I'd like to engage in a little thought exercise today. Call it a refresher on Probability and Statistics. You see, my thesis is that at least one and perhaps several members of WSO got engaged last night, and I'd like to find out if I'm right. So let's start with the facts:
- WSO has 60,000+ members
- 90%+ of that membership are males aged 18-30
- The overwhelming majority of WSO members either work or aspire to work in a field where prestige and social stability are highly sought after, almost to the exclusion of everything else
Now let's look at some assumptions:
- The vast majority of members come from a background of at least some privilege so they're environmentally predisposed to the reckless optimism required to float a marriage proposal
- Bankers are linear thinkers and abhor creativity and originality, hence a proposal on Valentine's Day
- Proposing on Valentine's Day is also a form of risk management, as the intended fiancée is theoretically less likely to decline on the most romantic day of the year
- I'm assuming at least a plurality of WSO members came from stable, two-parent households and therefore only understand the odds against a successful marriage intellectually and not experientially
- At least half of WSO members secretly realize the woman they're dating is too good for them and want to lock her down before she figures it out
Again, those are assumptions but I doubt they're far off the mark.
So, when you combine the facts that 90%+ of WSO members are in the "marriage window" age-wise (and that percentage equals over 50,000 members of a community obsessed with prestige and stability) with the assumptions that at least half of them are dating up and still believe in the viability of marriage despite all rational evidence to the contrary - and then you throw in Valentine's Day - I'm postulating that it's a statistical impossibility that at least one of you didn't pop the question last night.
So, am I right? I'm just looking for one of you to come clean. I promise you immunity from scorn on this thread, I just want to know that my math is correct. If you got engaged last night or know of another WSO member who did, let's hear about it. And if you think I'm way off base, feel free to let me know that too.
edmundo, i'm about to propose. i've got the rings sized and ordered. seriously. talk me off this ledge.
Wait!!!! Are you sure you're not forgetting something?
Hint: PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP! PRENUP!
Bitch, you wasn't with me shootin' in the gym.
not even close here, ditto on the "prenup"!
walk me through this prenup thing. i think all will benefit from this.
Dude, interesting timing of this post. I had a strange dream last night where I married a woman a liked personally but had no sexual attraction to. We had the wedding annulled after 1 week. That, that was basically the dream, although it, it umm was much more impactful than what I just wrote.
Fuck no.
I think a thread on a Pre-Nup would be a one of the great threads on WSO. If anyone is knowledgable/has experience in the area please write a detailed post.
I guarrantee it will be one of the most searched threads. Personally, I'm trying to talk two fraternity brothers into the pre-nup thing but they are so caught up in the whole process that their logical male brains seem to be turned-off.
This thread sort of discusses it:
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sell-your-options-dearly-marriage
This thread sort of discusses it:
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sell-your-options-dearly-marriage[/…]
So like when you say fraternity brothers, are they recent graduates or still in college? Because a prenup only protects what you went into the marriage with and even that does not seem to hold much weight any more these days. In other words, if your brothers go get married today and start making the mucho bucks tomorrow, sorry, there is no protection. The 300 bucks they go in with will be covered, the built up 5 million won't be. And beyond the prenup, she'll want the kids to have two nannies, enough tuition money for the most expensive schools, vacation allowance, and of course, hopping on Delta and going to Disney won't be enough, it will have to be private plane jaunts to St. Barts. Hopefully, she does not demand the high-end sports car, because you know its her next BF that will be driving it.
Quite frankly, I do not understand why guys rush into marriage nowadays, especially when those same guys are cheating within 12-18 months. I think there is unfortunately, incredible truth in what someone said above, "At least half of WSO members secretly realize the woman they're dating is too good for them and want to lock her down before she figures it out." Some awkward geek who could not pull women in college or high school is now making lots of money and attracting women, so before he wakes up, he locks it in. I understand the position. I've had dreams where I find lots of money, then I wake up. Quite maddening.
