Japan
It’s pretty late but the tragic events in Japan have been running through my mind.
First off, my heart goes out to all the Japanese. I’ve experienced my share of natural disasters but nothing that could even compare to what you are going through now. I’ve never been there, but over the years where I’ve met and dealt with the Japanese I can say they are truly good people and I wish them nothing but the best in this time of crisis.
There’s been a lot of comparison between this and the terrible Kobe earthquake 16 years ago; were like a phoenix, Japan rose from the turmoil stronger and healthier.
The Yen rose 18% in a span of 3 months back then, while economic growth was around 3.6% peaking at 5.9% at Q4 of 1996.
Traders are now speculating that this will happen again, which we see in the continuing strength of Yen but the smart money agrees that this is just way too early to assess the matter.
How about you monkeys? Are you bullish or bearish on Japan today? The Yen?
Back in 1995 the Nikkei lost over 15% because of the rising Yen (incidentally, Nick Leeson went long), but the Yen itself isn’t exactly a sure bet apparently.
Few are buying the asset repatriation story and as Macromon pointed out, the dollar was already in a decline coming into Kobe so its real impact to the Yen is questionable.
The obvious play here is construction and infrastructure, but what else is there?
Bonds?
Over $190 billion worth of maturing Japanese bonds are to be redeemed this month and how this will affect the now-soaring bond market is beyond me. Add the fact that its the Japanese year end just adds to all the confusion.
Curious what you monkeys think will happen here, how do you see this play out?
Have a good one WSO.
I don't buy a rising yen. A rising yen implies that there's something in japan worth buying, and right now I wouldn't put my money there - zero growth and now negative after the disaster. They need 35 billion in repairs, but it's not quite sure yet how much of that will be foreign cash flow or simply local insurance.
I don't man, shit sucks. Feel really terrible for all the people there. Last I heard the plant that blew up earlier this weekend, blew up AGAIN. Poor guys can't catch a break.
I feel really bad about the people in Japan, especially with the nuclear leak right now, I don't know what is going to happen.
I also wonder how this disaster is going to affect the business of Nomura in North America. You guys have thoughts on this?
"Some 210,000 people living near the battered nuclear reactors have been evacuated" Keep in mind this 40 year old plant is said to be fine and in good shape. Chernobyl is said to not repeat itself. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8380219/Japan-nucl…
Last I checked winds were blowing from Japan to Russia.
UPDATE: BoJ is monetizing to the tune of 180 billion yen, and the Yen is falling against the dollar.
Wow, just read about the explosion. Thought they already handled it yesterday...
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