2020 Election, Why Joe?

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Given the record-breaking prosperity the US has experienced over the past couple of years, how could someone in banking or entering banking possibly support Joe Biden? Setting politics aside, I am genuinely perplexed as to what Joe Biden actually brings to the table, half of the time he doesn't seem to know where he is or what he's talking about. It's a very scary thought that someone who is obviously senile could be running the free world.

Not trying to get political here, I know many people disagree with Trump. As young bankers or young hopeful bankers, who would you rather have at the helm of overseeing possibly the largest economic recovery since the Great Depression? And why ?

Comments (97)

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 1:02pm

luga12:

Not trying to get political here,

SMH. The title here is "2020 Election, Why Joe"

Aside the bizarre nature of that statement, I take issue with the record breaking prosperity comments for a couple of reasons. While the economy has experienced some solid growth over the past couple of years, the gains are a continuation of what we saw during the previous administration. Has it been a little better, perhaps but that is not the point, which is there is really nothing special about the rate of growth we have experienced.

The unemployment rate went from about 10% under the previous POTUS to about 4.7% at the end of his term. The rate continued to fall until it reached a low point of 3.5% under the current POTUS. Of course, now that rate is rising substantially and the economy is very likely headed for a recession.

Biden would not have been my pick to represent the democratic party. It is what it is. Hopefully he will pick a VP that has some good ideas and one that can represent us well.

http://www.series65examtutor.com
 
  • Prospect in IB - Gen
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

Trump never even mentioned bleach though. I know I'm gonna get a lot of MS for defending Trump (and I don't even like the guy), but these manufactured Trump "scandals" are getting out of hand. Just take a listen to the clip again:

The "disinfectant" he's talking about is clearly UV light therapy. UV light is routinely used in a variety of industrial disinfection applications although medical application remains experimental. Aytu Bioscience has been developing an in vivo UV-A disinfectant treatment for a while now and have been positioning their product for therapeutic application in upper respiratory disinfection to combat COVID-19. You can read about this treatment in detail here: https://aytubio.com/healight/

Most likely Trump just heard about this treatment in a briefing and tried to bring it up at the presser, but was unable to discuss the therapy coherently. Before anyone mentions the fact that Trump said "Injection" as proof that he wasn't just talking about UV light, keep in mind that the treatment works in vivo through the "Intubation" of a UV probe into respiratory tract, My guess would be that he mixed up these two words.

Look, Trump's clearly not the smartest guy, but he didn't tell the american people to inject bleach. I know that this is a ridiculous response to a small snide comment, but I find the amount of disinformation from the media on subjects like this lately really disconcerting. Any journalist worth their salt could've/would've easily been able to come to this conclusion and yet almost every news outlet pushes this narrative that Trump effectively told the american people to drink bleach to cure COVID-19. A big part of the reason I begrudgingly continue to support Trump is that as much as I see him as a flawed candidate I also see him as one whose flaws continue to be exaggerated and, at times, even entirely confabulated (Russian Pee Tapes comes to mind). On the other side, Joe Biden is a career moderate (irrespective that moderate politics has changed considerably since the 70s) who seems to stand for nothing but the democratic party as an institution. Also, he is straight up demented (he has forgotten what state he was in on multiple occasions and there are so many videos of him appearing downright confused). It's a shame we don't have a good choice in 2020, but I believe that Biden may literally be the lowest quality mainstream political candidate we've had in decades - and that's saying something given 2016.

 
  • VP in S&T - FI
Apr 25, 2020 - 11:39pm

Regardless of your thoughts on tax policy from a big picture economic/social prospective the Trump tax cuts were absolutely awful for high W2 income earners in high tax states (the majority of people working in finance). Eliminating the state and local deduction and capping the mortgage interest deduction was not helpful to anyone working above the analyst level in finance (I think the breakeven income level for single non-homeowners in NY/CA/IL was around 250K). If Biden simply returns things to the way they were before the tax cuts most finance workers would have more money in their pockets.

