Let's start a prediction thread for the midterms.
House: Democrats +17 (Republicans retain control)
Senate: Republicans +4 (Manchin switches parties for 55 seats for GOP)
Democratic Party completely unravels and Trump has a 1972 (Nixon over McGovern type win).
| +95 | Are you “less ambitious” for having long term goals outside of NYC | 24 | 4h | |
| +37 | Interviews Are So Fake | 24 | 4h | |
| +33 | 2024 UK Election - Tories finished? | 20 | 15h | |
| +29 | Being Christian in investment banking | 14 | 10h | |
| +26 | Is my boss gaslighting me? | 3 | 6d | |
| +24 | Non-Competes Banned | 16 | 1h | |
| +22 | Ideas for things to do with a free semester before starting ft? | 9 | 1d | |
| +20 | Sabotaging Peers to Get Ahead? | 34 | 3d | |
| +18 | Best NYC neighborhood for single 30M | 12 | 1d | |
| +17 | Moelis has the cutest Analysts? | 4 | 6h |
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Trump has a stroke and America becomes great again.
It would be nice for Trump not to be the headline in every news article, from sports to auto racing. So yeah, a quiet President Pence would be acceptable.
I am not what I'd call a Trump supporter (I wish well upon him and hope he does well since that means the country does well, think he has some good and some bad policies, but don't really like him as a person), but if you think that Pence would be quiet and placating, I don't think that you know him very well. He is, by leaps and bounds, much more right-leaning than Trump, especially with respect to social issues like gay marriage, abortion, etc.... Make of that what you will, but I don't think you'd exactly have the media providing a whole lot less attention to him than Trump. He probably wouldn't tweet as much, but that's about it.
That's why I think all of the impeachment talk is somewhat humorous - the Democrats wouldn't be doing themselves any favors with respect to who they'd place into the WH.
Typical liberal response. Shame on you.
Imagine the bleats of racism is a statement like this was uttered about Obama.
Pretty cerebral comment there bud..
Think for yourself and see what is driving Trump to victory.. Look how the world order is being restructured.. We went from "China will rule the world" to 4.5% US growth.
You and people that don't think very deeply about this, who blindly and openly spit on the President, have no business managing money as far as I am concerned.
btw Republicans are on the verge of one of the most impressive political wins in the history of the country.
And then we get President Pence? No fucking way. I want good ol Donald to stay healthy and tweeting the next two years. I want him to tweet as much as his healthy heart desires and then some right through election night 2020. I'm 100% serious. Absolutely nobody left of center should be wishing for Pence to be President.
Trump cancels further elections.
The common wisdom says R + 2-3 in the Senate (Rs keep Senate), Dems + 30-40 in the House (Dems take House). My prediction is that the common wisdom will be materially wrong in one direction or the other. Not sure if it's because of the nature of polling in a cell phone era, but the common wisdom continues to be wrong in election cycle after election cycle.
The polls were within the margin of error a vast majority of the time the past two years.
No, they were completely wrong in the 2016 election.
A "margin of error" is the difference in +-30 seats when talking about 435 House seats--just a slight variation in turnout could completely throw off the model and leave the GOP in control of the House or out 60 seats. It's not immaterial when looking at the sum total of national races.
In 2014 I was certain the Republicans were going to barely take the Senate, if at all, based on the common wisdom. They ended up routing the Dems and picking up 9 seats, and I lost a pretty sizeable bet with my new boss.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2014
1
Beto is not winning Texas. Braun also has a ton of momentum in Indiana right now. The senate/house battlegrounds are vastly different. Yes there is likely to be a big swing in the house, but I'd put my money on 53 - 47 GOP Senate
GOP retains house and senate. The current democratic party and its platform are in tatters with no clear vision, direction, or leadership. Republicans are finding ways to very slowly expand their base while, increasingly, democrats are becoming a party of indoctrinated zealots who are alienating more moderate, reasonable party members.
Except that college educated people (and ESPECIALLY college educated women) are abandoning the GOP in droves. The GOP is not diversifying, they're tripling down on white men.
Older white men
Such a bullshit statement. A large base of college graduates vote Republican. This percentage shrunk because Trump picked up blue collar union workers that formerly voted for Democrats.
And political attitudes shift. I’ll happily take a blue collar high school grad of the inundation of liberal art 22 year old trigger clowns voting for socialists.
