Any reason markets aren’t closed?
I see only bad things happening with markets open. There’s no liquidity. 30 year US treasuries are nearly 150 bps bid/ask. Ok that 48 hrs trading range. Heard tlt traded close to 2% or 30 bps below the cash market. And the cash market traded 50 bps or so not that long ago.
Any firm that isn’t bankrupt is operating with tight risks and not holding inventory.
I’m sure there are hedge funds down massive. Some who haven’t yet liquidated. They literally have nothing to liquidated into.
No one has a clue how to price anything. I can model explosive inflation on huge stimulus and deflation right now.
I can see only bad things happening at this point. The only one with liquidity is buffet. Not sure if he even has liquidity. I’m sure his 200 billion in cash is in short term bonds. Good luck finding a way to turn that into cash without selling to the fed.
The smart money had stepped aside currently as far as investors, there was evidence a huge drop was coming. No reason for the money that got out to come back in yet.
Smart or dumb. That’s not the point. The plumbing’s gone. It’s pure margin call market now. No trading desks operating at any scale.
off the run spreads are actually very tame..look at this smooth curve..nothing like 2008
off the run spreads are actually very tame..look at this smooth curve..nothing like 2008
TLT is only used by dumb retail. Institutions trade the actual US Treasuries and treasury futures
That looks ok. But can you transact at those prices? I’m not seeing that liquidity. Zbub had a 250 tick move in 24 hours. Like 30-40 basis points. Cash basis trades have had huge moves - which would basically be that whole curve. And it doesn’t look like much liquidity on the screens though some of its there in icebergs and stuff.
Granted it’s only just into Europe open but i am seeing 4 tick wide market for the in the run 10 year cash - 3 million bid - 3 million offered. It’s not that bad during day but that’s still huge
Also you said it yourself the fed owns those off the runs. Therefore no one else is in them and you wouldn’t find signs of distress in a market where the owner of said securities is the central bank. You would want to look at the ability to transact in other areas.
No clue what you're talking about but boy if it doesn't sound fascinating hahaha
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