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Seeing as you're Doctor Evil, I can only wish you this best in this cloud computing investment strategy so that you might reach your final goal of 1 billion, gagillion, fafillion, shabolubalu million illion yillion...yen.
Invest in Microsoft, the company has been growing earnings at 10% a year for the last 10 years, yet the stock is roughly at the same price it was 10 years ago. There's is still plenty of growth left for Microsoft in emerging markets, and Microsoft should benefit from their tremendous investment in cloud computing. Microsoft will double in the next 10 years and pay a decent dividend along the way.
okay, let's say that microsoft continues to pay around a 2% dividend each year. 10 times 2 is 20%. If it also doubles in 2 years, that a total 220% return.
Annualized over 10 years, that's a 8.2% return. Not shabby, but not great. There are probably better companies out there.
Let's DO THIS!
"As of March, 70% of Microsoft employees were working on cloud-related projects, and there's no sign this has changed since."
What's your source for this? I know MSFT org pretty well, and this is either a bogus number, or the definition of "cloud computing" that the janitors are considered to be working on cloud projects because they log their hours using a web based system.
Lemur, my source is the link I'd included, but here it is again: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2010/mar/05/microsoft-cloud-computi… ... scroll down...Ballmer said that "70% of employees are doing something cloud-based or cloud-inspired" ... ha, but I get your point ... "cloud" is a term used loosely and used in the most general sense (as I defined it earlier in my post for those not totally familiar with the concept) applies to most web services. And, hey, if you agree with Wired that the Web is dead (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/all/1) and everything is moving towards apps and semiclosed platforms, all the more reason to believe that Ballmer isn't overstating the 70% mark...
I don't get it and I am not a liberal arts major. Clouds are just a technology, how can you apply it in ETF's?
I couldn't agree more. Cloud computing is the future. Many Silicon Valley CEOs including Google's, Larry Ellison of Oracle, and bill Gates have all invested just to name a few. I think an ETF to capture this market would be great. About 3 weeks ago, I invested in Salesforce.com, which is cloud computing for customer relationship management. This software is used increasingly in all businesses and can be molded for each and every business with simple to use steps. Since owning it the price has increased dramatically and it just got a favorable analyst report to BUY. This is a pureplay, but there are certainly other companies out there that I think fit the bill as mentioned above (e.g., Citrix, 3par, etc.)
nfridman, great ideas! I meant to include Salesforce.com -- can't believe I left them out! Great business. Do you know what happened in the wake of VMWare and Salesforce teaming up to birth VMForce??? It was potentially going to allow VMWare to go beyond SaaS and get into being a PaaS provider, and would give Salesforce the benefit of VMWare's acquisitions and wealth of java developers -- but I got distracted and lost track of this shtuff...
Point is, though, SaaS, PaaS, and IaaS companies will be around for quite some time and will continue to benefit from intra-collaboration. No better way then to incentive-ize than with an ETF, AM I RIGHT!?!?! LET'S DO THIS!!!
Second comment above. Cloud computing is definitely the future. Was in the TMT group this summer in SF at a BB and cloud computing along with mobile payments systems = the future. Saw a lot of flow with companies focused solely on the cloud computing space: Carbonite, Mozy, etc. Also, bigger companies like Oracle and Dell are trying to break into that space and pick up specific pieces of the puzzle (acquisition of Sun Microsystems etc) .
IMO, CRM is incredibly overvalued. Goog is their direct competitor and they will surpass them shortly. Interviewed with Google Enterprise this week and after having the opportunity to chat with Strategy Directors in that division, I strongly believe CRM is overvalued for it's current multiple (207x P/E), however, is in the right space.
An ETF with all the big hitters like Google, MSFT, CRM, Oracle, and some smaller niche players who will eventually IPO would be a greatttt idea.
Kryptic, you and fridman are right on. Cloud and mobile payment systems are the big trends in Silicon Valley right now -- everyone wants a piece of the business. Clones and ports are popping up by the minute. I think you're right, CRM may be overvalued, especially in the face of Goog Enterprise. Google is an ad business, in control of the world's information, know a thing or two about user interface, have one of the best cloud services already (Goog Docs), will no doubt be well-suited to provide biz email security w/ what they've learned from reading our Gmail accts, and they own 1mill servers.
The idea, if you're a small comp, is to come up w/ a clever SaaS biz strategy, get bought up by one of the big wigs (Oracle, Apple, MSFT, Goog) who are (mostly) well set up to become PaaS providers.
There are already some Tech Sector Funds that include some of the comps you've mentioned, so I would love to go after CRM, Box.net, etc. (when the smaller comps go public) and pit them against the bigger ETFs, to see how they do. Really, put money in both, and kick back. Who's with me?
This, ladies and gentlemen, is when you know a bubble is forming, or already has.
Cloud/SaaS will no doubt grow, but I simply cannot justify the valuations on the leaders in the space (CRM for well, CRM, SFSF for HR/talent management, etc.) If you want to play SaaS, look at support elements and/or #2 / less well-known players - think something like Citrix instead of VMWare, or perhaps Concur instead of Salesforce - still SaaS, but not paying the ridiculous premium for size / brand.
I dig it! I think once the public realizes that cloud computing's security is just as/if not more secure than on-line banking large institutions will seek the advantages it provides. At a time when everyone wants to reduce costs I can see large institutions adapting cloud computing for their less sensitive information/computing needs. It would also provide the advantage of linking partnerships in a secure easy manner to share information. The logistics of it are still quite a ways away (5-10 yrs) since multiple locations of huge server locations will have to be assembled and strategically located throughout the world to provide assurance no single terrorist action could wipe everyone's information. But I still dig it, these are hurdles that can and will be overcome.
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