A college degree doesn’t indicate intelligence no matter how much the left tries to push it.
Two scoops, two terms
.
Republican landslide. The current hysteria is due to the left/swamp/ds knowing it's over. Their only hope to save their skin is to impeach Trump but that will not happen. There are many reasons the left will lose but I'll give a few.
The polls are historically inaccurate and biased. The samples they use to take the polls are nowhere near accurate. 2016 "Trump has a 3% chance of winning". 2018 "Dems have an 86% of winning".
What currently matters are early voting results. Repubs are showing up in greater numbers which almost never happens https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-de…
The current political climate is giving people insight into the way the left works. Saul Alinsky tactics that are consistently backfiring (the general public has the playbook and understands how comical it has become).
If Trump really needed to assure a midterm win he would just release the Carter Page FISA warrant/texts. That warrant will be a headliner for the greatest political scandal/treasonous act in modern US history (barring the Kennedy Assassination). That said, he either releases it right before the midterm or he's holding it as leverage to pull more strings.
A slow awakening via popular culture. Kanye is actually a key player in waking people up to the realities of the plantation. Via education, pop culture, and general rhetoric, people become indoctrinated to certain lines of thinking. Similar to Kanye, they are chastised and attacked if they stray from the hivemind. By major influencers such as Kanye coming out and telling everyone that "it's okay to think for yourself" - people are starting to break away from the mental prison they were once trapped in.
Enforcement of voter fraud is going to be a major focal point in this election. Historically the left needs illegals and dead people to vote in order to gain an advantage. With ICE and law enforcement on hand, there will be very little the DS can do to rig these elections (ex: bussing masses of illegals from state to state).
The Dems aren't going to be a party for much longer (in my opinion). They have devolved into socialist policies, race baiting, identity politics, radical feminism, censorship, ANTIFA (jackboots), abolishing ICE, open border, illegals first mentality and none of it is sustainable. People generally do not like chaos and that is exactly what they are getting from the left and the RINOs.
Beyond that, they have no discernible leadership. They're desperately searching for a new golden calf but their entire bench if full of hateable personalities, communists, and chock-full of scandal. None of them will have a chance against Trump in 2020. Also, once the major players are locked up in GITMO - the veil will be lifted and the country will be able to unite once again.
tldr: Trump will go down as the greatest president since Lincoln.
This post, and this entire thread frankly, is the ultimate height of the alternate reality Trump fans and the hard-core right have created for themselves. Seriously, I want to print out this wrongness and hang it on my office wall. What in the hell caused this massive brain drain on the Right, and how did WSO become indistinguishable from a Breitbart comments section? A bunch of children who haven't yet earned a penny in the real world but went to one College Republicans meetup and think they have the world figured out.
Dems take House, GOP holds Senate. This isn't hard.
I can’t wait until you look like the biggest assclown on WSO on November 7th.
Please do. We can reconvene once the contents of the FBI texts and FISA warrant are released. You can then attempt to explain it away and I’ll hang those comments in my cube.
Do you think so? You really think this is the top? I've heard that a whole lot, but like the last bull market, it just seems to keep going. People are saying the recent mail bombs are a Left-wing false flag. I personally think there's absolutely no end to the lunacy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-el…
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-fore…
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1322J1
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market…
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94/amp
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/student-forecasters-predict-a-clin…
All of these are within 3 days of the election date.
In the time since Trump was elected, he has followed through on nearly every one of his promises. He managed to cut taxes, deregulate, manage a booming economy/market, renegotiate our largest trade agreements, stabilize Korea, and has energized a base of voters that have been looking for a true leader for decades.
You will eventually find out that there was a group of political leaders/intel agencies/“elites” (assisted by the media) in our country that tried to sell America to the highest bidder. They illegally influenced elections, used the federal gov to target political opponents (ex: Obama’s IRS), spied on innocent American citizens, funded the most dangerous terrorist states (Iran), and tried to overthrow a duly elected president among many other things. The guilty parties will end up in GITMO if they’re lucky.
Trump will absolutely go down as a top 10 president. I am beyond pleased. Expections blown away.
In today’s WSJ, Germany admits it makes no sense to buy gas from Russia while sanctioning them. Loooking to do more business with the US.
Just like dear leader promised.
