Bezos throws a Hail Mary

MARKETS

• U.S. markets: After another major sell-off (and the Dow and S&P turning negative for the year), stocks need as much of a break as you do.
• Energy: Look out below. U.S. oil prices sank to their lowest level in over a year.
• Economic hot take of the day: "Recession is so far in the distance I can't see it."—Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council

RETAIL

What’s Behind the Retail Slump

Major retailers were swallowed in a stock market sinkhole just days before the biggest shopping event of the year, which happens to kick off the biggest shopping season of the year.

• Target (-10.52%) reported comparable sales growth of 5.1% in Q3. And in even better news, online sales jumped 49%. But here's the issue: profit margins
• Kohl's (-9.23%) beat expectations but offered guidance that failed to impress.
• TJX (-4.39%), the parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, also gave disappointing profit expectations for the next quarter.

This wasn't supposed to happen

A strong economy has added jet fuel to retailers' top lines, and investors have rewarded them.

• As of Monday, Kohl's shares were up 60% in the past 12 months.
• Overall, gains in retail stocks have doubled the broader market this year, per Bloomberg. Amazon doesn't appear to be quite the existential threat it used to be.

You knew this part was coming next. The "but..." In order to compete with Amazon (and each other), big box retailers have invested heavily in modernizing their operations. That spending has spooked investors, who are also concerned about the effects of a trade war and any possible downturn in the economy.

But what's so expensive?

Labor: A miniscule unemployment rate (3.7%) has retailers hunting for workers. Amazon upped its minimum wage to $15/hr, which is pressuring competitors to match.

E-commerce/logistics: Target sets a good example of just how many resources it takes to turn your brick-and-mortar business into a serious online shopping contender. It's spending $7 billion over three years on revamping operations, which includes overhauling the backrooms of 1,400 stores that ship online orders. Because that's what it takes to offer free, two-day delivery.

One final thought to leave you with: This holiday season, consumers will spend 4.1% more than last year, per the National Retail Federation.

MEDIA

Amazon Wants to Get in on Your Thanksgiving Football Game

Jeff Bezos must have really enjoyed the Chiefs/Rams shootout Monday night, because Amazon (-1.11%) is reportedly bidding for 22 Fox regional sports networks (RSNs), per CNBC.

Remember: These are the networks that Disney must divest as part of its acquisition of 21st Century Fox's media/film assets (Disney's ownership of ESPN raised the red flag at the DOJ).

• Perhaps the crown jewel of these RSNs is NYC's YES Network. The New York Yankees (which already owns 20% of YES) and an "unknown sovereign wealth fund" are both reportedly in the running to acquire the network.
• Collectively, the 22 networks are valued at about $20 billion.

To be sure, Bezos isn't the only horse in this race. Other bidders include PE giants Apollo Global Management, KKR, and Blackstone, as well as Sinclair Broadcast Group and Tegna.

Bottom line, courtesy of Deadline: "RSNs are considered beachfront property in media given the ongoing demand for live sports." Not content with just its Thursday Night Football deal, Amazon wants a piece.

TRAVEL

Thanksgiving Travel: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The Good

Gasoline prices are going to be at their lowest in nearly a year. The average pump price for a gallon of regular gas this week? $2.62, down seven cents from last week and coming off the biggest one-week drop this year.

• Remember: Crude oil prices tanked 20% from October to mid-November on concerns of oversupply.

The Bad

AAA estimates that 54.3 million Americans will travel 50+ miles away from home this Thanksgiving. That's 4.8% more travelers than last year, and the highest volume of drivers since 2005.

The Ugly

If you didn't know, Google is good at data.

Of the three busiest travel days this year, only one has been crossed off the calendar so far.

1. Sunday, Nov. 25
2. Wednesday, Nov. 20
3. Friday, Nov. 16

Our advice? Finish the Brew, put your coffee in a "to go" cup, and hit the road if you can.

FOOD

Campbell Soup Scores in the Bottom of the 9th

Nothing like getting a hit with the bases loaded and two outs. The sponsor of every sick day you've ever had, Campbell Soup (+5.46%), reported revenue and profit that topped expectations ahead of one very important shareholder vote next week.

Campbell has been fending off activist investor Dan Loeb and his firm, Third Point, for months. And on Nov. 29, shareholders are taking the proxy battle to a vote.

The insurgents want a new Campbell board, but Campbell thinks it's already got the recipe for a turnaround...which includes sales of its fresh food/international snacks businesses.

• Campbell said yesterday there's been strong interest from potential buyers since it started shopping the units in
• One of those possible buyers? Mondelez, which is reportedly working with Morgan Stanley to study a play for Campbell's brands Arnott's Biscuits and Kelsen Group.

So what's ahead for Campbell? It reaffirmed earlier forecasts, but added fiscal 2019 will be a "transition year." We'll find out just how big of a transition that is in eight days.

INTERNATIONAL

Around the World in 175 Words

Want to show your Thanksgiving dinner table you're "worldly"? Memorizing this section is a good start.

In Saudi Arabia...

President Trump said the U.S. will stand with Saudi Arabia despite its involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

In a statement, Trump said, "we may never know all the facts surrounding" Khashoggi's death. FYI, WaPo reported the CIA determined Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi's killing. And FYI (x2), Saudi Arabia is the biggest customer for U.S. weapons.

In France...

Things at automaker Renault are still in limbo following the arrest of CEO Carlos Ghosn.

• Renault COO Thierry Bollore will take over Ghosn's day-to-day duties.
• Ghosn had also reportedly been planning a merger between Renault and Nissan before his arrest...but Nissan's board opposed it.

In London....

They're getting Taco Bell (see? It's not all bad today). The city has been one of Taco Bell's most-requested destinations for international expansion.

And to get Londoners hungry for Crunchwrap Supremes, Taco Bell recreated Big Ben's chimes...using audio from its own iconic bells.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

• Walgreens and Humana are reportedly in early stage talks to take equity stakes in one another, per the WSJ.
• Elon Musk has renamed SpaceX's "Big Falcon Rocket" as the "Starship."
• Boeing stock dipped 1% after the company canceled a planned conference call with airlines regarding safety of the 737 MAX (the model that crashed in
• Walmart (-2.74%) has asked Rep. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) to return a donation it made to her campaign after comments she made about attending a hypothetical "public hanging."
• Condé Nast is ending regular print publication of Glamour magazine.
• Bain and KKR have each pledged $10 million toward a severance fund for former Toys "R" Us workers who lost their jobs when the retailer went bankrupt.

BREAKROOM

Guess the (Fictional) Logo
This company played a central role in a famous TV show. Can you identify it?

(Answer located at bottom of newsletter)

Breakroom Answers