Regardless of my opinion on Soy Boys, who are the root cause of 90% of the problems in our current society, this industry is going to grow massively. Anything under $100 seems attractive, even though its 180% up on its IPO day.. This is the cannabis craze 2.0 IMO..
Thoughts?
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Today someone on my desk was trying to talk up cannabis. I said cannabis is today's bitcoin, which prompted someone to said what will it be next year. I tend to think food could make waves, but some kind of technology applied to food; maybe just bc I'm reading sugar, salt, fat right now.
Love Beyond Meat and what they're doing; hate IPOs for companies looking to change the world. An IPO was, IMO, a mistake for Tesla because it forced them into the quarterly profit mode.
I'm most bullish on lab cultured meat, and not on meat alternatives. But maybe they'll work together to help society stop the killing (I guess I'm a soy boy on killing animals).
Fair point. I'm on the fence on this. Going public (and having a massively successful IPO) gives Beyond a lot of credibility when dealing with downstream - the restaurants and supermarkets. Being public means you're no longer a fly-by-night vegan niche player. You're now a proper big-ass food-tech player, with heft. The hardest work for Beyond is getting buyers to carry their SKUs and this helps.
Also, it's an arms race - and Beyond is losing. Impossible Foods has better tech (their genetically modified soy heme). Impossible Burgers are generally understood to therefore taste better than Beyond's products. So Beyond HAS to go public in order to raise a warchest and try to out-innovate Impossible.
Otherwise Beyond will get killed by Impossible. Right now, if I was a restaurant chain, I don't see why I'd carry Beyond (other than the concerns over Impossible's GMO).
Thought about this further. Isn't going IPO pretty good for tech companies though? I mean, yes it sucks to manage for quarterly numbers, esp if you're doing long-dated R&D. But for tech companies that are more about the future growth potential (g) rather than current earnings isn't IPO exactly how you want to be financing your business growth? Esp true if you're a consumer-facing product like Beyond or Tesla. Would love to hear your thoughts ....
Yeah, IPO to a public company can definitely work for the right kind of company. The food industry is an insanely competitive industry with really low margins. I'm not sure I'm super bullish on a start-up food company's prospects when its investors see quarterly losses and realize that the upside for even a successful food company is not going to look like anything close to Facebook, Google because you simply cannot scale the way tech companies can (like, real tech companies--one that deliver an electronic product).
But IPO is definitley a fantastic way to blow through the money of emotional and irrational investors. And it may work. I'm just not bullish on the prospects of early stage investors. Building a profitable company will take a long time and in the interim Beyond is going to experience intense and brutal competition.
I still need to try this and see if it comes close enough to meat. If it can substitute for cheeseburgers and meatballs well enough, it will be a goldmine. If it can't and it's really just vegetarians and vegans saying it tastes like meat when it really doesn't at all...well...
Food substitutes in general, not just meat, have a terrible track record, IMO. If this can break the mold, I'm all in. Probably shouldn't eat red meat daily.
My boss was telling me yesterday that he recently tried the Impossible Burger and was so impressed by the flavor and texture that as soon as he finished it, he went and got a second one.
I was a vegetarian for 12 years. I'm back to eating meat, but not daily. Will be interesting to see how the business models will pan out for some of these meatless entities [joint ventures with fast food burger joints like BK's, selling their product in supermarkets for home consumption, etc].
I'm an omnivore - maybe the right term nowadays is "flexitarian" - and after reading your post, I decided to try the Impossible Burger from Fatburger. I ordered it alongside one of their normal Fatburgers to get a close side-by-side. The Impossible looked exactly the same (maybe slightly more uniform compared to the irregularly shaped meat burger) and the Impossible actually tasted better to me. It is truly remarkable.
I tried the BYND meat burger at A&W (in Canada) and frankly it's pretty damn good. I'd say it's at least as healthy as beef, the main problem, quality food wise is that it falls in the ultra transformed category of food.
Is it healthier than meat? Who knows, but it's a highly processed food. Among it's ingredients are "Natural" Flavors. McDonald's Fries, for example, contain "Natural" Beef Flavors.
Which ends up being artificial wheat and dairy byproducts
Neither meat or plant-based burgers are healthy!
