A DCF in need of a good scrub
Company: Norfolk Southern Corporation
Industry: Transportation, logistics
Sector: Railroads
My main concerns about the model are as follows:
- What are the professional expectations are regarding the citation of references for the input assumptions; use a note or comment?
- In my exit multiple approach, using only base case assumptions, the TEV and share price is much higher than the results of the perpetuity growth method. Send help.
- The model makes use of switches but I’m thinking I should dial it back a bit. Again, thoughts? I want this model easy to use and practical.
- “There are no options excluded from the dilution calculations due to exercise prices exceeding the average market price of Common Stock for each of the years ended December 31, 2020, 2019, and 2018.”
If I’m interpreting the note from their 10k correctly, does this mean that there was no dilutive effect on shares due to the weighted average granted option prices being higher than common share prices?
Additionally, I often resorted to using historical averages in the base case most of the FCF line items. I did not forecast all three statements and instead calculated value as a percentage of “x”. I plan to forecast revenue and balance sheet to build a schedule for working capital items.
About the FCF Inputs:
Inputs for each line item are entered at the beginning of the forecast period with additional inputs at the end as a target. Built in some tapering toward these targets as well, but like above, not sure this functionality is needed. I've considered just making each year’s assumption an independent input itself.
Note: all comments have been left hidden to reduce clutter. I wasn’t sure if there was a standard practice one way or the other. You'll find notes with questions as well. Feel free to address those as well.
The entire 10k used for the DCF is also in the file. Unfortunately some of the tables did not import as tables (supporting tables, etc.)
Looking forward to feedback.
Attachment | Size |
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Norfolk Southern DCF 200.99 KB | 200.99 KB |
Just wanting to verify that my attached excel file is visible with my original post as I don't see it.
I don’t see the excel file either
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