Whereas Amazon relies on aggregate behavior, Facebook adds in the intimate patterns of each individual—along with their friends and the behavioral peers they’ve never met all around the world. And each of them is logged in and identified as a real person.

What do you think monkeys? Will FB's entry into the search engine game mean lights out for Google?

To be honest I was never a fan of Facebook, and neither did I get it's potential. Seeing such profound statuses like "Mmm, pork chops for lunch" and "Had a great shower!" on a daily basis turned me off the whole thing, so much so that I deleted my own account and never thought about it again.

Lately though I've slowly been converting; there's really no escaping or stopping FB today. The ubiquitous like button for example is on everything from Auto sites to Zoo magazine that one needs to be blind, deaf, and retarded not to understand how much potential the company really has. Not to mention how screwed Google would be if they applied it against them.

So what say you monkeys? IF Facebook goes this route, will it be the end of Google? Or will the twins come out on top?

Should we buy their IPO?

Will we ever find out who Cartman's real father is?

Have a good one WSO.

 

Def. buy the IPO for a quick short term trade lol. Long Term they will eventually die just like....Hey guys remember something called MySpace? Something newer better will come out. The only reason google is still on top with search is because no other company has ever produced better search results, i tried bing its horrible the results are brutal compared to google.

One reason facebook won't replace google ever is, all i have to do is go to google.com and start searching, with facebook all you have to do is go to facebook.com and sign in and then search 1 step to much.

And facebooks search will probably blow chunks. You can argue with ohh they have like information ect. ect. Anyway i know alot of people who don't even sign on to facebook anymore sooner or later people will realize what a waste of time it is, and most have. Pick up the phone and fuckin call your freinds lol

 
gselsidi:
The only reason google is still on top with search is because no other company has ever produced better .... results
By this logic, facebook may stay on top. Or may not......it is as of yet unknown.

Facebook and google would do better to merge than compete.

Get busy living
 

Facebook is not nearly as complex and developed/diverse as google is. Google is one of the best-run companies in the world and I don't see it dying to a social networking fad that WILL eventually be replaced by the "next best thing"

I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.
 

Google has far better human capital and a more diverse business model. This gives Google the advantage in the long run.

A little known fact is that Google also tried a foray into social networking with something called Orkut...which for whatever reason is actually wildly popular in Brazil, but almost unheard of in the United States where it originated.

 
Best Response

As someone who works in the online tech space here are my thoughts...

Facebook will not get into the paid search space as it is known today. It's a good business, however, it requires a ridiculous amount of investment to even become relevant in the space (just look at MSFT they've sunk billions into the search space and what do they have? ~30% U.S. share, inclusive of Y! partnership, and barely anything internationally). FB will continue as they currently are with Bing powering their search product. That said, one of the things that is happening in the industry is that a lot of the budgets going towards online social advertising are coming from other direct response-focused products - primarily search. Facebook could take even more dollars from the search space if it is able to provide greater ROI for advertisers, although this is not currently happening, FB is collecting such rich data on both its own site and across the web via its FB Connect and Like products that it has the potential to provide advertisers with a higher yield than search. Additionally, Facebook could cause more of a revenue shift from GOOG if it is able to effectively drive online to offline conversions - by this I mean if they start to monetize on mobile and create a compeling deals platform (via their places product) that creates a greater link for advertisers between their online placements and their offline sales. Also, with its FB Connect position FB has the opportunity to create a 3rd party ad business that could completely disrupt the core online display market again impacting another one of GOOG's large businesses. Finally, Google's position as the web's starting point, a key advantage it currently has, is starting to erode as FB is displacing it. This is an important thing to note as we look at the evolution of the web's starting points...starting with directories (Y!), then portals (remember Y!, AOL, MSN), then search (GOOG), and now social (FB). In all of these instantiations the web's starting point helped users find the most relevant content...one can potentially argue that for the most part the highly relevant content that you will get on FB, both from your own network and from your online activities being tracked via the open graph, will be more relevant to users and will slowly chop away at the value of search...advertisers go where the eyeballs are...

I think FB definitely has the potentially to disrupt GOOG's core business, not through its own search product, but rather by disproportionately capturing dollars that would have otherwise gone to search. That said, GOOG has other businesses that it is building and gaining momentum in, particularly online display and mobile (which is 100% monetized by search / display revenues).

 

AAPL didnt kill IBM. MSFT didnt kill AAPL. YHOO didnt kill MSFT. GOOG didnt kill YHOO. Facebook wont be able to kill GOOG.

The current enthusiasm on Facebook will just fade until the next brilliant entrepreneur start the next new big thing. But it takes much much more than just a right idea at the right time with the right people to grow a company into the size of MSFT or GOOG.

Would not be hard to imagine a slight misstep of these current darlings such as Facebook, Groupon or LinkedIn, fade into oblivion like Friendster or Myspace.

 
Lulz:
I don't know how long the facebook trend will last. I remember when people thought myspace was the end all be all of social media.

idiots in the media thought this. Out of touch. I don't know a single person with a myspace who thought this. Literally, not a single one. Look to the population around you. Facebook is here to stay. I don't know a single person without a facebook, in college or out.

 

I really believe that both these companis are .com strongholds that won't be going anywhere any time soon and if google is to lose its rein as the search engine of choice, I doubt it will be to facebook.

While I don't think Facebook is going anywhere, I do wonder how a well-developed social networking site strictly for college students would fair in competition for that demographic. As we all know, Facebook was originally intended for college students and I know a lot of young people whom it bothers that Facebook has expanded to all ages. It does kind of suck that you need to be careful with all of your pictures because your Mom or Aunt just made a profile and want to be friends - then question why they can't see your pictures. Oh sorry mom, I disabled them, but only for you, because there's pictures of me crushing a funnel and pulling trig at that huge spring weekend I told you about. A forum for college students to freely and safely display how cool/badass they are might actually thrive but would never amount to Facebook's stature and global appeal.

 

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