Should We Be Worried About Ukraine?
Going to be a short one today, guys, because what I'm really looking for is your feedback. Depending on whom you believe, we're either on the brink of WW3 or the whole thing is basically over, so move along there's nothing to see here. Obviously my primary concern is the potential impact on the market (as mercenary as that sounds). Yesterday it got knocked around a bit, but today all the world markets are up, presumably on hopes of de-escalation.
So I'm wondering how seriously we need to take this. The whole mess in Turkey a few weeks ago made the market look shaky, and now there's this, so I'm forced to wonder if the market is just looking for an excuse to go lower in dramatic fashion.
And then there's Bitcoin. I buy BTC every Monday morning, and I got mine yesterday for $582.97. At one point yesterday it went over $700, and that was before I had dinner. I'm not sure if it's oligarch money trying to find a way out of Russia/Ukraine, if we have Her Royal Majesty to thank, or if an unknown New York bank regulator's off-hand comment is the cause. If Bitcoin becomes a flight to quality in times of turmoil, well, then we've got a whole new ballgame.
So help me understand what's going on, and preferably before the open. Should I put stops on everything? Or will this too pass?
Help a brother out, WSO.
Check your inbox.
I forgot originally to actually answer your question regarding the markets. I'm not putting in any stops just yet. I think people are in la la land still and this market has been remarkably resilient over the past couple months. I think it would be prudent to buy a few puts while you can get them, but to start dumping everything would be a bit crazy.
This strikes me as posturing more than it does anything. If you ask me this is something that has been awhile coming, as the global community as a whole has lost quite a bit of respect for the United States. Going a bit further, let me break some news: Putin thinks Obama, our state department and everyone else are totally incompetent and incapable of actually doing anything about this. In fact, they let the EU try and take care of this and they've turned it into an even greater mess.
I think Putin got egg on his face for being unable to actually build a few hotels for the Olympics and is now acting out about it showing the world that he is powerful. People don't want to hear the uncomfortable truth about this, but this is why we outspend the next 20 countries or something crazy on defense and precisely why we should not be taking steps backwards as we have in the past few years. I stuggle with the idea that we should be 'policing the world' (who the hell are we to do that?) but I don't think extending a meagerly line of credit to the Ukraine does anything more than make us look like clowns and provoke Putin into going just a little bit further each time we do that.
http://www.businessinsider.com/flexcoin-2014-3
Just lol.
.
@Edmundo Braverman, where are you getting your coins? Are you going onto an exchange or using something local?
What site do you use to to track the price of BTC?
The thing in Ukraine sadly is just Obama trying to prove that he is big enough to sit at the grown ups table. In my view the situation is basically over, while it will drag on for months I imagine. The reality of what has happened is here to stay. The US, EU and NATO might be able to "force" the Russians to stand down but it reality it will be with Russia getting the upper hand in influence in Ukraine.
@"wannabeaballer" @"Zargo" I use Coinbase to buy and sell (and get pricing too) and Blockchain to monitor pricing and the various goings on in the blockchain. I also use the Blockchain app on my Android phone for any purchases or on the fly transfers.
@"Going Concern" The reason events like this have no impact on the greater BTC market is because only n00bs use hot wallets. The wider Bitcoin community has wised up to the fact that the onus of security is on the individual and we've moved on. You can absolutely make your Bitcoin stash invulnerable to hackers, and I'm starting to think maybe I should do a post on that very subject.
Is this the real-world equivalent of stashing actual cash under a mattress?
LOL basically.
I suppose you could look at it that way, except that the wallet is transactional (meaning you can add to it and subtract from it) and the appropriate level of security is determined by the individual. "Brain" wallets are even gaining in popularity, which removes even the physical aspect of cold storage and makes it so literally nothing can be stolen because nothing exists in the physical world. I just don't trust my liquor-addled brain with it.
Off server and off net wallets i.e. a flash drive plugged into a battery power station locked in a lockbox in a bank.
I must apologize, but as a casual observer, I am concerned that you have lost objectivity with respect to your Bitcoin thesis. Ask yourself what evidence could ever surface that would cause you to rethink your investment, because at this point, I think that list is vanishingly short.
FWIW, one of the leading hypotheses for the Mt. Gox collapse is a failure of the exchange's cold storage techniques. Theorists of this leaning suggest variously that Mt. Gox's cold storage was, indeed, less "cold" than it had implied to its account holders or that it may simply have lost the keys needed to access its clients' cold storage, leaving hundreds of millions in funds frozen evermore.
You will, of course, reply that this simply indicates poor management on behalf of Mt. Gox (add Flexcoin, the supposed "solver of nearly every Bitcoin security issue" to that list; though in your defense, it appears their cold storage accounts may yet be recoverable), but your dismissiveness here pinpoints my above concerns. Mt. Gox is the largest bank heist in recorded history (outside of Saddam Hussein looting the Iraqi Central Bank ahead of the U.S.-led bombings). Yet its clients have no clear course to restitution and commentators are found remarking "the cause may never be known". I cannot fathom this being an acceptable answer to a heist of some traditional bank, yet your plenary support for the underpinnings of such swift and irrecoverable thefts remains unshaken. I don't see this as the response of a shrewd investor (which, admittedly, I am not and you no doubt are).
But this is exactly what @Edmundo Braverman was saying. The heist at Mt. Gox is a reflection of extremely poor management and a reminder to take matters into your own hands. Security is the sole responsibility of the owner, at least until Bitcoin exchanges can inspire consumer confidence in their security/firewalls. Until then, I'm going to continue transferring each Bitcoin onto my encrypted flash drive, which limits my risk of theft to someone physically stealing the flash drive. I have no idea what Mt. Gox was doing, but you can't view these exchanges in the same light as banks. Mt. Gox was merely a platform for bringing together buyers and sellers, and is by no means an online vault for your Bitcoins.
Also, in regards to Bitcoin as an investment. It's not so much my belief in Bitcoin, but the belief in the technology itself. There could very well be another Bitcoin tomorrow with more popularity, acceptance, and security. But for the first time, there is a method of instantly sending money to anybody on the planet. No bank wires, no fees, no lag. And because the currency has a fixed supply, it automatically hedges itself against inflation. That's got to be worth throwing at least a few dollar at.
Believe me, I'm well aware of the many things that could bring Bitcoin to screeching halt, and it is absolutely not an appropriate investment vehicle for anything other than speculation. That said, I continue to buy because I believe in the technology, and I refuse to miss what could potentially become the Internet of money. Plus I originally got involved at $80, so it's among my biggest winners over the past couple years.