They aren't meant to be. A burger is an indulgence.
The nutritional profile is similar (and a bit superior) to meat. Both have similar protein levels. Meat burgers have a lot of cholesterol - which plant based burgers don't have. Meat has no fiber - and plant-based burgers have a ton of fiber. However both meat burgers and plant-based burgers are loaded up with fat and calories.
That is because Impossible Burger and Beyond Meat (2 different companies competing in the plant based space) are trying to make their burgers taste as good as meat. So they load them up with salt and coconut oil. Tastes great. But certainly not healthy.
Given the fat content, calories, neither traditional meat nor plant-based alternatives can be considered healthy.
But it helps me out. But they work fine as an occasional indulgence.
In a burger bun with all the stuff I could argue it tasted pretty good, maybe superior in some situation since I did not feel too fat later. I'm all for the growth of BYND, looking good for them.
I read that Beyond Meat is going to specialize in more expensive types of "meats" due to high production costs.
I'm not too sold on the company and I believe it will be a niche product. It is kind of ironic that the people who will be mostly consuming this product are mostly anti-GMO/anti-processed food despite this being one of the most processed food products out there.
Expect pushback from the cattle industry (NY Times, $Paywall$): You Call That Meat? Not So Fast, Cattle Ranchers Say
Excerpt: "In recent weeks, beef and farming industry groups have persuaded legislators in more than a dozen states to introduce laws that would make it illegal to use the word meat to describe burgers and sausages that are created from plant-based ingredients or are grown in labs. Just this week, new meat-labeling bills were introduced in Arizona and Arkansas."
It will also be interesting to see how this battle plays out in California, because they have a large cattle/farm industry + Soy Boys/Vegans etc. It's almost guaranteed Texas, midwestern states, and southern states will make the use of the word meat illegal to describe these products.
We should also expect some push back against their product in foreign countries with large cattle/farming industries.
If Beyond Meat can't call their product meat, will it still carry the same valuation?
Aren't they already in front of this though? Their product is called the Impossible Burger, only their company is called Beyond Meat.
For "burger" products they should be fine, but how much growth is in that single product line? It's a pretty crowded space as is. My understanding is that the valuation is based off the potential for them to get into to other meat products like fish, pork, lamb, etc.
I think its a cool idea and I'd definitely try it once, but I highly doubt several hundred million meat eating Americans are going make lab meat part of their daily routine. I can already tell you that the EU citizens and the Japanese will most likely reject this product, if they even allow it to be sold in their countries in the first place.
Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are two different companies. Beyond went public, and Impossible is slated to go public soon. Beyond makes a wide array of plant-based "meats" including burgers, sausages, etc. Impossible focuses only on burgers which "bleed."
That "blood" is actually a genetically modified soy and beetroot blood that tastes like the heme in bloody meat. Hence to most consumers the Impossible Burger tastes more like meat.
I know dick about this, but I have to imagine it would be far easier to simulate the taste and texture of ground beef than it would to simulate a Ribeye or Fillet
You're right. Texture is difficult to get right - in both clean meat (where you have to use a scaffolding to layer the cells) and in plant-based meats. The hardest thing is getting the textures of a steak, or the crispiness of bacon.
Minces and ground meat are easy. That's why the first plant-based meats were chicken nuggets, fillets of fish, etc. followed by minced beef/pork. Harder is getting a sinewy and tough steak . It's also hard to get the mix of muscle, tissue, sinew and fat to work together. That's why bacon is so darn hard to do - you need to be both thin and have fat + meat together.
No one has managed to show me a convincing bacon alternative.
I've had some amazing minces and nuggets though. Gardein has a minced beef for use in chilis and hamburgers that's indistinguishable from meat. There's an Asian plant-based product called OmniPork which is excellent in dumplings - both juicy and the right kind of mince texture.
But no one has a good steak or bacon.
It doesn’t matter what states regulate about naming conventions. It can be overruled by federal law. In food labeling, federal law is supreme, even for less strict regulation.
But you're already wrong. Beyond Meat's products are already sold on many shelves. it's selling incredibly well and there is a nation-wide shortage for both Beyond Meat and Impossible Food products. It is not niche. In Skandanavia, McDonalds provided the McVegan, and it became their best selling item in weeks.