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 7:18pm

But let's roll the dice on a clearly demented man, who can't remember what he's talking about as he reads off of the telepromter? Give me a break, several months ago Joe was ranting about how china isn't even competition to us and saying " China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man". And this is the man to lead the economic revovery??? looks like some of you have been watching a little too much Rachel Maddow

 
  • Associate 3 in RE - Other
Apr 25, 2020 - 1:35pm

How much do you think the corporate tax cuts passed in late 2017 impacted the stock market rise 2018-early 2020? To me it helped boost the stock market (38% or so top corp rate to 22% or so; that delta of 16% adds to the bottom line), but it comes at a cost to the government which has other obligations both short term and long term.

I also don’t buy the notion that Biden alone will be making economic decisions. He will have advisors, Congress, etc.

I think a healthy balance of left and right policies are healthy. I dislike the current POTUS due to his divisiveness and outward arrogance. We can do better.

Great quote from the Netflix documentary on the Vietnam War (Ken Burns):

“It is very, very difficult to dispel ignorance if you retain arrogance.” In response to how the US fought previous wars and won and could not adjust to asymmetric warfare like in Vietnam.

Have compassion as well as ambition and you’ll go far in life
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 1:44pm

Associate 3 in RE - Other:

I think a healthy balance of left and right policies are healthy. I dislike the current POTUS due to his divisiveness and outward arrogance. We can do better.


I agree. It is very difficult for me not to factor in the arrogance of the current POTUS and how disrespectful he is of other people.

http://www.series65examtutor.com
 
  • Associate 3 in RE - Other
Apr 25, 2020 - 9:46pm

luga12:

what about the arrogance of the media and coverage? Can't address one without addressing the other, they go hand and hand. H1N1 was hardly covered by the media during the Obama administration, why?

What about a private individual who for years accused the POTUS of not being a citizen with his birther con, using the media and engaging with / growing an ethno-nationalist base. I see someone who knows how to use the media for his advantage. Saying outrageous things. Always denying and then attacking the messenger rather than disputing the charges directly.

What about
What about
Whataboutism, nice try

Have compassion as well as ambition and you’ll go far in life
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 10:42pm

I thought I had typed someone up but it didn’t go through it appears - super shitty straw man argument. H1N1 ended up resulting in an estimated 12k US deaths. And that’s a look-back study comparing to typical death rates, so it’s higher than just directly attributed deaths (which is what the COVID death count currently is). COVID is likely to take 10x as many lives despite us taking drastic measures. It’s not even fucking close to yell “WHAT ABOUT TH MEDIA H1N1???”

 
Most Helpful
Apr 25, 2020 - 1:39pm

Setting aside the hyperbole about Joe Biden’s mental faculties for a moment, he is a ‘meh’ run-of-the-mill Democratic candidate no where near as eloquent as Obama or sophomorically comedic as Trump. Biden is someone who at worst comes across as creepy towards women, and might implement some lightly progressive economic reform aside from any stimulus his treasury, Congress, or the Federal Reserve may recommend. You may not like Biden, but you know what you’re getting with him, nobody is going to get ‘Berned’ and markets like stability. If he does lose (likely) it will probably be because like you said he comes off as clueless at Trump sometimes but he’s way worse at bullshitting us about it.

Now compare that for a quick moment with Trump:

What economic policy can you point to that made this country better? As a commenter noted above unemployment had been falling for years before Trump even took office. Additionally his tax reform - arguably his only major contribution to the US economy - came at a time when real private business investment (one of the main economic functions of changes in taxes) likewise had been rising for years before he took office. So he took over a ‘failing’ Obama economy, took office, and I guess suddenly it was great? I will extend and olive branch and admit that I was taught globalization was a good thing in all my economics classes, but really there was no nuance behind why other than ‘everyone has a marginal advantage making something’ and more importantly the ramifications for lower and middle class Americans who are in fact not given the skills and resources to change jobs in industries with far greater capacity to change locations and technologies. This is an under appreciated thing about Trump’s platform and the economic argument he’s made to his followers, but given the fact that outsourcing and immigration are part of his daily routine and automation isn’t (a clearly greater threat assuring any repatriated factories will never bring the rust belt back to its glory days)... I can only assume he makes these arguments not out of intellectual understanding but the basest and easiest form of politics out there, ethnonationalist demagoguery.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking he knows anything about the economy, we have been doing well in spite of him not because of him. This is a guy who tells crowds US GDP was below 0 before he took office, US GDP lmao, a number that is literally in the trillions of dollars. This is a guy who tries to bully around the Federal Reserve and OPEC for lower interest rates and lower gas prices in a transparent bid to improve his re-election indicators. Clearly he has no understanding what Fed independence from politics means for the economy.

