With Bernie and his socialism brigade there is a high chance that he might win, he’s talked about taking some drastic steps to stop the influence from Wall Street including breaking up the banks, glass-stragglers, trading tax and much more. I can see how these measures can have major impact, especially the trading tax on some market making and spread trading firms.
You guys scared too?
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Libs tell fibs
Would be very scared if he won, but do not see a high chance that is going to happen. But I was at the gym the other day with a guy who was head of a investment firm, first thing he said he would do is sell most stuff and start laying people off.
99% of people who say things like that are as full of shit as the people who swore they were moving to Canada after Trump won.
Potential silver lining is that it could create a lot of M&A activity if he starts forcing firms to break up (and other firms would want to pick up the pieces)
Would the restructuring groups make a ton as well?
As long as firms make money no. IB M&A yes as they will help on divestitures etc. Restructuring firms would only make tons of money if default rates went up as a consequence of that, and J do not see that happening.
I think the net loss across teams would greatly exceed this gain, also if the bank you’re working for got broken down, it’ll be epic fk all.
I think we are gonna see some of the moderates consolidate and all choose to back one person after Super Tuesday. After this I think Bernie losses the nomination but either way I think any Democratic candidate is gonna struggle to beat Trump in the general. He's gonna have a lot of ammo of whatever candidate it is going too far left in the primary. If Trump losses its because he screwed it up, not because any of these Dem candidates should really beat him.
that won't happen. Bernie will have already amassed a big enough lead in delegates and probably will have the majority by the convention. The Dem establishment WANTS to get rid of Bernie but they simply can't. The snowball has already started rolling, Bernie has way more cash than his opponents, and will secure the nomination unless he only has a plurality by the time the convention roles around and the Dems choose another canidate but that is not that likely.
You don't follow politics or the current data trends very closely do you?
I'm just regurgitating what I hear on a couple different political podcasts I listen to but okay smarty pants.
I'm hoping another Great Recession happens if Bernie wins. Think about it.
stock market tanks and now there's alot of discount buys
Housing market tanks, so now my avocado toasts on the daily won't impede me from getting a house and acquiring discounted multi-family units
Cons:
I had to take private loans for school since I didn't check enough boxes for Fed/California, so I get screwed
It becomes less likely I would ever raise a family in the US, which may prompt me to finally move
My ancestors who have been here since governing plymouth rock colony will be turning in their graves
Meh, on second thought, I'd rather let manlet Mike Bloomer run the country.
Trump will only win if the Democrats completely screw up. Which they seem to be doing quite well so far.
Sanders, if he wins the nomination, will have a decent shot.
In head to head races - Sanders is +2 on Trump in Ohio Sanders is tied with Trump in Florida Sanders is +7 on Trump in Michigan Sanders is +5 on Trump in Pennsylvania
Assuming current polls hold, the true blue and true red states hold and - Trump wins Ohio Trump wins Florida
Sanders wins Michigan Sanders wins PA
Minnesota becomes irrelevant, but assume it goes Sanders (or Trump, its 10 electoral votes won't make a difference)
The race will likely come down to North Carolina with its 15 electoral vote, with Sanders walking in with 268 Electoral College votes and Trump at 255. Winner of NC takes it all.
Sanders is currently +5 on Trump in North Carolina ... for those thinking this is insanity: the RNC smartly chose Charlotte to host its convention this year... similarly the DNC smartly chose Wisconsin.... if NC went Trump, and Wisconsin + Minnesota went Sanders; Sanders wins.
In terms of how it impacts those in the financial services industry? We'd all be fucked.
...
TLDR; support anyone but Sanders or Warren
Let's not forget, he has health issues.
same can be said for Trump
Will he be able to pass anything though? I think just off executive orders yeah it'll hit finance but I don't think we'll be saying mass layoffs or anything of that sort.
I don’t quite think the current polls will hold. Once (If) it comes down to Bernie vs Trump and more moderate voters pay attention, it will turn for trump.
No one could possibly play more attention to Trump than they already do. The dude has been covered by every media outlet, talked about everywhere, every single day for nearly 5 years since he announced his campaign.
Trump will not win moderates.
Bernie nomination just makes Trump more likely to win. Furthermore these moderate Democrats were going to be 95% as destructive as Bernie anyway. If you think a “public option” isn’t just a back door ploy toward Medicare for All, please DM me about a bridge I’ve got for sale in Brooklyn.
