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soooo.... totally get what you mean on this.... so I just have some random thoughts, to be clear... don't know enough to suggest any course of action...

- Deals falling apart and people leaving are not all that unusual in big or small firms. Did they leave for better jobs? Worse jobs? or NO jobs? Clearly if it's as bad as rats leaving a sinking ship you need to be aggressive on a job hunt. BUT... nothing you have said makes me think that is true (I mean it could be, but if you can figure out the context on why those people left, would help). 

- Figure out if the firm is financially solvent and well positioned/able to do deals. Right now the markets are kinda in a "fucked" state, but that is true for many many firms. Sellers aren't exactly cutting deals or offering discounts so a lot thumb twiddling going on. If this is just "market" action (again, this is more true for some in some asset classes/markets than it is for others), then I'd just stick it out and learn what it is like when stuff is not easy (real world!). IF they are losing investors and couldn't close a good deal if they landed one.... plan for the exit! You should be able to figure out from talking to people in the firm (and maybe some connections outside) if they can or cannot execute on a deal (note, not the same as being able to find one....). If the answer is YES, then probably stick it out, if NO, then jump sooner than later, but you can be strategic IF... they have the cash/staying power to pay your salary. TBH, really no way to judge this unless you see the private statements of the owners/backers and of the firm. Some small places have DEEP staying power, some have near zero, and sadly no way to really know (and yes, managers/owners/founders can/will lie about this).

- So, if you firm passes the can operate and can pay you tests.... then is there a reason you want to bail? Like if the job is okay otherwise, then I guess no need to worry. OR does it otherwise suck in some profound way? Sure staying for 2 yrs is good resume mngt, but at the same time, if a better job comes along, not really a big harm in taking it. This becomes an issue if you do this back to back to back, then can kill mobility, but really once or twice isn't game changing (not a positive to be sure, but not a negative either). 

- IF your firm is about to crash and/or cannot execute deals.... then disregard any of the "resume management" stuff!!! You need to look aggressively and don't waste time. In interviews, it IS okay to explain you have concerns about the funding/ongoing status of your current firm. Employment interviews are always considered "confidential, off-the-record" but still be careful about saying anything not publicly knowable or disparaging... BUT saying things like "we haven't closed a deal since 2021 and I don't think we will for the foreseeable future" is perfectly fine IF true. I'd avoid speculation on solvency/ability to make payroll unless everyone is talking about it so openly all know. Most HR and hiring managers will see this move as a "mulligan" and it won't matter if there two years, two months, or two days. If the building is legit on fire.... get out.

- Final point... there is the "half" situation... hard to operate, financially tenuous, but likely just going to weather the storm (keep paying, but do fewer deals). I'd say it's still fine/normal to break the "two year rule" as a "mulligan", but will be harder to sell and if you have to do again, may be tougher. Still, if the gig you have is not the gig you signed up for or were sold in recruiting... then yeah, I'd probably move sooner than later. Still, if they are paying your salary, take the luxury of moving on your time and strategically, i.e. don't put yourself up for a fire sale if they aren't! 

 

Wow, thank you for the in depth response - lots of great points here. I think the situation resembles your last point the most.

I am still getting my base pay but I doubt I end up getting anywhere near my full bonus (50%) - the high bonus was why I originally accepted the lower base salary so that’s a bummer since it was out of my control.

I truly am getting great experience here though in my opinion- Multiple asset types, learning Argus, all types of modeling, deal structuring, interacting w/ 3rd parties etc., so I really think I’d make a strong case for a new role when looking as I feel like the experience is applicable anywhere.

I think I may start exploring at the 1 year mark? I feel as though that may not leave as big of a stain on the resume as it would if I were to start shopping jobs now.

From what I can tell, we seem to be good on equity right now, but who knows what will happen in the future (I.e. next year), so that might be the best option. Please let me know your thoughts. Thank you again.

 

so, I think a lot of people at a lot of firms are facing not getting full bonuses (and maybe some getting near zero) this year. This is part of the risk trade off of such jobs, some days we win, sometimes lose. So, that in and of itself is not reason to leave, unless you think there is no hope of future recovery (which is not what you are saying). 

Could you go to the market at year 1? Sure, I mean at least starting the networking and looking process. Still...... this should be a strategic move, and frankly, its often better to wait for one that comes with a real promotion, big bump in pay, and upgrade in firm (ideally at least two of those if not all). Doing a "lateral" can be of mixed value (in fairness, if at a 15 person shop with slowing ability to execute, it may be very worthwhile in that exact situation), but the chance of "reset" to career clock (esp. if you go at end of year 1) is pretty high. Probably little/nothing to worry about long-term firm, but is a consideration nonetheless.

 

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