Anyone tired of the constant tech scene hype?
Everytime I go to see the Bloomberg television in my office or view some form of financial media, I always see some hype about XXX startup planning to change the world again. Yes its great and all that silicon valley is getting a lot of attraction but they don't need to shove it down our throats so much. Its getting annoying the number of times I see the word "entrepreneur". They seem to not put much attention to how many startups failed or what happened in the last bubble. There are other industries that deserve attention too.
What you just said should be evidence that you should never move to the bay area. There is a massive difference in the bay area today than there was in the late 90s. The majority of funding is coming directly from the bay area as opposed to from the markets. Many start ups are not doing an IPO, they aren't pushing their companies to receive massive valuations, they are staying lean and actually building real businesses.
COMPLETELY spot on. Many are approached by VCs only to tell em to keep walking. Will be interesting however once VCs and others easily replicate what they are doing.
Tech is getting rid of VCs by creating tech to do what VCs do.
Not to mention if I was in high school today and looking at what I wanted to do after college I would be looking at tech over finance.
I agree with the OP, while there are some "real" companies coming out of this, a lot of this is unsustainable. There are so many tech companies of negligible real world value. Most start-ups fail, it's just not that interesting to talk about the ones that flame out, they are mostly going to be smaller and pre-IPO, but even among those that do get to IPO, their profits are generally eh and their P/E astronomical. It's another bubble.
I've never really been a "tech" person, but the recent culmination of tech crazed investors and innovators makes me sick and annoyed. It's come to the point where I completely reject the notion of ever trying to invest in tech because it'd be fueling the bullshit fire. Maybe I'm just not progressive enough and too romantic (not in that sense), but I always appreciated companies that build things; tangible, big, complex things. And no, not complex as in Google glass. Complex as in a new drug that helps with MS remission or vaccines that help chronic illnesses.
It's on the TV all the time because it gets good press and attracts non-Wall Street folks to the financial news. It's a helluva lot sexier than a bit on hydraulic fracturing even though there are probably more entrepreneurial types making a killing doing that than in tech. Tech also gets press because people directly deal with their products, as well. People use Twitter so they like to hear news stories about it. People go to Whole Foods so putting the CEO on CNBC helps boost ratings.
You've got people who don't even know what the acronym means talking about Twitter's IPO. I was just in SF this past weekend visiting a buddy who's working for a tech start-up (real fucking original!!) and he told me I "shouldn't miss the opportunity to invest in that IPO." Same kid a year ago introduced me to his uncle for an investment banking intro--turns out his uncle was a financial advisor. Gimme a break
They all sound the same and use the same exact buzz words
I am deeply skeptical of the current tech environment. I grew up in the Bay Area and, although I haven't been back in the last ~2 years, it feels like the 90s bubble all over again. There is some really bubble-esque behavior going on... Facebook is building employee housing.
There are a few differences this time. The planned exit is a sale to GOOG / AAPL / FB etc. as opposed to an IPO. And those companies are paying real money. GOOG et al are making a lot of money, and have massive cash hoards to use on acquisitions. Investors haven't been critical of these purchases - what's a 100m purchase when you have $50b of net cash?
However, the valuations are still ridiculous. The barriers to entry are lower than ever - something like instagram is not a miracle of web design / software engineering. Programming in python, ruby, iOS, etc. is much easier than C++ or C.
As far as revenue generation goes, it is a race to the bottom. Apps are usually free and supported by ads. And I do not believe the current advertising environment is sustainable. The bull case is something along the lines of "Americans spend much more time online than in front of a TV, but 70%+ of ad dollars still go to television". But how many people actually intentionally click through on online ads? I think it is most the 50+ crowd. Young people are using ad blockers. And I remain fundamentally unconvinced that a company like Facebook will be able to monetize user data to an extent that justifies its valuation.
I think if there was a disruption in the advertising market, we would see the bubble collapse fairly rapidly. If GOOG was forecasting declining revenues/margins, it would be a lot less willing to spend cash on driver-less cars and solar projects.
