China's new leaders, President Xi and Premier Li, are rumored to be removing the one child policy by as early as the end of this year according to BoA economist, Ting Lu. If one parent comes from a one child family, that parent will be able to have two children. By as soon as 2015, it might be possible for all families to have two children. Lu is saying that is will be done to help improve China's slowing economy.
This seems like another Hail Mary from China to forestall that their economy will not be able to maintain its current growth and go into recession. China already has an overpopulation problem. How will increasing the population begin to fix things? Before the newborns are old enough to contribute they will be net takers. They would only be an economic drain from resources used and the money taken to educate them and keep them healthy.
Next China has a growing income disparity between the social classes, it makes the United States' income disparity laughable. Most of the population is lower middle class or in poverty. How will an increase in the poverty classes help? There is such a thing called a poverty trap and broad population increases do not help that.
The real problem China has with its population is its population male to female ratio. The male to female ratios according to the World Data Bank are:
- Age 15 & Under: 1.17
- Ages 15-64: 1.06
- Ages 65 & Over: 0.93
- Current Birth estimates: 1.19
With a quickly aging population and high male to female ratios, this could be the government's plan to help rebalance the population. Having a bunch of guys in their 20s and 30s not having any significant other would make them more likely to leave or cause social unrest. But like in the past where families would leave their newborn daughters at an orphanage so they could try for a son, this would most likely just happen again.
Maybe the Chinese government decided to relax the single child rule because the government does not think that they will be able to enforce the rule any longer and that they are changing it to two children to save face.
I do not see in any way that this will China in any way whatsoever. I bet somehow if Lu's predictions are correct and the population increase is successful the Chinese government will soon have some positive economic spin. Of course I could be wrong and this will all work out magnificently.