I was watching a Bloomberg show over the weekend and this one was about Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, made his money when the sold Paypal, which he co-founded. In the show he talked about about some times you make the wrong decisions in life with business/personal and that was a veiled attack on his ex wife (divorced in 2010) who made the divorce contentious over money. That also segued into how happy he was now because he had met another women. And of course, she was a model (I'd rather call her aspiring) who was not pretty in my opinion, at all. They showed them together and he was sitting next to her, the geek next to the "incredible hottie" looking clumsy. It broke my heart because I had seen a headline a couple months ago that said he was getting divorced!! The show was produced just a few months before this second divorce. Very sad. Also depressing, the show talked about how they met in a club and she had never heard of him and did not believe him about his cars and rockets and paypal until her father Googled him to see if they were real. In other words, this was how he was picking up women, by bragging/showing off. Didn't he know that that strategy, besides loser-like, is also dangerous to his wealth? How much is he losing this time around for less than 12 months of marriage. He lives in CA. Sad.
Dont be such a negative nancy, ed. Marriage is one of the few institutions that holds society and families together. I dont know why you see the alternatives - bastard children whos parents arent willing to make a commitment to one another, and a further degradation of societal coherence and morals - so attractive.
I thought Ed was mega-happily-married this third time around, or something like that.
Anyways. Me? Marriage? Uhhh... no thanks. You see, I like kids. But I only like cute kids. And if my kids weren't cute, then I wouldn't be able to love them.
Yep, I'm honest that way.
Did you purposely try to sound like a pedophile?
First, I find nothing attractive about the notion of children - bastard or otherwise. The human population is already well above sustainable rates for global resources (most studies peg sustainability somewhere around 1.4 billion humans with no further population growth), so you'd be doing the entire planet a favor (and no one more so than yourself) by not having any children. Mine are adopted (bastards, just like me), so it's a wash.
Social cohesion and puritanical morality place roughly on my list of concerns between whether I'll pick up jock itch at the gym this week (not likely, since I don't go the gym) and whether it'll rain in Christchurch, New Zealand next Tuesday.
I hope you don't mind me making that last part my signature.
Ed: K, that clears up a lot of questions re: where you stand on things.
I did one better, I got in an argument with the lady friend at a very nice restaurant and sent her home in a cab. Booyah!
So that's a no?
@Angus Yes, I am happily married this third time around.
I really think WSO guys should marry earlier in their lives or consider it as a serious option... the girls would have had less time to whore around/become jaded and it would probably give these guys a better perspective of what they want out of life i.e. they'll grow up and make their own goals instead of those assigned to them... its also early enough to give you both options without being bitter if things don't work out.
Agreed. Stability, moral behaviors and responsibility are good things - I frankly find it surprising and disturbing that so many people in finance, and in our society in general seem to abhor them, and that it is so unpopular and even that there is outright hostility by people to people who are "moral puritans."
@Seabird Have you seen Chuck Murray's new book?
Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010
He's the author of The Bell Curve (which kicked up a bunch of controversy because it broke IQ down along racial lines).
I've been meaning to do a whole post about this, because Murray thinks (as I surmise that you do) that America is destined to fail because of loosening morals, casual bastardy, etc... and he presents a compelling case. His prescription, however, is completely daft. He thinks in order to save the country, the rich (who live by the moral code most to his particular liking) need to come out from behind the walls of their gated communities and live amongst the poor again, so as to teach the poor how to "act right" by example.
I think it's hogwash, as I do most moralizing, but it's interesting nonetheless.
She said she appreciated my email and would think about it.
Eddie - I think you're going to be wrong on this one. I like your stat breakdown but Americans are getting married later & later in life so I think your inclusion of 18-25 year old kids is very optimistic. And I'm also guessing that WSO is even moreso in that range. So I think that your estimate of 50,000 potential proposers is probably half that, maybe even as low as 10,000-ish??? Given that, I think it's likely that there were NO proposals.
In conclusion (I'm giving a very generous 30-cent line):
PROPOSAL ON VALENTINES BY WSO MEMBER YES +130 NO -160
Problem here is member v. member who posts. Sure, there are 60k registered users but a great majority of posts come from the same ~300 people. There is very little chance that someone with an account who rarely posts will make one of those few posts something that is guaranteed to generate a shit storm and pretty easily out him if other people at his firm/school/daycare are also WSO users.