I don't think their goal is to scam consumers to begin with. Those who buy it know it's not animal meat.
I mean, the article makes a good number of examples: you have soy milk and other beverages, just like you have vegan mayonnaise, they get to use the name, but only specific consumers buy it. It's not a problem if you call it meat so long that's clear what's the content.
" beef and farming industry groups have persuaded legislators ... illegal to use the word meat"
That's nothing new. Animal ag industry has been fighting the use of "meat" and "milk" to describe plant-based alternatives for years. That fight will continue for years to come. The animal ag industry didn't invent the word "meat" or "milk" and they have no claim to it. Those words have been in the English language for hundreds/thousands of years.
Right now, some states have bowed to lobbyists. As more consumers gravitate towards plant-based eating (and it is already a huge category) you'll see the legal issue settle on making those words broadly available.
If anyone wants to do DD and try a beyond meat burger go the burger bar at any Whole Foods, you can choose between beyond burger, grass-fed beef and turkey patties. Personally, never bothered to try.
As an investor in the sector, I taste new plant-based meats daily.
For my money, Impossible Burger v. 2.0 is a major breakthrough. Impossible 2.0 tastes exactly like a big juicy burger. Go to FatBurger, Umami Burger, White Caste, and soon... over 25,000 Burger King locations.
Some people like Beyond Meat's burgers better. I do not. I find Beyond's products to be salty, and taste oily.
I find the "bleeding" heme juiciness of Impossible Burger to fool the mouth into thinking it's eating real beef, so I choose that instead.
I disagree with your idea of buying the burger at Whole Foods and testing it out at home. I think going to a restaurant to taste-test it is better (and more fun) because you're not used to cooking the plant based burger (how much oil, how much time, etc.) so you're gonna do a worse job the first time cooking than a restaurant.
Also, it matters which restaurant you go to. The plant-based burgers have to be cooked correctly to taste the same as beef.
So Umami Burger - it's a religious experience. $18 for a burger (yikes) but it tastes like the best burger you've ever had.
I've also had Impossible Burger at a stadium counter where it tasted plain and crappy.
So I'd advise going somewhere proper to try.
Impossible Burger - Umami, White Caste, Fat Burger. Beyond Meat - Jack in the Box.
IMHO good meat (or plant based meat) should taste good regardless of whether it was prepared at home, at a food cart or a 5 star restaurant.
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Interesting read for anyone interested in this topic. It's WSJ so there will most likely be a paywall.
Lab-Grown Meat Is Coming, but the Price Is Hard to Stomach
For those who can't bypass the paywall here are some excerpts:
*"The Tesla of the dinner plate: Cultivating tuna and beef from animal cells costs thousands of dollars a pound, so producers are pitching the products as luxury goods"
"Mr. Selden and other makers of cultured meat, such as Memphis Meats, New Age Meats and Aleph Farms, face several barriers to bringing their food to consumers. First, it’s not yet clear whether customers will eat—much less pay for—meat that’s grown from cells rather than reared on a farm. Second, cultured meat is vastly more expensive than conventional meat to produce. It costs Finless slightly less than $4,000 to make a pound of tuna—about 20% the price of gold. Prices for conventional tuna vary, but Browne Trading, a Portland, Maine-based fish supplier, buys line-caught bluefin for $8 to $12 a pound and sells it to restaurants for $19 a pound."
"Mr. Selden hopes that when the company produces the fish at scale, it will be in line with costs for conventional bluefin, though he declined to say how much he wants to charge for the product. Finless has cut the expense from its 2017 prototype, which ran to $19,000 a pound."
"Last year, Aleph revealed that it had produced the world’s first lab-grown steak, a thin strip of meat that cost $50 to produce. Mr. Toubia said the company’s steaks could be sold in restaurants as early as 2021 and in retail stores by 2023. He plans to drop prices as production costs go down, but not considerably. “There’s no reason we shouldn’t feel comfortable selling our products at a certain premium,” he said."