One thing for sure, Russian stocks were dirty cheap yeasterday, wish I had bought more.
From a markets standpoint this is a buying opportunity. Europe is going to buy oil from Russia no matter what, and that oil goes through Ukraine. US energy companies are going to do well given the focus will be to export more to the EU. This is something the US has wanted to do and Putin handed us a political gift because we can't be accused of unfairly shaping the market: it's now part of our policy in the region.
BTC use may surge a bit, but I'm thinking that the pop will be short lived in light of the fallout from MTGOX. Keeping price variable monopoly money in safes in lieu of paying cash or swiping a card is making exponentially less sense when the entire exchange can be looted.
Politically, this is an opportunity for Obama to increase US influence in the region and conveniently put a dent in Russia's economy as a byproduct. Obama hasn't and won't cultivate a "tough guy" image, so this doesn't put a kink in his gait as much as conservatives would like to think it does. That the US has a vastly more powerful military isn't questioned, and I'm not sure what the hawks would have the US do: launch a military campaign in Crimea? Sweet. Let's nuke China too. Not.
Realistically, we're looking at a luke warm trade war and heavy intel ops, the same way we've always dealt with the region. The Russians have been twisting a mustache over Crimea since conceeding it decades ago and Crimea is 60% Russian. I'm not sure who we'd be liberating. The larger problems are 1) Putin is using this as a platform to destabilize Ukraine so he can reinstall his idiot puppet and 2) then using that as leverage against the EU. The solution is pretty simple for the US: throw massive support behind the new Ukrainian government. They won't dare attack them, and it doesn't matter if they don't want to recognize that there was a revolution. Crimea is gone, not unlike if the US decided to take over Cuba, but they've lost Ukraine for good if the US throws in real support. Now, we just use the political leverage to push our economic and political agenda very aggressively.
At the risk of sounding like a Bitcoin fanboi (something I'm genuinely trying to avoid), this is just wrong. Like, just about every word is wrong. Inform yourself.
Sorry to be a raincloud on the bitcoins, I can't help it. The technology is inspiring but I just don't see a future where BTCs replace money. There's a part of me that wishes LSO had attacked BTC instead of Ycombinator.
Honestly, me too. The more haters, and the louder they are, the better. Or so the price would have you believe.
It's amazing how polarizing bitcoin is. We have a hot spot in the world that might lead to a regional if not metaregional war yet we are bickering about bitcoin theft.
+1
WSO
Double post.
I like the picture. Also, "Medvedev" in Russian translates "Bear"
I think if the situation in Ukraine escalates any further, Turkey will get involved as it is a good distraction for Erdoğan, who is embroiled in a massive corruption scandal that could take him and his party down. I think this is just a show of force by Putin, but the outcome could be a split up of Ukraine more along ethnic lines than anything else, with one State being pro-West and the other being v2.0 of Belarus.
If a bunch of unflagged drones started attacking Russian forces in Crimea, would anyone know if they came from Germany? The US? France? Great Britain? Israel?
^ Good call. Everything is right out in the open, and there's media coverage everywhere to pull intel off of. The US could plan an op ahead of time and it would probably take all but a few hours to execute. No offense to Russia, their military is a demoralized, crumbling cold war relic that doesn't stand a shot in hell against ours.
I'm thinking heavy news pressure in Crimea and financial+military support for Ukraine is the way to go.
How the hell do you know they are a "demoralized, crumbling cold war relic"? That would be like me saying "see that group of people over there, they all have 3rd grade reading levels." How could I possibly know that. Just because in your opinion they used antiquated equipment, doesn't mean they are "cold war relics." Last I checked middle east terrorists also use ak-47s.
It is not my ob to educate you. Keep up.
Emerging markets: Ukraine (Originally Posted: 03/03/2014)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/03/ukraine-william-hague-r…
Russia faces "significant diplomatic and economic costs" unless it stops threatening the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, the UK foreign secretary, William Hague, has warned, adding that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, needs to return his forces to their barracks in Crimea.
Speaking on the BBC Today programme, he also urged Russia and Ukraine to start a direct dialogue, warning that Russian intervention represents "certainly the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st century".
Hague was speaking from Kiev, where he was meeting Ukrainian leaders in an act of solidarity before attending a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.
He urged restraint on all sides, saying there were constant risks of miscalculation or a flashpoint. He commended the Ukrainian authorities for "refusing to rise to provocation" and urged them "to stick to that course".
Hague was reluctant to detail the economic sanctions Russia may face, but diplomatic sources pointed out that the Russian economy is more integrated with the west than during the cold war and may suffer reverses on the Russian stock exchange.
David Cameron will chair a special meeting of the National Security Council on Monday to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.
Russian shares were tumbling in Moscow by more than 11% at the time Hague was meeting the new Ukrainian leadership in Kiev. He stressed he could not foresee a satisfactory outcome that left Crimea annexed once again by Russia.
He added: "Be in no doubt, there will be consequences. The world cannot say it is OK to violate the sovereignty of other nations." The costs would be imposed unless the Russians respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, he said.
"This clearly is a violation of the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. If Russia continues on this course we have to be clear this is not an acceptable way to conduct international relations."
Hague denied that western condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was weakened by the allied invasion of Iraq in 2003, saying Ukraine had never represented a threat to Russia or any other nation. Hague claimed the truth was that Putin had "suffered a major diplomatic reverse and was reacting to that".
He suggested the temporary suspension of preparations for the G8 summit due to be hosted by Putin in Sochi in June might become permanent, although the Germans are reluctant to close down one of the chief vehicles of dialogue between Russia and the west.
Hague said the G7 ( the main western economic nations) were entirely capable of co-operating among themselves without Russia and would move speedily in that direction if this crisis could not be resolved.
Hague said he always recognised the relationship between Ukraine and Russia, but at the same time the country could have closer links than at present with the EU.
#
what do you think on what's now happening there and its ultimate impact?
I find invasion unlikely. There are enough troops present in the Crimea to ensure the referendum result is satisfactory for annexation of the region. Invasion is probably necessary to gobble Kharkiv/Luhansk/Donetsk regions, but given that is more than the Western countries could stomach and how many people there are against this kind of action, that would be a very bold and reckless move. If for some reason the invasion takes place, the reaction would be spineless. How the US response is less important than how the EU respond, and the latter are still energy dependent, so I call asset freezes and trade sanctions a bluff.
That said, I am curious why ruble moved less than 0.8% down since Friday.