Hahahaha EB you crack me up
I'm curious as to how many people are active users. Active in this case - let's say 3 posts a week.
I'm sure Patrick knows pretty well how active everyone is. I'm on the site a good bit but I don't always post. I'm sure there are tons of users who read religiously but have never posted anything.
I did not propose. I sent a sexy message to my lover (F) about missing each other
It was lovely.
My theory is that Eddie asked his previous 6 wives to have a devil's threesome (as a favor for his business contacts) and was shut down. Disgruntled, he divorced all of them.
Getting a supportive message from the lover friend was even more lovely.
That Eddie guy must be a bad ass macho gangster LOL
When WSO files for its IPO we will get a solid view on the number of "daily users".
Well Eddie, I'm sorry you haven't gotten any confirmation on your estimates yet. I can't really be of any help; I got married a few years ago.
If it's any consolation I did just decided to buy a house (technically our offer just got accepted), and I'm sure I'm far too young to hit your age requirements for getting that serious in a relationship.
That's the best I can do.
60k users? Eddie, don't sell WSO short. :-) We JUST passed 80,000 registered members....closing in on 100,000 - think we'll hit it in November....hopefully sooner. If you take how many unique visitors we have per MONTH, that is now close to 600,000...then it is impossible not to be true.
how many of those are active posters? MUCH MUCH less...so you are probably correct with your statistics, but you likely won't hear about it in this thread.
Next year I may be engaged WITHOUT a prenup. Eddie, did you get a prenup with your current wife?
No, but I figure it's only money. I know that sounds pretty cavalier, but I've been rich and I've been poor and whenever I've lost my fortune (such as it was), I always made it back in a couple years. Once you know how to make money, losing it is less important than the principle that some bitch robbed you.
I realize not everyone feels this way, and I'd never recommend anyone else getting married bareback (without a pre-nup) if you have something to protect. I just happen to trust my wife, and if I'm a fool for it I only have myself to blame.
Ed: I agree that its a hogwash solution, because from what you say, there isnt any real impetus for the rich to do so. Ultimately I do think that the important thing is to change habits of people, though I think that a lot of problems could be dealt with by eliminating welfare, social security and all other government subsidies. Eliminating those would force the worst of the poor in todays ghettoes and backwaters to teach themselves to survive. Of course, that isn't a realistic solution either - its not politically possible.
Ultimately I do not think that the country can survive in the long term on its current course, and I dont think that the important things that the founders held to be self evident, which I can see as the basis for all the rights that make the US so great and our lives as good as they are, as being held as important.
Le Capitalist - I 100% agree that is sad. Which is what really makes things difficult for a guy like him with such incredible success financially.
For other people (like myself), it has nothing to do with feeling "she is too good for me", etc...it's more about having a family and wanting the kids to grow up in a relatively stable environment.
I'd be interested to see divorce rates for people over 30 that have college degrees and advanced degrees. I'd bet that they are significantly lower than the 50% stat that gets thrown around so much. (which i agree, is scary)
Also keep in mind that 50% stat includes people who remarried and divorced. Once you've done it once, you're more likely to do it again which skews the numbers.
Are you over 35? Because I also don't understand, again, in this day and age, the young under 28 guy that's thinking, I really want to start having kids. Mother Nature programmed women for that and also gave them the power to convince men to go along. A very guy thinking I want kids I wonder. Its like the gay couple that want to adopt because they want to start a family.
Some young guys want to have kids before their late 30s or 40s because they want to enjoy their children while while they are in their prime "age". They don't want to be too old to play soccer with the kids when they turn 13.
That's at least what some guys told me.
I would be willing to take the under that 1 WSO member proposed last night.
some highlights from this article: http://www.drheller.com/divorcemyths.html
"for college educated women who marry after the age of 25 and have established an independent source of income, the divorce rate is only 20%"
maybe another reason I'm more positive on marriage, I'm from MA: "divorce rate in Massachusetts is the lowest in the country. We have the highest percentage of college graduates"
What part? I grew up about half hour south of Boston.
