Any worry with the market?

Hey guys,

So as many of you know there’s been a good amount of panic in the markets lately with continued trade war talk and new tariffs being possibly angled by both China and the US.

We’ve also seen negative interest rates become very real for a lot of Europe and some Asian countries. Finally the Yuan devaluation past 7/$1 has also led to a rather massive sell off of financials and big tech.

I’m curious to hear from some of the guys that have been around for a while. Is anyone worried about their jobs if these issues continue?

 

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Most Helpful

short answer, no. if a recession would completely destroy your way of life, you're living your life wrong. this is natural, just like how old tall trees die in the forest, fall down and cause all sorts of chaos but not kill the forest, the economy must go through periods of expansion and contraction (no "great moderation" like they said right before the GFC)

pay much less attention to pundits, they do not have your best interests in mind, and most of them have abysmal track records (larry summers, paul krugman, bill gross when talking about stocks, jim cramer)

https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/and-the-hits-just-kept-co…

and just so you know, they were calling for the same thing all the time with obama, I recall tea party fanboys mentioning gold, QE, the national debt (nevermind what Bush did to it), and whatever else fit their agenda saying that obama would tank the economy.

technically, yes you can have a recession that's just a bad slowdown exacerbated by a shock (see 1991), but usually recessions are caused by booms which turn into busts (tech boomed, then busted, housing boomed, then busted, etc.).

when I look at the US stock market (broadly speaking), I do not see the boom people are talking about. positive returns does not mean things are overvalued, and while I have a lot of disdain for our country's love of living beyond its means, if you are truly an investor and not a trader, don't worry about this sort of thing.

just get the buy decision roughly right (meaning you're not buying companies at 50x earnings with dogshit balance sheets), they'll make it through whatever downturn happens, stay diversified, and focus on the single highest potential returning investment - yourself.

 

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