Crimea was part of Russia until recently, so this is a bit complicated. Realistically, the US has been supplying Europe's defense against Russia for almost a century and it's time the the EU straps a set of balls on and deals with their own shit. I fail to see exactly what the US's military is supposed to do aside from bolstering the Ukraine's military...but the EU could just as easily do so. I'm pretty sure Russia is going to try to destabilize Ukraine as well, so here's an open letter to Putin:
"You fucking moron, didn't you learn your lesson in the Cold War? Congrats at being good at judo but you suck at your job. We're going to fuck your economy in the ass until you look like 1853...or until you love us, whichever comes first."
Sincerely,
NATO
P.S. China, you're the real 'paper tiger' in this relationship, JIK you've ever really wondered. You think you're getting diplomatic leverage backing this, but knock that shit off or we'll decapitate N. Korea's management and turn your festering shithole playground into another South Korea. We'd like to see you upgrade your governing structure out of the 5th century, but in the meantime get back to making $1 shoes and fuzzy dice, and let the responsible adults handle global power management.
I get the poo....but let's be honest, you're thinking this too
Still don't get why everyone thinks the US should get involved in this. It's literally not even close to being our problem.
$10 bil to support ruble, stock market 10%+ down – politics is a quite expensive pleasure.
well, anyways Putin has made his statement with no invasion planned in it, but Russian troops are already in Crimea (unofficially though), what is next?
Crimean War 2: Electric meatgrinder boogaloo.
Investing in Ukraine (Originally Posted: 03/03/2014)
Hi fellow Monkeys,
I am looking into investment opportunities in Ukraine and also writing an investment essay on the topic for an Asset Management company, as it was given as a task for me to do.
So I am asking for your help in reading your opinions on the issue and if you would invest there and in what exactly? I am looking more into mid-to long-term investments, not day-trading.
All comments would be helpful
Wouldn't the current events in the Ukraine discourage one from investing over there for the time being? From what I've been reading in the news recently, it seems a bailout is going to be inevitable for the Ukraine, and apparently a more costly one than in Greece.
I would suggest opportunities in the Crimea region
Wait to see if the situation escalates further. There's a lot of buying opportunities, but why not wait until they go on firesale. If Russia stops at reclaiming Crimea, that's it for now, but the bigger strategy is to destabilize Ukraine to the point of (re)installing someone they can control...and the EU/US aren't really having any of that.
Real estate in Chernobyl is pretty affordable right now.
Between Chernobyl, Crimea and Kiev, its like shooting fish in a barrel!!
If you cold own physical commodities in Ukraine you might be doing well right now. Otherwise, I wouldn't touch it - no one knows what the outcome of this will be. Too many moving parts - further Russian incursion, possible western intervention, IMF bailout, and god knows what type of government will actually emerge from this.
Agreed. Better wait until the dust settles a bit. Plus, you better know a native, have decent contacts, know the laws etc because directly investing in Ukraine will not be a very straightforward process. Unless we're talking about Gov't Bonds or synthetic exposures (selling/buying CDSs etc)
Investing in forex or stock market will be good. because what happen in Ukraine don't encourage. for me i'm investing in forex (currency trading) and i find it good invest, my experience in trading helped me so much
Can't argue with that logic
^ HILARIOUS
Ukraine: What’s going on there and why we should buy Ukraine Bonds (Originally Posted: 03/06/2014)
Putin once replied to a British Diplomat who sat beside him in The Kremlin saying, 'You have Guards with 18th century costumes, why shouldn't we!?' To which the diplomat replied, 'My dear President, you are supposed to be running a forward-looking Russia -- old costumes from Soviet-era films do not cut it'. The memory of the Cold-War lives on this day -- much more than many critics would say. In many ways, the Russian General Staff and Kremlin cold-era mindset has not changed substantially. Russia has always been keen to hold on to the Crimean bases on the Black Sea since the time of Peter the Great. The large facilities include Sevastopol Dock, Sevastopol Airfield near Belbek, the base of Novo-Ozyorne, and airfield near Kerch.
However, there a number of tailwinds for the Ukrainian economy as well, and something that has been significantly undervalued are Ukraine's bonds. As the Ukraine becomes a closer American ally, the chances of cooperation on a military and economic level are gaining traction. What is likely is: 1) Russia will most likely not grow at all due to future American restrictions on capital imports and given perspective investor flight for the next 2 years 2) Ukraine bonds are a great buy. They are way too cheap given, very soon, they will be supported by either the IMF, USAID, or both. The Ukraine, like others who became allies, is likely to be bailed out by the U.S. or EU should push comes to shove. Like Mexico, Jordan, Iraq, Afghanistan, and many more, it will come under our financial protection even if it can't come under our direct military protection.
Often analysts forget that if a geopolitical move that can create panic and drastically reduce the price of a particular instrument, that there are many more such moves that can increase it as well.
Presenting an analysis considers the institutional memory of Cold War era tactics that are alive and well, there are three key areas to consider here 1) the interests at play now that Russia has consolidated its bases in the Crimea given the amount of international condemnation will, likely, occur 2) the relationship the crisis has with the bond market, and 3) given the memory of what has gone on, militarily and strategically, in the area and what this could mean for the future.
In terms of interests, it is highly unlikely the Ukraine, the United States and NATO, will decide to send troops as a blocking force to stop further aggression, despite both militaries have a surprising amount of experience with joint-operations with the fledgling, inadequately numbered, but well-motivated Ukrainian Arm that include Operation Rapid Trident (2011). The U.S. European Command’s Joint Training and Exercise Program with the Ukraine does include scenarios to help out the Ukraine all short of sending armed, uniformed, American Special Operations Forces there.
We will send DIA/DOD-funded contractors out to help train their army, CIA agents to fund it, and that will be the extent of that. In terms of soft-power, the loan guarantees are the backbone of America's economic "soft power". Recently, Jordan, secured a large loan guarantee. Given the ongoing fighting in Syria, the Jordanian economy has taken a hit. Iraq, of course, continues to take large guarantees. Following Hillary Clinton's view of "smart power", the number of loan guarantees to countries is as high as during the height of the Cold War in the 1960s. In a way, future loan guarantees for the Ukraine would definitely not be new development given the circumstances.
Sometimes the guarantees can be given quite irrationally. In one extreme example in 1990, we played both sides: Kurdistan and Turkey. Using the Pentagon's Defense Export Loan Guarantee program we helped Kurdistan in the early 1990s and to stop Saddam's aggression and rehabilitate the Kurdish para-military forces. At the same time, using the Pentagon's Defense Export Loan Guarantee program, we had the American Export-Import Bank make a special one-time military loan to Turkey in support of a $1.3 billion deal for Connecticut-built Black Hawk helicopters. By helping Turkey by selling them our Blackhawk helicopters, they continue firing American-made hellfire rockets that kill Kurdish civilians in places where a Kurdish (and now American-paid for) pipeline has been built near the Turkish border.
