I've been reading a lot about how many players in the market expect yields to to rise sometime in 2010, as the Fed ends quantitative easing...but at the same time, the fed says how it is committed to keeping rates low for an "extended period of time"....what do you guys think? buy put options on treasuries?
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I am probably in the minority on this, but I think they might rise slightly or not at all over the next year.
I think there is too much pressure to keep unemployment down and a rate hike at this point would be devastating.
I am currently long intermediate term govt's but only up to a duration around 7. Big fan of GNMA's
Prices fall -> Yields rise.
Everyone but Goldman thinks prices are going to continue to fall, last I heard.
yes, depends on when the Fed hikes though
It's coming.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20100107a.htm
I'm thinking some Fed action around end of Q2 - beginning of Q3 will get yields moving upward.
yields are going to rise bc of the sheer scale of the supply hitting the market imo. if economic numbers continue to show signs of stabilization/improvement people are going to move into risk assets which will lead to a rise in yields. at the first sign of fed hikes, imo 3rd or 4th qtr this year we will see epic flattening.
Anyone else still think 10-yr rates will not be going above 4% by the end of the year?
I was surprised at the extremely healthy 30-yr demand @ the auction yesterday.
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