All these folks on the left want to crush the individual spirit that put this country in front of the world for 200 years, and you should be glad when anything happens that reduces their chance of taking the White House. Go Bernie.
Bernie is horrid.
But that "individual spirit" embodied by Trump is what is ending our reign of being the top dog since Teddy Roosevelt.
Is that why our economy is doing so well while Europe and most of the west is faltering?
This is where the Bernie fears just lose all credibility. Much like the GOP mocked the Dems a la "this is how you got Trump" for calling every nominee racist until the real racist Trump came along.
Don't get me wrong, I'm livid the Dems are gonna nominate Bernie. I think almost any other candidate in the race would stomp Trump, and now it's gonna be a toss up at best. He's just as old, just as unrealistic policy-wise, just as free a spender, and has 30 years of commentary Fox News will love to exploit. I'd put money on Trump getting reelected now.
That beings said, the Senate will not flip Blue with Bernie on the ticket, so I will begrudgingly vote for Bernie, as we can always reverse policy, and I deem an unrestrained Trump to be the far greater threat to our democracy.
Out of curiosity, which 1-2 candidates do you think would perform best vs Trump?
All I know is, public option is effectively Medicare for All in the long term because the public option will be subsidized by the taxpayer. It will offer market-like benefits for below-market cost, and most people will have no rational choice but to take that option. The few that remain on private plans will eventually see their cost/benefit deteriorate due to the loss of other customers on those plans, and that will of course force more migration. The pattern repeats a few more times in a classic death spiral, and we've got Medicare for All.
People can disagree on whether that's good. All I'm saying is, its the same thing. So all the politicians saying "oh I'm not all extreme like those Medicare for All folks, I'm just a public option guy" . . are liars. That's all I'm saying.
I'm not concerned unless the senate flips big time.
Breaking up big banks would be fantastic. More seats at more desks in more offices = more IB jobs, more trading jobs, more back office stuff, etc.
Banking isn't going anywhere. Trading isn't going anywhere. Bernie can focus on healthcare and immigration for the next 4 years.
Wealth taxes would be exceptional for active managers. If you’re going to lose 3% to Uncle Sam, suddenly you might be more willing to support more generous fee structures if there’s a real promise of an upside.
No politician in the US has ever killed an industry-the closest you can find is the Volstead act, and that just pushed it all underground.
I think if Bernie is the nominee, Trump will most likely win, except if China's coronavirus keeps going.
Wow, Russians really did nothing when the interfered with our elections.
I'm not American, but will there be any Republican presidential nomination race going on? Or is Trump 100% going to be their nominee again?
Tbh, I don't think Sanders would beat Trump.
100% the nominee.
In that case, it's interesting to see how the tables have turned. 4 years go the GOP really tried to prevent him from becoming their nominee... lol.
There are two running opposed, but Trump will effectively be the nominee for the republican party.
Forced divestitures, harder to secure big mergers so F500 buys up a lot of little firms, tax on trades which slows the benefit of automatic trading...idk seems to me it will suck for buyside (both public and private equity) but be great for IB and sellside. More deals and more banks means more seats and higher fees. CFOs and CSOs trying to navigate a new world means more mandates and calls to bankers.
What about S&T divisions at banks? The tax would hit market making pretty hard I think.
If Bernie is the nominee, my guess is that he will get decimated by Trump. My rationale is partially that people like me will sit out. I despise Trump and would vote for almost anyone other than him. The glaring exception is Bernie Sanders. I’m not sure if I will sit out or actively go vote for Trump, but I will not be voting for Sanders. I can’t imagine I’m the only one.
Sitting out is almost a vote for Trump. I prefer Bloomberg but would still vote for Sanders if he is the nominee.
Better change your username from "financeabc" to "unemployed123"
No doubt this will be common for many people. The question becomes, are there more OnlyBernie or NeverBernie Dem voters?
Ultimately my gut is that the moderate Democrats hate Trump much more and will find their reasons to support Bernie, i.e. there are very few real NeverBernie types on the left. Just a gut feel from living among them in NY/DC my whole adult life.
Only opposing theory I can think of is, do any of them weigh the fact that a Trump victory means that they can nominate a new Democrat in 4 years whereas a Bernie victory means you have to wait 8 years to see your favorite candidate run again.
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