Generally, the business of soft power is never black and white, and economically, the next year means American sanctions, mostly financial in the most highly likely case, that will draw out the ire of Putin and his allies. Even so, the chances of this ending smoothly without some form of a military altercation is low. Most importantly, and as to why you're here, this might also be a good time to buy Ukraine bonds too.
In every scenario the Russians are boxed in with their occupation forces in the Crimea could be forced to either (1) leave if surrounded, (2) take over the Crimea and perhaps incorporate it into Russia as it had been for centuries, or (3) fight and occupy parts of the east of Ukraine to gain leverage.
Should the Russians act more aggressively in the Crimea, the Ukrainians are actually well placed to act should the war explode -- something the Russian military must be keenly aware of -- and the Ukrainians can block the Crimea or to help enforce some kind of police action by blockading bottlenecks on that peninsula (a feature that looks like the illustrated helix version of the chemical, adenine). The Russians lack a large airbase to use near Kiev, and their insignificant lift capability center around small airfields around the Arabat Spit and Kerch, limits their force to something around 10,000 strong.
Additionally, the eastern part of the Ukraine is an open area and one of future contention (and perhaps Moldova, that had the highest-enlistment rate for the Soviet war in Afghanistan, in the future as well). Places near Donetsk, where that great football team resides, are quite pro-Russian and are important rail and pipeline junctures to the Ukraine.
At a microscopic level, the 76th are considered equivalent to our United States Ranger Regiment given both their main capabilities include the ability to be airlifted within a 18-hour period for military or humanitarian emergencies, special reconnaissance missions, and above all airport seizures, are not meant for defending cities. The Spetznas are our Green Berets.
Indications include why Putin didn’t want to use the Alpha Group or other forms of Russian Special Forces (Spetznas) as well is simply is due to their lack of girth, their lack of discipline, their small numbers and limited logistics capabilities are systematic of small and large units in the Russian Army. He will likely use them to incite loyalty among the pro-Russian support in the east of the Ukraine if he can, given their unconventional warfare capabilities.
These limitations means those on the ground would be uniquely suited to two capabilities: airborne troops in the Crimea to control small, strategic areas will be a kind of pincer movement as Russian Special Forces to the East to incite local rebellion.
In the long-memory of war in the Ukraine, few forget the battles that paratroopers carried out in 1942/43 as elements of the German 22nd Air Landing Division had done much the same when fighting Russians. While the Russians fly in their first and probably only real combat troops to the vicinity, the elite Russian light-infantry 76th Airborne Brigade (VDV), a unit of where many movies have been made about them as they are considered the elite vanguard of the Russian conventional army. The likelihood is that they will remain in those bases.
Remembering the German paratroopers airlifted and proceeded to occupy key towns and air strips, as the terrain of the area makes it unfeasible to move about outside large communications arteries. A more recent example was the airport seizure of Pristina Airport in 1993. There, Russian paratroopers seized it and gained significant leverage from doing so.
The Spetsnaz in the Afghan War, and many veterans in the leadership will remember this, fought in the far east and far south the country. They were in places like Helmand, Kunar, Nuristan, and so on. They dropped operatives behind enemy lines with and linked up with small Spetsnaz raiding parties to create havoc in the Taliban lines (especially in the case of the siege of Kandahar and Jalalabad). The Spetsnaz, like a unit they sometimes have come to ironically identify with, the the German Brandenburgers and specifically sub-unit SS-Jäger-Bataillon Ost who served north of Rostov-on-Don, will likely try to underpin their usefulness in unconventional warfare by inciting a number of anti-Russian supporters across eastern Ukraine. Given the expanse of the eastern Ukrainian steppe, region, this was an incredible force multiplier.
I imagine that the future months will see the Russians obtaining greater degrees of leverage: holding those bases and consolidating the Crimea politically and moving its unconventional units to incite pro-Russian militia units in the east.
It's ok, if there is a war the US will come 3 years late as usual....
longest sentences ever written.
I would suggest that you play the Total War game series, but I am sure you already have. All in all, that's a great blueprint for the next Michael Bay flick.
US and EU have no stomach for a fight. Just the threat of economic sanctions packed more than enough of a punch to scare Putin and his oligarchs. The mass uprisings of Russian speakers in the rest of the Ukraine never materialized. Putin rattled his saber, is going to be able to keep his fleet in Crimea, who will most likely remain as some sort of autonomous group in the Ukraine. That said, if you think war is coming you don't want to own any kind of assets in that region.
Although I'm not as well-informed as OP, here's how I see it playing out:
Russia will stay in the Crimea until a referendum vote is held (the Crimea government has already passed legislation calling for a vote). The results will be pro-Russia, and that will take the wind out of the sails of the international players who are condemning Putin (not saying it should, but it will). This will be all Putin needs to annex the Crimea.
The West will take their stand by warning, "don't enter mainland Ukraine." Putin will not, as he has no interest in the whole country. He is not trying to take over all of Europe like Hitler; he's after the money that flows through the warm-water port in the Crimea. Western leaders will try to save face back home by toting Russia's obedience to their demands as a diplomatic victory. This will not be received well.
I really do not see the US entering direct military conflict over there, but what do I know.
Well written, detailed. +1.
So you basically think some kind of war among the two biggest nuclear powers is coming. You're also a distressed credit analyst. And you wanna buy bonds of the warzone? And you wanna do this today?
I suppose the next article could be "How to make a killing off of post-war countries, with large amounts of in-coming IMF, World Bank, and other NGO aid".
Don't forget, junk bonds are value -- especially when a war finishes and there are international guarantees for its debt.
I should note the Russians have finally realised that should have taken Sevastopol and the military base that holds it: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26492053
Russian helicopters invading ukraine right now (Originally Posted: 02/28/2014)
//www.youtube.com/embed/rc53ke-YWms?rel=0
hahaha At the end, dude nonchalantly as fuck is like, 'alrightie then.'
Reminds me of when that meteor struck and not a single fuck was given by all of the drivers of cars with cameras running... which they have running to avoid being blackmailed and shit...
Inb4 Obama is way more aggressive in response to this than anyone anticipated.
If this is based on reports from yesterday then Russia confirmed it was troop transport from Sochi.