As for millionaires marrying models 20 years younger than them? Those guys are idiots. What did they think would happen?
IMO people dont really change drastically after 18 yrs of age
So you are going to stay In MA when you get married and you will have a phobia for travelling because you will be scared that moving to another state will break your marriage. LMAO
good deductive reasoning skills....maybe you should go take the LSAT or join the monkeys over on jdoasis.com?
Did anyone gets proposed last night?
this topic is boring and completely played out on here
I never have understood why Americans as a whole are so eager to get married... only to end up divorced over the most trivial and trite things.
Ever wonder why divorce rates were so much lower in the '50s? Have you noticed that the rate has been creeping upwards ever since? Back then, if there was a problem with the marriage, the couple would work through the pain and come to an understanding. Nowadays, as soon as they hit a bump, they decide that they're not the "one" or whatever other bullshit they say to pass off responsibility to anyone but themselves. Back then, divorce (and by extension infidelity) was simply not an option. These days, a woman with morals i.e. one who would never cheat under any circumstances, is an anomaly.
I don't know about you guys, but when I get married, it'll be in my late 30s/ early 40s. And to make sure that the chances of divorce is zero (provided I hold up my end of the bargain, and remain faithful), when I'm ready to settle down, I'll take a sabbatical for a couple years, take a trip to my country of origin (an obscure Asian country), date women at least 20 years younger than me, marry the one that I get along with the most, get back home (the US), and live happily ever after. Why? Because they don't think (and act on) shit like "what if I meet someone at work/ the mall" or "I wonder if I could be happier with someone else". They think long and hard on a decision, but if they choose you, they will be with you for the long haul.
Don Draper.
Infidelity rates have remained relatively stable... for men. For women, I would argue that they are much more likely to cheat, since such instances are often promptly followed by "you go girl!" by their friends. The point I am making is that back in the '50s, such behavior would have resulted in the adulterer being shunned from society, thus providing a disincentive to commit adultery. Due to misguided divorce laws in this country, if men cheat, they lose everything. If women cheat, they gain half of their husband's assets.
Did anyone else catch this and find the second part incredibly stupid/unrealistic/impractical/immature? I'm not the smartest guy in the room but...
Mind elaborating a bit?
That is the most depressing, lifeless thing I've read around here in a while. What if in the next couple of years you meet someone that is amazing and can make your life 100 times better than it is now? Would you give up the opportunity to find out (with the associated risk of one day getting divorced) in order to stick with The Plan? A thoroughly boring plan where you go to find someone that probably won't have much in common with you, being 20 years your junior and used to an obscure Asian country and who's main quality is that they won't cheat on you because of social/cultural norms?
Fuck that, it's only money. If your fear of losing it prevents you from living a full life, you probably aren't cut out for being rich.
I spent my Valentines day alone and in the library
feelsgoodman
Very nice way to celebrate Venereal Disease Day.
At least nine police cars responded Tuesday to reports of a woman bound in duct tape and naked in a man's car, but the incident turned out to be a Valentine's role-play.
Shortly after noon, police converged on the New Seasons Market on North Interstate Avenue after receiving a report of a vehicle seen leaving the parking lot with a naked female tied up in the back with duct tape over her mouth.
retrieved from: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46400686#.TzWGjE4gfT8
[quote=FlakieBear]Very nice way to celebrate Venereal Disease Day.
At least nine police cars responded Tuesday to reports of a woman bound in duct tape and naked in a man's car, but the incident turned out to be a Valentine's role-play.
Shortly after noon, police converged on the New Seasons Market on North Interstate Avenue after receiving a report of a vehicle seen leaving the parking lot with a naked female tied up in the back with duct tape over her mouth.
retrieved from: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46400686#.TzWGjE4gfT8[/quote]
Now that's taking shit to the next level. I wonder if the wife would be down for that...
