ZIM Shipping Thesis Ideas - Looking for advice on understand global freight industry

Hi all, looking for some advice on forecasting ZIM's TEU price by trade region (Pacific, cross suez, Atlantic, etc.), I am outside my elemement, and if anyone has any expertise in the area, on how TEU capacity and prices are actually calculated plz share. Also, I realize this is dark and likely doesn't belong on this thread

Comments (12)

jkbpop357, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Bump - have been following this one as well

  • 1
togglef2esc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

As an update- I have looked at varying capacity by country, segmented by trade region, looked at vessels overdue to be retired.

Overall, it's ATL of scrapping of ships as such the capacity relative to demand will take a hit. Was modeling in zims leasing for 1+ yr term as the misconception of onshoring (unfeasible to scale in my eyes) it shows that zim has advantage on cost basis (their ships are more fuel efficient then global feet) etc etc.

Still struggling with digesting chartering and how it works with LNG and the shift to moving more agriculture as farming system in North America is in shambles.

Idk. Maybe not the best approach but either way hope we can get some good ideas flowing for those who are interested or want to partake.

  • 1
  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Comm

believe they have a decent amount of cash 

  • Intern in AM - Equities


Most Helpful
togglef2esc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

as an update, very very complex model rn. Seems street is effectively placing a 40% ish hit to TEU prices at these levels. 

I do not really understand why the extreme bearish nature. 

Lookig at the economics, PCE rates still strong with fairly resilient labour market. As well, throughput seems to me to stay strong especially globally given increases in Ecom activity and increased retail space vacancy in North America driving and speaking to the shift to online. However given the soaring prices of industrial RE in NA alone, Companies have limited space say in appeal for example. As well, look at the extremely deteriorating agricultural industry in NA currently pent up through global trade. 

WIll share further break thoughts just dropping some thoughts. THis is by far the most complex situation given mixed media reporting on the recession which is not like previous as well as different circumstances in globalization and still trickling growth post pandemic along side the now destroyed energy industry in Europe. As the user above pointed out, ZIM is trading almost below liquidation or below depending on various facorts. as such, this is looking like a promising 2023 aside but one with seemingly strong risk reward base. 

Would appreciate any great well thought out robutles - or questions on this- not that I could answer the questions but it may make me or another user think of something else. 

jkbpop357, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Thanks for the post - I'm actively tracking this name as you called out. Do you want to DM me so we can easily share thoughts?

togglef2esc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Plz do I don't know how to do so

freightfather, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Pariatur in est omnis. Fuga exercitationem rerum veritatis fugit. Porro facilis eum aut ad magnam dolores doloribus.

Temporibus dolorem ipsam nam ad natus repudiandae. Et magni corrupti commodi impedit ut necessitatibus.

Rem ea repellat quaerat. Quia ut occaecati ut temporibus sed aspernatur explicabo. Voluptate error repellendus maiores beatae vitae quibusdam.

Rerum eius veritatis doloribus exercitationem velit ut. Nisi voluptas at incidunt rem unde quo rerum. Veritatis aut tempore eveniet saepe. Nobis ea laudantium ut amet.

Start Discussion

Popular Content See all

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2023 Hedge Fund

  • Point72 98.9%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.9%
  • AQR Capital Management 96.8%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.8%
  • Two Sigma Investments 94.7%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2023 Hedge Fund

  • Magnetar Capital 98.9%
  • D.E. Shaw 97.8%
  • Blackstone Group 96.8%
  • Millennium Partners 95.7%
  • Citadel Investment Group 94.6%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2023 Hedge Fund

  • D.E. Shaw 99.0%
  • Point72 97.9%
  • AQR Capital Management 96.9%
  • Magnetar Capital 95.8%
  • Citadel Investment Group 94.8%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2023 Hedge Fund

  • Portfolio Manager (9) $1,648
  • Vice President (22) $464
  • Director/MD (11) $434
  • NA (5) $306
  • Manager (4) $282
  • 3rd+ Year Associate (23) $275
  • Engineer/Quant (66) $274
  • 2nd Year Associate (29) $251
  • 1st Year Associate (72) $191
  • Analysts (218) $177
  • Intern/Summer Associate (20) $130
  • Junior Trader (5) $102
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (241) $85