US invades Iraq and Afghanistan, no one bats an eye; Russia invades Ukraine, everyone loses their minds
Situation in Ukraine (Originally Posted: 03/03/2014)
I am following this pretty closely, but would like to hear/have a thoughtful discussion regarding the topic. I am sure there are some Euro monkey's out there that can give a differently perspective. Maybe some people close to the scene.
Apparently, Russia didn't learn its lesson from the Cold War. Neither did the giant paper tiger that is China. No matter, the US will run a EU op from behind the scenes (what do you think NATO is for?) and maybe the EU will just surprise everyone and deal with a problem on their own for once.
In the US, the politicians will argue the full spectrum of options however benefits them, ranging from isolationism to direct military action against Russia. For all the media chatter of every little issue being "Obama's biggest challenge"....this just might actually be. Realistically, the US is willing to concede back to Russia what was always really theirs (Crimea) in order to have a focal point from which to take the moral high ground in public discourse.
It also might be a huge opportunity to push harder in that region, especially now that Russia clearly crossed the line first: in the big picture, this is a PR coup for the US.
I'm sick of hearing about this shit. Everyone needs to get new sources from outside the US. Many news reports from outside of the US are saying that the "Russian troops" are actually just local militia volunteers in the Crimean area. Who are mostly unarmed, and completely peaceful. What are they doing there you ask? They are keeping the people from Kiev from spreading to the region. The region is something like 80% Russian nationals. The economy in the Ukraine is so horrendous that it couldn't survive in the EU if forced to accept the Euro. Everyone here needs to quit acting like the world is going to end if Russian influence in the Ukraine increases. We sit around and wag our fingers at Russia for "invading" Georgia a few years ago when in reality it was Georgian terrorists that attacked a bunch of Russian nationals. Yet what did the US do when Arab terrorists attacked Americans. Wait that's right, we invaded two countries and bombed the shit out of them.
Very good perspective. And I totally agree.
The US is being a total hypocrite about it, when they've done the exact same thing several times. And further to the situation in Georgia - remember how the US gave a false presence of support as if they would stick through until the end, then as soon as Russia flexed their arm and showed that they weren't willing to just lie down on the situation, they were nowhere to be seen.
The fact is the US has nothing to gain from this, so should stay out of it. And the rest of Europe has no bargaining power - it's already been established that Germany, France and other euro nations are not willing to put sanctions on the table as they can't afford that. Let's look at it from a larger picture as Heister said, we should all know better to read between the lines instead of what you're being fed, come on.
OK a couple of points for you monkeys to consider...
People in Crimea are definitely not peaceful militias. They are Russian army taking over Ukrainian military bases. 100%. Latest news for your consideration - Russian forces demand Ukrainian military in Crimea to surrender before 5AM or they will force themselves into the compounds. Not peaceful. Also not necessary to take over military bases and airports 'to protect interests of ethnic Russians'.
The whole issue of 'keeping people from Kiev out' is imaginary. There is no actual threat for ethnic Russians. Current UA government is not Nazi/Fascist or whatever it is labelled by RU media and further escalation/ ethnic conflict is of 0 benefit to them. Look up the current leadership if interested - many ethnic Russians and Jews amongst them, nobody from far right...
It is much bigger than Crimea. Although it might seem ridiculous now (just like the current situation seemed out of this world a week ago), Russian plans are reaching at least as far as Eastern areas - Kharkiv/Donetsk/Lugansk/etc.
My opinion: Russia is being smart. They have a perfect post-revolutionary moment to secure not only the territories that, as you said, are originally Russian but also assert their control over eastern Ukraine (today the govt registered a bill that provides framework for adding territories to RU). US will definitely keep quiet - at least on the military front. Clearly Putin couldn't give less shit about G8/sanctions (might be his mistake?). VERY complicated situation. I do not see it ending well. Any spark can result in an armed conflict and there is a very high probability of a divided Ukraine. I also do not see UA avoiding default... there is so much debt to repay and no liquidity in the country.
Just my 2c... typing from a tablet so apols for spelling
@"heister" Agree, I've been reading BBC and some other foreign policy sites.
I personally think the US should keep quite. We have a habit of unilateral invasions and actions, yet when Russia does something on their own border, involving ethnic Russians, the US "threatens" them.
Furthermore, no one is talking about the right-wing element involved in this overthrow. Or the fact that EU inclusion will involve austerity measures.
EU != Eurozone
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divi…
Take a look at the cultural divide - doesn't seem impossible that the troops are actually local in Crimea
I'm hoping Obama's playing a deep game here...
Also, there is a joint Ukrainian/Russian naval station in the area that all news organizations seem to completely gloss over. Also a big huge BS flag that should be flying. What did we (the US) do when we invaded Iraq? We bombed the shit out of them. Have the Russians been doing massive bombing runs? If they have then they are doing a damn good job about keeping it off of the internet and out of the media.
I've been reading a lot of stuff, not just RU news, talking about right wing elements in this uprising movement.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25826238
Stormfront is all a chatter about the nationalists taking over.
Well, true, they played a huge role in the revolution. However they have no constitutional power in the new govt, right. And even then - yes, they are a significant proportion of those who shot at the police and ran towards the bullets on the streets a week ago, but are in extreme minority by any other measure.
Also, to expand on this topic, lets post some sites people are following to get unbiased (aka not CNN/Fox/MSNBC) type news.
I am reading BBC, Foreign Policy and Project Syndicate.
I'm not reading it, but Russia Today would be very interesting to read just to see their perspective. There is always 2 sides to a story (or many more nowadays).
And for those of you looking to catch up, here is a really good timeline of events:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/timeline-ukraine-political…
+1. Nice find. Aside from the occasional boneheaded article that I can only assume garners them the ear of their core constituency, AJ is really a shooting news star lately.
For all you guys talking about the U.S. bombing Iraq...very different political motivations here. The U.S. did not draw up a bill for the express purpose of annexing either Afghanistan or Iraq. Our goal was regime change, whereas Russia is clearly seeking territorial expansion a la Hitler and Stalin in the 30s, 40s and 50s. For anyone who thinks this is not a big deal, think again. Putin is steamrolling Obama yet again.
He's steamrolling the EU...it's time they started handling their own light work instead of assuming the US will. And the motivation is the same: this is pure power politics in the pursuit of expanding the reach of the respective nation. While Obama's reaction leaves a lot to be desired at this point, I'm not on board with the GOP party line.
You're a tad smarter than some of the commentary on here, but really, think a little harder.
The media is blowing this WAY out of proportion. Just like every other 'international crisis' we've had for the last 5 years, absolutely nothing about this will wind up affecting Americans on a day to day basis.
When NATO meets in an emergency meeting, in no way could that be construed as the media blowing the issue out of proportion.