There are TONS of women that are into that. When I write my memoirs I'm going to have a whole chapter dedicated to women I've met with rape/abduction fantasies.
1) I agree about the first part. I'm glad that men are being held accountable these days. What I'm complaining about is the fact that women seem to have regressed to something that resembles a dollar-whore.
2) I know about divorce from personal experience. My uncle recently got divorced. He is literally the nicest guy I know. Home every day by 6, spends a lot of time with his 2 year old son, takes his wife out to dinner a few times a month, gives 20% of his yearly income to charity etc. His wife of 5 years was cheating on him. He was devastated when he found out, but the gold-digger (GD) convinced him that they should try to work it out. So you can imagine his surprise when two weeks later, he was handed divorce papers to sign. Turns out that the GD secretly met with a divorce lawyer during that time.
I don't fully understand the intricacies of the laws, but it turned out that since they slept together after the GD was found out, it meant that my uncle had somehow condoned the cheating. Additionally, since most states are "no-fault" (it means that the woman gets half his stuff even if she's the one who cheated), he lost half his possessions. But the worst part is that, since the bitch concocted some BS story that my uncle was a wife-beater, she has full custody of his son. I'm pretty sure the only reason that heartless bitch did that was to collect the alimony checks for the next 16 years.
Also, I'd appreciate it if you didn't misquote me, LOL.
HEY COOL NOW WE HAVE A LONG ASS BORING DISCUSSION ON ETHICS AGAIN.
blahblahblahblahblah
so back to the topic at hand: who got hitched yesterday? ANYONE?
about to turn 32.
@flakiebear, i know, just messing w you and giving a shout out to JDO
If your frat bros want to commit to one another without a prenup, so be it... you've given your advice... you can't force people to hedge their bets... let yourself off the hook.
Eddie:
Again you've made clear your (probably accurate) views on marriage. I like to break things down into very simple concepts, and one thought I've had amidst all this debate here on WSO, is how much of the difficulty associated with marriage is just due to living with someone else 24/7? Yes, we all know women are crazy, but think about if you had to live with a good buddy for 1, 2, 10 years? Chances are you both might have some "differences" by the end of that run. I lived with 4 other good buddies for 2 years, and while at the beginning we were having an awesome time, by the end we were at each others throats.
I've actually thought a lot about this and one of my early theories was that there is a finite number of hours you can spend with a woman before she drives you up the fucking wall. In a hot relationship you want to be together 24/7 at first, so you burn all those hours up quickly and she gets on your nerves after a couple years. I suppose the same could be said of your bros, but I've never lived with a guy or guys for more than 3 or 4 months at a stretch (unless you count a Marine barracks).
I proposed Valentine's Day two years ago...cheesy as hell but it shocked her because she thought i would never propose on such a cliche
I know one guy who got married yesterday, he already has arguments.
Not that it will likely be included in your "study" but I had a friend propose last night. Is a software engineer who doesn't fit your study group but still thought it was laughable.
Pours one out for the homies
Guilty.
Haha Someone finally had the gut to admit it.
Are you going to get a prenuptial agreement?
Yes, but it wasn't suggested by me....
Whoop...there it is!
Congrats and good luck, bro.
Thanks. I thought I was going to get mixed reactions from my friends (similar to views on this site) and was very surprised by how many asked for me for details. I am the first in my group of friends to get it done though.
Also, just read through your original post and your assumptions are pretty dead on...
Eddie, you never fail to deliver.
Congratulations!
Congrats!
This is all you need to see about marriage....
Brilliant analysis Eddie. Very 80/20. You should work at McKinsey.
With all respect to Eddie, I think he got lucky on this one. I still contend that the numbers in his analysis were way off, much too high. Besides, the odds that the one person would also be an ACTIVE member of the forum AND reveal themselves in this thread are exceedingly low.
Jack,
My numbers were actually too conservative, as Patrick pointed out. I'll agree that having one of the probably less than 500 "active" members cop to the deed was a longshot, but I've got a lot of faith in the integrity of WSO members, and I know my people.
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