But sure, Trump is the guy who knows about the economy lmao. This is coming from a center right guy who voted for Romney (like many of you here), so sure go ahead and give this chimp another four years what could go wrong?

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:07pm

I think the funniest thing about people who think because he's "good businessman" that must mean he's knowledgeable about the U.S. and world economies (a terrible conclusion to make regardless of the businessman) is that he's hardly a good businessman. For someone who's reportedly received $400M in inheritance from his father over his lifetime, he'd be in better shape financially if he had just invested it all in the stock market. But he needed the flash of big sexy (and eventually bankrupting) real estate deals for his ego.

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 4:31pm

There's substantial evidence that he has far less than a billion (https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2019/05/08/why-we-took-trump-…)
He's at his core a conman. He himself called his campaign the biggest 1-800 commercial ever. He's also the type of conman who's delusional and whose disordered personality contains nothing else beyond his endless web of shit. I just want this embarrassing, exhausting mess to be over.

Array
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:17pm

“Record Breaking Prosperity” - whenever I hear stuff like this I’m perplexed. We had 2.3% GDP growth last year and growth was decelerating coming into this year even before COVID. Manufacturing PMI numbers were bad late last year. Capital expenditures as a whole have been flat. Job growth the last three years lagged the prior term. And wage gains only slightly out gained the prior three years despite being at full employment.

Other than a short term sugar rush for two quarters post tax cuts, we’ve seen basically nothing that indicates that the economy was any better under trump than the last term of Obama. Add in how awful trump has been on foreign policy, COVID response, climate, rampant corruption and nepotism, etc and it’s pretty clear majority of all but one subsection of demographics prefer Joe to Trump.

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:58pm

AllDay_028:

“Record Breaking Prosperity” - whenever I hear stuff like this I’m perplexed. We had 2.3% GDP growth last year

C'mon, the POTUS has said the economy has been the greatest in the history of the United States. Don't you believe him?

http://www.series65examtutor.com
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:23pm

I assume all the "Democrats will wreck the economy!" posters are children about to vote in their first Presidential election. I'll refer you to my old pre-Covid post:

Alt-Ctr-Left:

Why exactly do people think Trump has done anything besides benefit from the late stages of a long economic expansion cycle?

Here is a graph over the last 10 years showing the growth in non-farm payrolls with the dates removed. Can you point and tell me where exactly Trump stepped in and supercharged our job market?

Unemply

Here is a graph over the last 10 years showing the quarterly GDP growth with the dates removed. Can you point and tell me where exactly Trump stepped in and supercharged our economy?

GDP

Here is a graph over the last 10 years showing the SP500 with the dates removed. Can you point and tell me where exactly Trump stepped in and supercharged our stock market?

Stocks

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:25pm

Also, I don't want to hear a word about Biden's senility when we have Trump wondering aloud if we can drink bleach and shine UV lights into our lungs to cure Covid. Enough.

when you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression
 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

I'll echo this point. Trump is held to such a low standard compared to any other politician it's astounding. His supporters bash accomplished politicians over conspiracies but can conveniently ignore all the dangerous and wrong things he has said over the years. Cults of personalities in politics are really a frightening trend

I’m a fun guy. Obviously I love the game of basketball. I mean there’s more questions you have to ask me in order for me to tell you about myself. I'm not just gonna give you a whole spill... I mean, I don't even know where you're sitting at
 
  • Investment Manager in AM - Equities
Apr 25, 2020 - 2:48pm

Joe is more middle ground than the rest. We know what to expect with him. He's not great but he's not horrible. That being said, I bet trump wins.

Money can purchase freedom, if you have the guts to buy it
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 3:21pm

Independent by nature but seeing the current administration's handling of quite frankly most issues faced by this country over the past 3+ years I don't see them winning in November. The Coronavirus response has been the latest (injecting disinfectants?) but other bright ideas have included nuking hurricanes and buying Greenland. I certainly don't get a calming feeling of confidence.