Not spouting GOP party lines here. Putin has done a lot of damage to himself - his justification for invasion that consists of protecting Russian speakers in neighboring countries will send former Soviet allies scurrying for newfound alliances with the West. Nobody wants to be the next domino in Putin's playset. What I'm talking about is the immediate reaction by foreign leaders (in this case, Obama) to a red alert scenario in which one nation has explicitly violated the sovereignty of another nation. This called for an immediate freeze of top Russians' assets in the United States, a freeze-out of Russia from the G8 and all other international economic/political councils, and the announcement of the acceleration of the development of the U.S. missile shield in Eastern Europe. That neither Obama, nor Merkel, nor Cameron, nor Hollande have announced such sanctions in the 72+ hours since Russia's initial incursion sets a dangerous internatioanl precedent.
I agree. Poland is freaked out since they called on an emergency meeting of NATO. I'm not an Eastern Europe expert, but from what I've gathered, 80 years of Russian oppression, murder, terror, persecution, has left much of Eastern Europe with an incredibly low opinion of Russia, and the idea that Russia would violate them again is like a nightmare. Russia's treatment of Ukraine during the Soviet era has left so much hatred for Russia in the Ukraine that the people in the western portion of Ukraine don't even want the Russian language to be legally spoken there. Goes to show how emotionally charged the situation is.
Stop saying "the Ukraine." It's just Ukraine.
Слава Україні
This whole thing started with Ukraine's financial problems. Ukraine was trying to work out a deal with the IMF but Russia offered them a $15 billion bailout. The bailout included subsidies for oil. Ukraine does not have its own independent source for oil and actually depends on the Russia to provide it. Russia have turned off Ukraine's gas many times in the past. The majority of people in Ukraine wanted to work with the European Union however Russia's influence on Ukraine (because of the bail out, and the oil subsidies, as well as threats to cut off all access to oil) made the Ukrainian government side with Russia as opposed to working out the trade deal with the European Union. The people of Ukraine were extremely upset and protested. Eventually protests that were peaceful turned violent. Some of the protests where co-opted by Neo Nazi organizations, and other extremely right wing (and violent) individuals.
The government then made a series of anti-protest laws that were fucking stupid. For example, simply protesting in front of a building and making it harder for people to enter that building can get you 6 years in prison. If you gather with a group and simply talk negatively about certain members of the government you can now get as much as 2 years in prison. The laws had the opposite effect and made the protestors even more violent. Within a matter of days the laws were repealed and eventually the protesters successfully ousted the prime minister (who now has been seen in Moscow). The government started negotiating with the protestors. Progress and financial independence from Russia seemed inevitable. This made Putin very angry because this meant that Ukraine would switch their allegiance from Russia to the European Union and the IMF.
Its said that Putin wants to create a post communist Eurasian union which Kazakhstan and Belarus have already agreed to join. Many believe that this union is simply a disguise for combining all the post-communist countries into one huge organization resembling the USSR once again. This is the crux of the protesters argument. Putin believes that even though he has gained support for this union in other post communist countries, the protests in Ukraine might remove some of the successes he has gained. Furthermore, this could potentially stop other post communist countries from joining the union, thus he is putting military pressure to ensure that the protests do not leak to other post communist Eastern European nations.
The WWIII aspect plays into this because Ukraine is requesting NATO support, which the US is part of, but this is not just limited to United States, Ukraine and Russia. NATO consists of 28 sovereign countries that have agreed to support each other militarily in case they are invaded. Many of those countries have other alliances which would increase the number of nations involved in any potential military intervention. The US has warned Russia as has have many other countries that their actions "have consequences".The question now is what will Russia do? If they don't leave will NATO take military action against Russia? If so, will China support Russia? Pretty soon this could escalate to into war with 35+ countries engaging in military action. Personally, I don't think we'll get there - but it is a real risk, and one that needs serious thought on how it can be avoided without Putin having to go back with his tail between his legs. If he can't save face this can start another Cold War. Basically, nothing to do with the US.
And Russia exports both gas and oil to Ukraine. And Russia's economy is close to stagnation - they cannot afford to not export their gas and oil.
This is misguided on a whole variety of levels... Specifically, the EU has no interest in even imposing sanctions on Russia, let alone getting involved militarily. So the likelihood of some sort of NATO retaliation is exceedingly low.
There are other rather glaring inaccuracies in your account, but no point going through the specifics...
The entire situation is about natural gas. This whole thing will slowly start to fade away as spring gets closer and closer then will come back to a boil when late fall and early winter comes back around in 2014. The US angle here is natural gas as well. If we can cause some sort of crisis that provokes Russia into shutting off the gas to Ukraine and the EU then we can set in a fill the vacuum created by the absence of Russian gas. Granted this would have been much easier had the environmental terrorists not been constantly protesting the building of the Keystone XL pipeline. Its really ironic these people are protesting a pipeline that is much more environmentally friendly than driving trucks full of gas up and down the road every day.
When you look at this whole situation in real objective terms it comes down to two things, money and gas. Everyone on the outside looking in could really give zero fucks about the peoples suffering, those are just merely great excuses to get in there and try and push our agenda.
There wasn't a three-month protest followed by violent revolution because of money and gas. The reasons you stated are a consideration, and possibly the primary one for the States, but not for the actual players.
Putin is a fucking crazy person who wants to rebuild the Soviet Union. Nat gas exporting isn't his primary consideration; he has grander goals. They'll find someone to sell fucking gas to either way. Ukraine lies in a pivotal geographic location and Putin can't proceed with his empire-building without it.
While I think there is merit with the nat gas angle, the US hasn't reversed the flow of enough of those Cali/Louisiana terminals to supply Europe if they got cut off. Maybe this will be the driving force towards doing so, but I do not think we are there yet. Too many domestic companies benefiting from low cost and essentially trapped natural gas.
As I stated earlier that the entire situation is based on gas and money, here is a NYT article that says the same thing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0
I think it's not just about gas and money, although that's definitely a part of it. There's a lot of real politik going on here. This is an interesting perspective, for example: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/opinion/what-putin-really-wants.html
Politics and human suffering has always been useful when trying to implement policy or start wars to influence or promote economic policies in regions outside of ones sovereign territory.
Nice find, thanks for sharing. Only thing I take issue with is OPs assertation that the US is a foreign policy simpleton. A regional oligarch manages to reclaim speck of its own territory after 50 years leading to a PR coup for the US: who's the real simpleton here?
Keep slinging the shit around guys but if you think that any politicians actually care about the people in the region over their own and the goals of their donors, well keep your heads in the sand.
