ZIM Shipping Thesis Ideas - Looking for advice on understand global freight industry
Hi all, looking for some advice on forecasting ZIM's TEU price by trade region (Pacific, cross suez, Atlantic, etc.), I am outside my elemement, and if anyone has any expertise in the area, on how TEU capacity and prices are actually calculated plz share. Also, I realize this is dark and likely doesn't belong on this thread
Comments (12)
go through @mintzmyer tweets
Bump - have been following this one as well
As an update- I have looked at varying capacity by country, segmented by trade region, looked at vessels overdue to be retired.
Overall, it's ATL of scrapping of ships as such the capacity relative to demand will take a hit. Was modeling in zims leasing for 1+ yr term as the misconception of onshoring (unfeasible to scale in my eyes) it shows that zim has advantage on cost basis (their ships are more fuel efficient then global feet) etc etc.
Still struggling with digesting chartering and how it works with LNG and the shift to moving more agriculture as farming system in North America is in shambles.
Idk. Maybe not the best approach but either way hope we can get some good ideas flowing for those who are interested or want to partake.
believe they have a decent amount of cash
They do have a lot of cash and assets; there could be a case that they are trading below liquidation value.
A lot. Thesis revolves around repurchase of fleet. /part of
Bump
as an update, very very complex model rn. Seems street is effectively placing a 40% ish hit to TEU prices at these levels.
I do not really understand why the extreme bearish nature.
Lookig at the economics, PCE rates still strong with fairly resilient labour market. As well, throughput seems to me to stay strong especially globally given increases in Ecom activity and increased retail space vacancy in North America driving and speaking to the shift to online. However given the soaring prices of industrial RE in NA alone, Companies have limited space say in appeal for example. As well, look at the extremely deteriorating agricultural industry in NA currently pent up through global trade.
WIll share further break thoughts just dropping some thoughts. THis is by far the most complex situation given mixed media reporting on the recession which is not like previous as well as different circumstances in globalization and still trickling growth post pandemic along side the now destroyed energy industry in Europe. As the user above pointed out, ZIM is trading almost below liquidation or below depending on various facorts. as such, this is looking like a promising 2023 aside but one with seemingly strong risk reward base.
Would appreciate any great well thought out robutles - or questions on this- not that I could answer the questions but it may make me or another user think of something else.
Thanks for the post - I'm actively tracking this name as you called out. Do you want to DM me so we can easily share thoughts?
Plz do I don't know how to do so
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