"The Future Market dreamt up two concepts—faux shark-fin soup for $88.88 a bottle and a cultured wagyu beef steak for $57.99—to illustrate where products and pricing could go. “In a decade or so, lab-grown meat isn’t necessarily going to have to command a premium because it’ll be as cheap and efficient as any other method, even more efficient,” Mr. Lee said."*
So the most probable outcome is it will most likely become cheaper to produce, but litigation, regulation, and more competitors entering the market place pose a risk to Beyond Meat long-term. Tyson will eventually enter the market with their own line of lab meat if it becomes popular.
If consumers love lab meat the biggest competitive advantage I see is the potential to have a longer shelf life advantage compared to natural meat products. However, it does seem strange with consumers wanting more organic/natural/authentic products that they would substitute the real thing with a meat product made by a guy whose probably never stepped foot on a farm in his entire life.
Lab grown meat is the only way for all of humanity to eventually enjoy the life of a first world citizen. It’s also the only way humanity will ever be able to colonize space. Lab grown meat as a fully viable alternative is as inevitable as autonomous cars, and no amount of regulation will prevent its ultimate success. All regulation and market skepticism will do is delay full acceptance of the product.
But that's not what Beyond Meat does right? I thought it was primarily focused on plant based meat... Who are the leaders in the lab grown meat space?
I'd say it's still debatable whether plant-based meat or clean meat will win. But we'll see.... Probably room for both in the marketplace
Right now, some clean-meat companies are delivering product at $30/lb to consumers. That's still too high. But take a look at how fast the prices are dropping. I predict we'll get clean meat to $3/lb in next 18-24 months.
This is a huge milestone for the plant based industry and really shows how far veganism has come. As much as you don't like vegans, it is the only logical way to move forward until we can create lab cultured meat cheaply.
Veganism is growing rapidly, true. But the real target is omnivores. 94% of the buyers of Impossible Burger are omnivores. You can't depend on the vegan market to build a company. Vegans are too much of a small minority. What you CAN depend on is that if you can give omnivores (a much bigger market segment, clearly) options that are more ethical, environmental they will buy those, so long as the price and taste are similar to what they would eat normally in meat.
Most vegans used to be omnivores, including myself. BYND is indeed targeting omnivores who will eventually see the bigger picture.
It's already massively overpriced.
Beyond Meat will do great among vegans and vegetarians because those are willing to pay more for their food anyway, my sister is vegan I see what she eats all the time.
However, I think the IPO boom reflects a growing disconnect between the wealthy elite (aka investors) and the real world. The reasoning behind it is that consumers will massively change their habits to fight climate change, thus making Beyond Meat the top provider and a top pick to get early in. It's not going to happen any time soon.
It'll have a terrific ride for a few years as long as market exuberance keeps going, so it's a good trade to be in. Long term investment? Nah.
One thing I'm skeptical about vegan food in general is the fact that allergies are common and soy based food tends to be one of the most triggering.
94% of the purchasers of Impossible Burger are omnivores. 94%!!! (cite company studies) Vegans aren't the target market. Vegans are happy to eat veggies. The overwhelming purchasers are omnivores / vegetarians who are looking to eat more responsibly, so long as the taste and price is the same. The Impossible Burger is so close to meat in taste that most eaters cant' tell the difference. So they buy Impossible because.... well if you can get the same meaty taste without destroying the planet and killing an animal, why WOULDN'T you???
You are incredibly invested in this, aren't you?
Either way, can you give me a link? One thing I'm suspicious about what you said is that it includes ''vegetarians'' or other people who have a limited or no meat diet anyway.
To be more clear, I want to know what's the percentage of their consumer base that used to eat normally before they entered the market.
Another doubt I have is that a lot of people like to eat as naturally as possible thus avoid lab stuff.
I would be too, but that's not Beyond's target. 94% of Impossible's sales are to flexitarians / omnivores. People broadly like the taste, and want to eat more ethically.
VEGANS ARE NOT THE TARGET MARKET
Does anybody here knows about their distribution capabilities and ability to scale? The only thing I know is they HQ in El Segundo CA is quite small and there're still plenty of market share to take away from other players in the space that produce terrible animal protein alternative. Not going to put any money in until I see them reducing the cost of producing substantially and show that they are able to innovate beyond ground meat.
Both Beyond and Impossible are sold worldwide already. They continue to expand globally. Both have demand vastly outstripping supply, which is a testament to how much the demand fro responsible foods is growing.
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