Nobody is suggesting that the politicians care about the people in the region. I think the only point is that there's more to geopolitical maneuvering than what can be measured with spot cashflow. There's also power, long-term strategic advantage, future cashflows, etc.
-
I am not sure who pissed in my Cheerios this morning either, but you accidentally took my bowl. My point was that having a "dictator" or dictator go isn't sufficient to call "revolution" or revolution a success. Yanukovich was ousted in 2004 during the Orange Revolution 1.0. That didn't work out. In 2007 they had early elections and shifted power from president Yushchenko to government of Tymoshenko. That didn't work out either. Is it third time lucky? An oligarch, a thief and a boxer? Is it beginning of a joke?
My hope is that the US backs them this time. Look at South Korea and Western Europe: they're the direct result of America's support. Look at Afghanistan....they're the product of US neglect after the Soviets left, and now after a punative+resource war. Obama's primary fault in foreign affairs is that he's so worried about distancing himself from Bush's legacy that he's not doing enough. Run a decapitation strike on Assad, he's helping Russi in Ukraine now. Make an open, public offer to Ukraine to have American troops/warplanes parked on their border. Subsidize American oil sales to Europe. And let loose the Natural Gas industry in the US for Christ's sake. Everyonen KNOWS BY NOW that Obama isn't a political profiteer who exists to hook up the oil companies, but there's no sense in hampering industry to make the environmental lobby happy. Construct harsh and thorough regulation to make sure fracking doesn't fuck up the water supply and create an series of superfund sites and then start drilling dammit. And another thing: fuck all these GOP assholes that are gloating over the solyndra thing. Reality check: fossil fuel is by definition finite.....keep pumping R&D money and seed money into the alternatives sector because that's all we have in the long term. Algea petrolium farms, solar, we all know the drill. I'm pretty annoyed with people playing politics with this stuff.
Some people think we shouldn't involve ourselves in the world, and while I'm not advocating lunacy like the 2003 war, we definitely should.
And yes, the situation is strange over there given the folks in the limelight. Truth is stranger than fiction.
This is fascinating insight into the mind of a genuine, honest-to-god American foreign policy hawk... Thank you!
Would you mind if I asked you a couple of questions?
Honestly, in current time I'd much rather have the Russians putting terrorists down. Currently in America we have a bunch of apologists in power that have limp wrists. Our own President chastised Romney for saying that Russia was going to be causing problems in the near future (now). The President has laid out so many unenforced lines in the sand that anyone with a brain would be less worried about the US doing any real damage then they would be by local guerrilla groups.
....I'm not a hawk. I'm an internationalist
Anyone see China releasing that white paper analyzing our human rights violations? The tide is turning for the US. We've been the sole superpower for so long that we have forgotten what it is like to have people not listen to us.
Putin is reacting exactly how the US would and has reacted. IMO, the US should stay the hell out of this issue and let Russia deal with an obviously local, self interested issue.
Also, this is what happens when you have arbitrary lines defining a country/populace. Many of the problems in the ME can be traced to British cartography. I think some of that is in play here also.
^ +1. Probably so. It's also a primary factor in Africa, but another conversation for another day. In a way, Crimea leaving Ukraine removes a huge pro-Russia voting bloc that's been a primary thorn in the side of anyone trying to build up Ukraine's ability to thrive as an independant nation. 60% of Crimea is Russian, and probably another 10 to 20 percent is pro-Russian....and it used to be part of Russia. I really don't like the mafia takeover tactics that Russia's using, and I'd personally be losing my mind if I was living in Crimea, but this is a gift in disguise to Ukraine and Western Europe. They're free of this ball and chain. Plus, Crimea is run at a net loss, so now that's Russia's problem.
The China paper was kind of strange. They make a bunch of points that were more true maybe ten years ago, but I'm actually glad they're speaking more frankly lately. China isn't stupid either, they realize that their fate is very deeply intertwined with ours. Still, America does have to come to terms with the decline of relative power. It's only a bad thing if we make it so. Realistically, the US is a couple of hundred million people in a world with billions of people. There's nothing saying we can't improve our own defense and wealth, I think we're not even close to where we could be....but others will do so as well. The primary problem I see though, is that countries like Russia and China are in direct contrast to our way of life. China is a dictatorship. Russia is a resource despotism run by mobsters. Cynics aside, we're the real democratic people's republic by comparison (not saying the US is perfect, but really, we're way ahead).
The one thing I think betrays Russia's position is Putin's explicit anti-US attitude. Like he's rebelling against a parent. If Russia wants to assert themselves, they really need to make the case on its own merits. Just like French socialists who would cut off their nose to spite the face of America, there's barely any PR advantage to defining themselves against us. Were it not for us, they'd still be in the communist 19th century, with bans on science and all. Big picture, Russia has the resources to be extremely wealthy, and not just the few politically connected crooks in Moscow....everyone. That their labor force is so underutilized and their system so behind the times isn't the US's fault. It's theirs. When they take ownership of that, I think we'll see a truly wealthy Russia
Until then, they're a bunch of thugs who use oil as an extortion leverage chip. Sad. They could have so much more.
Such is life.
I mean we are one of only a few countries that execute people, put minors in solitary, water board prisoners and keep them in limbo (Gitmo). We restrict gay marries, abortion and put young minorities in jail for small drug charges. We just recently instituted national healthcare-ish.
We've also started a couple wars and drone kill countless others.
See, I am cool with all this, but then again I am an asshole. Far too many people think we are the bright shinning light of freedom when in reality we are flawed just like everyone else.
And Putin is reacting in Russia's best interest. An elected government was overthrown and part of that country, that is largely Russian and autonomous (also holding a key Russian naval port) looks to be siding with Russia. In a world where countries fight for resources and power, Russia is acting like a rational agent. The US (aka NATO) is encroaching on their doorstep and they want to have a buffer.
IMO, Russia has historically survived invasion by drowning invaders in acquired land. I realize the world has changed, but having a land buffer is still important. Imagine if Mexico became Communist and anti-American. We'd feel pretty vulnerable also.
Yup. I tend to regard America as a very 'human' good guy who tries to do the right thing but is definitely not perfect. When they're not kvetching along the lines of some short term angle.....most other people in most other countries will admit the same.
For now, it seems that the markets don't even care. I really thought we'd see a bit more of a dip.
UFO is still deluded. America can be pretty awesome at times, but it's not THAT great, and they don't even 'try' to do the right thing. TNA and Martinghoul have summed it up perfectly, and I agree that too many people think America is a 'shining light' when in fact it's acting purely out of self interest and is as flawed as many others.