If the stock market loses 30% of its value from the start of his presidency to the end, would you say the same thing? My guess would be that during this POTUS's tenure, we will experience very bad economic and financial conditions. He is not exactly a economic/financial scholar and he surrounds himself with people who may not be capable of dealing with a severe financial crises. Prior to becoming POTUS, he has shown a willingness to take enormous levels of risk and sometimes these risks have not worked out. He has taken several business ventures into bankruptcy.
For the US, he has used fiscal policy very irresponsibly. When you cut taxes while the economy is performing well, you are asking for trouble in the form of higher inflation and higher interest rates. Tariffs could also lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates. For a period of almost 40 years, markets benefited from falling interest rates to the point where valuations become very high. Now, rates, as expected, based on government intervention, have started moving higher, which will likely lead to much lower valuations. How low? Who knows. I do not think your prediction will come true.
Good god dude what planet do you live on
Democrats will win, but not big enough. They'll take back the House but not the Senate. The next two years will be even more ridiculous leading up to the 2020 election, which should be the Democrats' to win, but they are legendary at shooting themselves in the foot. I could see them nominating some far left weirdo that no one will vote for, or nominating a more centrist candidate and then not turning out for he or she because they aren't far left. No one eats their own quite like Democrats.
The party that others have said are the party of Intergalactic Freak Shows
Nah - look at some pictures of an "Alt-Right" rally. Those people are far from normal.
The reality is, Democrats eat their own via purity tests while Republicans rally around their candidate. Trump will run in 2020 and Republicans will vote Trump whether they actually like him or not because they understand that winning is more important than agreeing with a candidate 100%. I know the plural of anecdote is not data, but I know far more Republicans who think Trump is a massive dumbass than I do a handful of MAGA hat wearers, but all of those Republicans will be voting against the Democrat, if nothing else.
Meanwhile, whomever the Democrats elect will either be far left, and thus not viable to the country as a whole (and not appealing whatsoever to someone like me who is fairly center of the road but you know...has a job and doesn't want the marginal tax rates to skyrocket), or he or she will be center-left but get drug further left during the primaries in order to appease the radicals, only to end up in this weird place where they're not liberal enough for the socialists, thus reducing turnout and enthusiasm, but too liberal for centrists.
I predict 50% or more of the country will be really upset
but then the sun will rise the next day, and I still won't give a fuck
Republican win. Lots of people are going to vote just to see the trigger clowns all over the place again. I was initially for Hillary, but then i never enjoyed myself as much as after the results started dawning on all the braindead zealots.
Your comment showcases the actual downfall of American civility. It depicts people's lives as nothing more than a part of the game and show that is called politics. When it actuality, those people are having their lives drastically altered and will for a long time to come. Of course they're going to be emotionally distraught and the inability to empathize is our greatest weakness right now.
This is a bit of a cop out answer but I see this being a land-slide one way or the other - a lot of pundits I've seen/read are predicting it to be pretty close, but I think that the polls will have been skewed one way or the other and not capture a lot of the momentum that's been taking place. I think that one of the bases will be significantly more energized than the other come election day. Not sure which one that is yet though. On election night 2016 I was switching back and forth between NBC/CNN/Fox, and had the AP results up on my laptop. If you were watching those different sources, you would have thought that you were watching 4 different elections occurring. I mean like as much as an hour delay and spinning things differently if a state went one way or another.
Republicans gain seats in House and Senate, and cement support for a 2020 re-election.
Good luck, Democrats. Reasonable people have sat on the sidelines, watching with shock and disappointment as the Liberal Left has overplayed their hand and descended into a pit of identity politics, race-baiting, Kavanaugh-type attacks, and even attempting to demonize "whiteness" (while the country is ~75% white).. They had a chance to present a reasonable alternative, something the country wants. These normal, decent people don't participate in polling, don't scream in the streets, and don't post on social media. They simply show up on election day. Trump (the buffoon that he is) is on the verge of one of the most impressive political wins in the history of the country.
+1 woke post.
I'm just going to leave this here: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/trump-blames-bomb-stuff-for-slowing-gop…
I'm just going to passive-aggressively leave this here as well.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/14/homepage2/james-hodgkinson-profile/index…
I’m waiting for the standard NPC response.
Does...not...compute
Love how the trump guy is called white when he is a fucking Native American. Maybe Warren can get him to take a DNA test.
That has nothing to do with the mid terms. The president of our nation just decryed "bomb stuff" for affecting the upcoming mid terms and you're talking about some random crazy person. Smh.
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