AAPL - Where do you think stock will go?

short term - risky, it's up there right now.

long term - obvious buy. will become the dominant company in the world over the next 15 years

On a related note - at first I wasn't sure, but now that I got one: the ipad is the most amazing thing ever for long flights amongst other things. My flights home from China 3 or 4 times per year just become 50x better. It's also a great business tool for me because I spend a good amount of time gathering market data on real estate for comparables analysis, etc... and i can just walk around a city taking insane notes into a spreadsheet about prices, sales, etc, for like 10 hours without recharging, worrying about losing track of numbers, and so on. Amazing machine for a banker on the go... though you'll still need your laptop back at the hotel room.

Steve jobs has a lot of resistance to immortality. Know what I mean?

adapt so are you saying it might be time to short as soon as they fuck something up ?

it is down 4% after earnings :X

slightest little hitch in that earnings call on the lower than expected iPad sales and look what happened

I would consider shorting Apple at this point. It's the largest name on the NASDAQ. They are having seriously declining margins. Two of their most important (According to Steve Jobs at least) key components in the iPhone4 are produced by the two largest Android manufacturers. Android phones have had a significantly increased market share over the iPhone, particularly in the last two quarters. Despite the Verizon move, the iPhone will not capture as much of the Verizon crowd as Apple thinks. There's also the issue of how much cash Apple has in it's domestic bank accounts as well...

Huh, what did he just say?

Well, there are two things to take note of, the cash and parts.

The screen and the processor are made by two of the biggest Android manufacturers. LG makes the screen and Samsung makes the processor. So, considering that, they have the ability to squeeze Apple for more money and increase their costs while not affecting their overhead for Android phones. Couple this with the fact that Android is hardware agnostic, and Apple has a real problem when it comes to competition. They are limited by having a closed hardware structure, where as their competition across all levels (not just in the cell phone markets), is not limited to those strict restrictions, particularly their cell phone competition.

The cash is a much more interesting story. I really wonder how much cash they have stuck overseas. This is important because it means that Apple is not as cash happy as they appear to be. For every dollar they have overseas, they need to pay taxes on it when they bring it back into the US, so we're talking a ~30% discount on an overall basis when it's brought back in.

Couple those two facts with the recent flash crash in the stock, near perfect movement and the 23 weeks (as it stands) of sequential outflows of funds from the US Equities markets, and you need to wonder how much of their equity growth is real. The other thing we are not mentioning is the US markets as a whole. A devalued dollar and an increased commodities costs (did anyone factor that into their analysis?) coupled with China's decreased exports of Rare Earth Metals to various countries should make anyone question the potential for Apple to be a thousand dollar stock by 2015, or are we assuming that it will be $1000 with a seriously devalued dollar?

Just some food for thought.

Google