To be honest, I think both Trump and Biden show signs of dementia - but I simply think Biden would surround himself with more qualified people/decent human beings. Additionally, I feel like a more progressive administration would be better equipped to handle a long-term recovery in what likely will be our generations New Deal (jobs programs, stimulus packages, etc.).

Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.
 
Apr 26, 2020 - 2:09am

The CBO estimates that the budget deficit will rise by $3.7T this year, under this administration, but do go on. Speaking of printing money, Trump has needed help from China financially. He took a $211M loan from the Bank of China in 2012 and owes money to plenty of foreign banks (DB) because American banks won’t lend to him (again, doesn’t scream success).

I looked up the Biden comment you were referencing. This was the full quote: “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man, I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.”

He then made a reference to them not being able to figure out their own situations at home, specifically, regarding corruption within their system and misspoke (see my prior dementia comment) saying China Sea instead of South China Sea. Like I said, I by no means think Biden is the best presidential candidate in the United States. But of the two, major candidates remaining, I believe he will surround himself with better people. “You are the company you keep.”

Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 3:23pm

Wow, this thread is going far different than I expected when I clicked. Minimal Trump shilling or racial dog-whistles.

I have nothing to add, other intelligent posters have already deconstructed the “record-breaking prosperity” argument (2% GDP growth shouldn’t take trillions in tax cuts to achieve)

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 3:27pm

Oh yeah and once you become an adult you will (hopefully) learn that what’s best for you directly isn’t always best for everyone, or even best for you in a holistic sense.

Trump is “great” in the most basic sense for high earners, white males, etc., but the long-term prosperity of this nation requires us lifting up the lowest class and allowing them to drive economic growth. The richest just pocket too much of those marginal dollars whereas lower-income brackets are spenders.

(Not saying saving is bad but you need a balance - see Japan where oversaving has stagnated that economy for over a decade now)

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 5:14pm

Agree completely - I also think this ties hand and hand with immigration (especially if the current ban continues long after this current situation ends). My favorite counterpoint when my, similar looking, white male friends bring up immigration as a detriment to this country? ~45% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or the child of one. They aren't coming for our jobs - many create them.

Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.
 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

As someone that has immigrant parents from one of the poorest and most war-torn countries in the world, there is a real argument that immigration should be focused towards having people come to the country that will better the economy and add value. I live in a neighborhood that is 60% Indian and homes are $1.5-2MM, these people are hungrier for success than the poorest WSO student that eats ramen 3 times a day and we would be a lot worse off if they were not able to come to the U.S.

The fact that there is no automatic work visa for international students that earn bachelor's in the U.S. is kind of shameful tbh and is one of the first things I would change.

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 5:46pm

Anyone who still gets hyped up about the benefit of tax cut should read this
https://www.wsj.com/articles/did-the-u-s-tax-overhaul-do-what-it-promis…

Especially on corporate side, there wasn’t really any investments but more share buybacks (which ties back to the whole AA debacle recently). Anyone remember last year Trump screaming at Fed to cut rates? Left less room when it was actually needed last month and every time Fed tried to cut stocks went down even more. The guy is surrounded by outcast radicals like Navarro, Stephen Miller and Bannon (and well Kushner). It shows in this administrations policy and actions at every step.

Array
 
Apr 25, 2020 - 6:43pm

It seems pretty obvious to me that Democrats aren't very interested in winning this year. And why should they be? The Economic Disaster is going to last well into 2022 at minimum. Better to wait until 2024 in a healthier environment, assuming none of the economic backlash of the incoming Depression. After all, common folk attribute economic conditions to the current president. I think the Democrats are smarter than they seem. They are just playing dumb, like a hot blonde at Florida State. My 2 cents.

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 8:40pm

sounds like you didn’t actually ask this original question with the intent of having any kind of open mind OP. Branding someone a socialist doesn’t prove anything other than how ignorant you are - you already live in a country with a myriad of fundamentally socialist policies that enjoy incredible popularity in the public like Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, etc. so I regret to inform you you’re a socialist too. Just because some of these programs benefit the country, it doesn’t mean the people commenting above want to declare Marshall law and redistribute our bonuses evenly among all the analysts. This is WSO lmao I can’t think of a more ridiculous demographic to say that about, you think a bunch of primarily finance/econ majors/professionals stand up every night like the Manchurian candidate and pledge themselves to a Karl Marx poster on their wall too?

