I'm going to join in all the other countless people who are making their "predictions" for 2013 and would welcome yours as well! Here we go:
- Moodys will downgrade the US in the first half of 2013 - Political deadlock and rapidly increasing debt-to-GDP along with a trillion-dollar deficit will cause Moodys to follow S&P and downgrade the US
- We will be pushed the brink of warfare between Israel and Iran around the summer - Although we will be close to war, I don't believe that Israel will have the backing of the US and will not actually do anything openly, but will continue with it's "covert" war and assassinations
- Germany will enter a recession and the Eurozone will suffer yet more turmoil, but not until the later half of the year - Policy makers and central bankers have done enough to keep people happy for a few months, but this Europe problem is nowhere near solved. Greece will move out of the spotlight and Spain / France will become more important
- RIMM will be bought out or go under - BlackBerry 10 will be a flop, the share price will plummet and there will either be a buyout by a PE firm or one of the bigger players (Nokia / Microsoft joint bid?)
- Twitter will IPO - Twitter will follow Facebook and IPO to much hype and speculation, but will have a better post-IPO performance than Facebook did.
Those are some of mine - lets hear yours!
Rimm will probably go private, and the PE firm will benefit greatly.
My predictions:
The Supreme Court will kill Affirmative Action and rule the DOMA unconstitutional.
At least one conflict will escalate out of current bad tensions. Whether it's a China/Japan showdown over some stupid island, Israel bombing the hell out of Iran, or North and South Korea getting into a spat, I think something will boil over with the next 12 months.
Obama will try some effort at gun control or immigration. Gun control is probably the less likely of the two, as it would blow through alot of political capital to get anything past. He has, however, been promising some kind of immigration reform to the "unauthorized immigrant" community since his first term. Whether it's a big deal (unlikely) or a smaller deal (most likely) we'll have to see. I can tell you though it would be a complete 180 from any other industrialized nation (some kind of "amnesty" for illegals already in the US, lack of focus on bringing in educated and/or wealthy people vs. uneducated and/or poor people, and more openness in a time of high unemployment).
The US will see subpar growth, for many various reasons. Unemployment will still be shit, and may actually go up (if the 9.5 million people who dropped out of the workforce reenter). People will still see their pay continue to decline, and rich people will still be hated for being rich. Such is the world.
Interesting projections.
Re Israel/Iran: people have been predicting the "escalation" for 5+ years now
Dunno how I feel about twitter, highly doubt the revenue from their "promoted tweets" scheme will be enough to convince investors to buy into the IPO
Reading 'same shit as last year' doesn't turn heads.
What is head turning is people 'predicting' that tension will turn to war because of...
...they must forget that part
-- double post --
Continued lack luster economic performance by the U.S. (economic growth will occur but at a tepid rate)
Tech IPOs will do better, big data will become more commercial, and tablets will dominate consumer electronic sales.
The GOP will re-engineer their public image. The Tea Party will be left behind as the Republican power shifts from the more conservative wings of the party to the moderate. They will still scream for spending cuts and equate the national debt to the worst thing since ethnic cleansing but bat a blind eye towards military spending.
Dems will fight tooth and nail to prevent the cuts of public programs ultimately biting the bullet and giving in to spending cuts because of the immense political capital that's going to be spent on gun control, taxes, and immigration.
Supreme court will strike down Prop 8, instantly obliterating anti same sex marriage legislation in conservative states.
More ominous talk about tensions reaching a breaking point and a war starting but nothing actually happening because no one is bold or stupid enough to start anything.
I realize my predictions are awfully US centric.
Time to help our Israeli brothers with their pest problem.
Seriously? Monkey shit for that?
Hugo Chavez will die
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