Three points: 1) It's precisely because of the VC bubble that the smart/serial entrepreneurs are self-funding. The disruption caused by down-rounds when the music stops will be enormous, and anyone with a real business + resources doesn't want to risk that.
2) Incremental improvements in the online advertising model will be what drive the increased share. Stupid example but social ads get that average age down a lot.
3) B2B startups have huge runways to turn everything a company into a managed cloud service. This is pretty much independent of advertising dollars. Arguably countercyclical for capex dollars as well.
There are real companies in this bubble. Salesforce, despite its frothy valuation, has improved CRM for many businesses. The average app / social media business is less compelling.
I view the startup scene as unsound. Large Cap tech companies will sometimes buy startups just for the engineering talent, with the hope that the "hero programmer" will come in and create a new growth driver for the company. I am somewhat skeptical of this notion. I do not doubt the statistics that the top X% of engineers are many times more productive than average. I just have to wonder whether their productivity is due to some innate gift, or they were just lucky enough to work on a project that resonated with the market.
It didn't help that investors were starved for growth and alternatives to the stock market post-crisis. If you view the equity markets as toxic, a private VC investment doesn't look too bad.
Add to this the fairly dismal opportunities for college graduates post-crisis. If the job market looks unappealing, why not work for yourself? And the current bubble (mobile, web 2.0) has virtually no barriers to entry, much like the 90s internet bubble. VC money provides a salary, and the possibility of a multi-million dollar payday on exit provides the incentive.
I will say this: there is a secular trend towards increased consumer spending on electronics. The latest iPhone now confers more status than a pair of designer jeans or branded shoes. Electronic entertainment is growing faster than traditional recreational activities, even cannibalizing things like television.
The tech scene really hasn't changed all that much over the past 5-7 years. It gets a lot of press because they're creating products/offering services using mediums that are meant to reach people (social media). Because they're spending so much time pimping their businesses out on The Twit/FB/G+, a lot more are bound to get on the news these days.
They're also getting on the news because these are things people think about and use everyday. Everybody can buy and interact with a smartphone app. When you buy oil, you're not interacting with it, you're sticking it in your car and forgetting about it.
That said, a lot of this is bullshit. I don't have high hopes for most of the social media space (FB being the exception - not that I have high hopes, but I don't think they're going to bust in the next 5 years). Tech in general does have and will keep having some pretty cool breakthroughs. I love companies like Google, Apple, and Microsoft. Not necessarily because they're pumping out new things, but because they're perfecting the shit out of what they do have. Office 365? That shit blew my mind, perfectly done. And MSFT isn't the only company.
I'm guessing you never used Windows 8.
That is correct. Though I've never heard anyone say anything bad about it... in fact most people I've spoken to really like it.
All I'll say is I am pretty jealous of the easy money some of these kids seem to come by due to inflated valuations.
Have you guys heard of Hortonworks? Box? Marketo? FireEye? Github? Skout? Cloudera? Workday? Fusion-IO? (OK, you've probably heard of Box.)
There are plenty of phenomenal startups/recent IPOs that are absolutely crushing it, but don't get much in the way of press because they don't have consumer-facing technology. Most of the start-ups that get written up have a product that you or I use. Like SnapChat, or Instagram, or Tinder or some shit. None of those companies should be worth $1BN. I agree. But there's a fuckload of money flowing into companies doing crazy shit that most WSO users have never even heard of.
So yeah, I think the hype surrounding the tech space is mostly justified, but it's misplaced. Palantir, for example, is doing some incredible shit with big data. But Joe Reporter doesn't understand the significance of their work because they don't have an app and he majored in English. So he writes about the 51st "Like Seamless, but for Laundry!" knock-off because he's got it on his iPhone. And skeptics knock Silicon Valley for not doing anything useful because the only thing they hear about is what's printed in the New York Times.
I'm all for new apps on my phone, but I won't touch that sector with a 29.5 ft pole yet alone my wallet.
I like it. Mainly cuz it reduces competition in finance. Additionally i think the tech scene is both interesting and valuable. So even though i'm not a part of it, its still cool.
Although it does make finance seem less prestigious in comparison, thats not a big deal to me.
it's a bubble
just look at the salaries on offer for basic web development skills
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