UFO, you're writing makes everything sound like the US should be superior to Russia and everywhere else. You have a problem with anything that points to the contrary and you're writing is always (whether consciously or not) structured in a way where the US is made to sound like the natural winner regardless of situation or context. You'd be great at propoganda writing
I think Putin's just getting started. He'll be eyeing the Baltic states next.
Gonna be tougher since many of them are in the EU and NATO. Invading a NATO member state is an act of war.
don't be naive, every country has its own interests – same for U.S., same for Russia. no heroes and right guys.
@"DCDepository": He doesn't have to invade. All he has to do is manufacture a crisis and rig a referendum to get them to leave the EU and join his "customs union."
It's not as far-fetched as it sounds. All 3 of those countries have large ethnic Russian populations, a heavy trade balance with Russia, and a high level of anti-EU resentment.
Those 3 would be whacked hardest in the event of a trade embargo, giving Putin that much more of an in.
Taking Crimea is going to be a lot different than taking Estonia. Countries that join NATO join it for basically the same reason--hatred for and protection from Russia.
It's funny to think of how the US media would be reporting America's response to this issue if there was a Republican in office. It would be much different imo.
Bump.
Well folks, it's happening again. "Pro-Russian rebels" in eastern Ukraine have seized Kharkiv, they'll hold a bogus, fixed referendum and ask Putin to rescue them from the "illegitimate, corrupt, fascist" government in Kiev, and that part of the country will be his with no effort.
But the Ron Paul supporters on WSO and around the nation will say that any referendums should be recognized as legitimate, no matter how obviously corrupted they are.
The Crimean referendum reminded me of when Henry Ford said that you could have any color Model T Ford you wanted, so long as it was black.
@DCDepository : I haven't seen any legitimate news source claim the Crimea vote was objective and fair. These are Putin's tactics. No invasion necessary if they "invite" him in.
Very little will be done about this.
That is too fucking clever.
Legitimate news source? I've been in a debate with dozens of Ron Paul people who have said Crimea simply exercised its right to secede. I don't need a "news source" to tell me what I've talked to Paul people about.
@DCDepository : I meant "legitimate" in contrast to Putin's propaganda machine, which is portraying Ukraine's interim government as illegitimate, anti-Semitic, and fascist.
Boeing 777 got shot down over Ukraine : At least 295 deaths (Originally Posted: 07/17/2014)
A civilian plane with 295 passengers on board crashed in Donestsk in all likelihood after being shot by missile. Since several days It's the fourth plane flying over russian controlled area to be shot down by Pro-russians but it's the first civil one.
It's again a hard blow for Malaysian Airlines which is facing a crash for the second time this year.
I guess Pro-Russians confounded an ennemy ukrainian fighter with the one which got shot today. I know some heat signatures can be similar between those airplanes and human error still exists.
Source : http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/malaysian-airlines-plane…
Already a thread about it on here
I'm glad to hear they finally found this plane so we have some closure on what the aircraft's path was
As tragic as this is, I really hope this stirs the U.S. to more severe action than Obama's bitch ass sanctions. McCain's been talking shit.
I'm just saying even though it took like 3-4 months at least we now know what happened to that airliner and can stop searching in the south pacific. Surprising how far off target we were with the search.
Weight wat????
Come on man! keep up with the times.
Look guys I'm not an air traffic controller so go easy on me. I'm just happy the aircraft is finally found. I guess those pilots just went rogue or something.
I started laughing so hard I almost fell out of my chair. Please be trolling.
You are hilarious! but I would punch you if were within my arms' reach.
lolnotsureiftrollornot
this is another plane u bulbasaur
They used two planes? You guys are such conspiracy theorists here.
omfg, this is some Ken M level shit
For real, I am baffled at this shit. How is the world putting up with this? Pro-Russian separatists? They're not fucking separatists. They're fucking Putin's people. Who is actually fooled. The Russian regime is still run by the same people who ran the USSR, tried hard as fuck to block all foreign influence, didn't let people leave the country, had people tortured, killed, and sent to fucking labor camps for saying the wrong thing, and thought communism was a good idea.
This regime is openly incredibly hateful and oppressive and doesn't give a shit about anybody else on this planet. These people are fucking lunatics. Why is the world putting up with them bullying an independent nation and shooting down fucking civilian aircraft as Putin sits there lying through his teeth? And the whore Obama fucking shakes hands with him.
How is North Korea still a fucking thing too? This is 2014 and barbarism like this is happening right now and nobody gives a fuck. We make fucking multi million dollar movies mocking a nation that slaughters its own people on the reg and call it a day. What kind of humans run this world.
Sounds like you're having an existential crisis there Goldie.
I 100% agree with your assessment of the separatist militia pro Russian whatever they call themselves and the link to Putin. If it weren't so tragic it would be comical how he's trying to pretend, and for some reason the world is buying it to some degree, that these guys aren't simply Russian paramilitaries under his control. Putin gives then weapons, sits his army on the border and tells these guys to fight but because the only thing he didn't give them are Russian army uniforms they're not connected to him. It's amazing.
The problem with NK is that they have nukes and the great eternal superman leader, or whatever he calls himself, is crazy enough to use them.
@GoldenCinderblock - Also, haven't you guys noticed that no one likes it when American comes to save the day? Sure, they may prefer the outcome to the alternative, but they don't express much gratitude to you.
Examples - Koreans regularly complaining about American troop presence, despite their insane northern brothers. Europeans who gripe about Americans. Iraqis. Afghanis. Everyone.
Also (eg in Iraq), you guys have a tendency to fix one issue and fuck things up in a whole different way because, like George Bush, you expect women and kids to line the streets throwing flowers chanting "U-S-A! U-S-A! Thank you for giving us the gifts of democracy, Mickey Mouse and Kim Kardashian!".
Whenever you've tried to stop this shit happening, you've usually played a big part in facilitating other shit happening. More people have likely died in Iraq than if you'd left Saddam in place and it's not like Maliki's government has offset that through wonderous freedom.
My view is that most Western countries got to where they are only by fucking themselves up through civil wars so much that the factions in those countries finally woke up and realised it's better not to be arseholes to each other. The EU seems to be the same phenomenon on a transnational scale.
You can't deliver the lessons of that to cultures who have never gone through that sort of self-inflicted suffering. Just like you can't grab a teenager when you're in your 30s and expect him to comprehend the "life wisdom" you impart to him.
This is why Bush's grand vision of delivering democracy to the Middle East via Iraq was so naive.
tbt
//www.youtube.com/embed/v6fmQZx9nko
Take notes Obama.
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