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 9:32pm

the Republican Party is a bunch of socialists - corporate socialist cronies. if anything, this recent joke of a stimulus bill proves that we definitely, 100% could afford public tuition, paid maternity leave etc. Spending trillions of dollars on wars in the Middle East and to bail out companies who participated in stock buybacks instead of saving for a rainy day is a lot more expensive

 
Apr 25, 2020 - 7:59pm

If I may answer with a completely cold heart I'd say that finance people would absolutely love a complete incompetent idiot (it's not really his fault as he is basically 1 bad day from visiting Jesus but still) in power as that means that they would be the ones running the show. By the way, if you've ever wondered why state-level politicians are so stupid this is why.

 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

Billy Joesdfgh:

Because Orange Man bad.

While I'm sure your alt-right echo chambers have made you think this meme is some deep insight into the opposition to Trump while simultaneously ignoring and excusing his plethora of failures, it isn't.

It simply makes you come off as a moron.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

 
Apr 26, 2020 - 9:57am

In all honesty, it's simply an example of game theory. Trump is an incumbent, which is a distinct advantage. Only two incumbents in recent history, HW and Carter( Ignore Ford), have lost. The former is the most underrated president, post WW-II from a foreign policy standpoint, while the latter was a poor president. Democrats will not make the same mistake they did in 16', having little to no presence in the mid-west/ PA. Their headquarters is in Milwaukee this year. As a result of Gretchen Whittmer, who is a dead woman walking, Trump will likely win MI, as well as a Republican challenger taking the senate seat there. Biden will likely end up winning WI. The dems barley lost it in 16', and they will surely have their openly gay and very popular US senator campaigning there for him. Florida is a genuine toss up, as is PA and Arizona. Republicans will lost Corey Gardner's senate seat, and Steve Bullock will pick up the open senate seat in Montana for the dems. In summary( sorry for the waxing), Trump will likely edge out Biden. Republicans lose more house seats, and their majority senate slips to only senator or they fall to a minority of one. Hopefully Trump doesn't destroy the party and create issues for legitimately qualified candidates like Nikki Haley in 24'

 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

God this shit is stupid.

luga12:

Given the record-breaking prosperity the US has experienced over the past couple of years, how could someone in banking or entering banking possibly support Joe Biden?

The US has not experienced "record-breaking prosperity," full stop.

luga12:
Setting politics aside,

You're literally talking about politics. The entire post is about politics.

luga12:
I am genuinely perplexed as to what Joe Biden actually brings to the table,

A lifetime of political accomplishments and center-left policies.

luga12:
half of the time he doesn't seem to know where he is or what he's talking about.

Patently wrong, but you're "setting politics aside," right?

luga12:
It's a very scary thought that someone who is obviously senile could be running the free world.

We've had that the last 4 years. Don't get it confused.

luga12:
Not trying to get political here, I know many people disagree with Trump.

Again, you're being political by...solely discussing politics.

luga12:
As young bankers or young hopeful bankers, who would you rather have at the helm of overseeing possibly the largest economic recovery since the Great Depression? And why ?

Joe Biden, because he understands the situation. Trump doesn't.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

“Joe Biden is senile!”

But nothing to be said about the guy has to get intelligence briefings in the form of a picture book, his name repeatedly referenced on reports so as to keep his short attention span focused, and who literally slurs his words on camera (many of you may not know this but for a man with his age and diet this is the classic sign of a stroke) do you still feel great about those nuclear codes? My primary reason for voting against him isn’t even economic, I would probably benefit tremendously under a laissez-faire economic policy.

 
Apr 27, 2020 - 8:55am

I work with almost all Republicans. Only one is actually a Trumper. The rest of them are disgusted by him and think he's a complete moron.

The odd thing is, I don't know if I'd put money on even one of them voting against him. Vote third party or just stay home? Maybe. Vote Democrat? Doubtful.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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