Controversial

This forum is full of stupid trump supporters so this probably won't sit well with the losers here but YEAAA #bidenHarris2020

 

I am not the biggest fan either but he's the lesser of two evils. Most elections are not about political idealism but just voting for the candidate who's better of the two. I hate that piece of shit currently in the white house. I didn't vote for him in 2016 or this year. He needs to get the fuck out. 

 

It's much closer than the polls suggest from what I hear, but even if you took the polls at face value in order for 350 to come true Biden would have to win AZ, Florida, Georgia, NC, PA, MI, WI. The chances of Biden winning all of those states seems very low. Most of those states are neck and neck. 

 

Put your money where your mouth is, how much are you willing to bet?

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

I'm a centrist and am voting for Biden just cause I can't put up with another four years of this bullshit - but I hope we get a center-right Republican party again and not this crap that Trump shat on.

 

I hope everyone gets as confident in Biden as they were in Hillary. So that when the big mean orange guy wins, all of their minds melt again 

 

I was on a college campus and you would've thought there was a terror attack. People walking around literally on the verge of tears

 

As a conservative/libertarian, I'm really not that upset about it. 

2024 looks really great for Republicans. Biden is inheriting covid which is not going to be great no matter who is president. So, this is gonna be a tough 4 years for him.  Then, who runs in 2024? Biden will be basically a fossil by then if he is even alive. Kamala is really unlikeable, and the Republicans may finally get a normal non-Trump candidate (fingers crossed).

In the long run, I would rather Trump lose this election and we get a Republican from 2024 - 2032 than Trump win and then 100% get a Democrat 2024 -2032.

 

If FIT and state in places like NY math out to 60% or more (likely) and cap gains skyrocket as well this will bode very well for republicans in 2024. I think raising corporate in the current environment will be a detriment to the economy, maybe not by as much as people think given their effective may be relatively similar. This one isn't over yet, but this isn't an ideal time to become president. I think the media will do what they can to act like COVID is going swimmingly from Jan on for Biden, but I mean it is not a great situation.

 

Polls are wrong again. Just wait and then we can discuss outcomes.

People that permanently dismissed polls as useless are gonna have a tough time next week. 
 

Final polls had Hillary + 3, and she ended at +2.1. Were currently in Biden + 8 territory.

The 2016 race tightened in the last week due to Comey, which has not happened this time. This is a major reason everyone thinks the polls were wrong. The polls moved late, but no one noticed. 
 

3 of the last 4 polling “errors” undercounted Dem support, not GOP. Just as likely we end up with Biden + 10 and a bloodbath across the country. 

Yes, a few state polls were pretty far off last time. Pollsters have now adjusted for education, and there are very few states in Biden’s column that sit within the polling margin of error, thus greatly reducing the chance we end up with another 2016 Wisconsin polling situation. 

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."
 

I hope the OP is right but I have a feeling the outcome will be partly decided by the courts.  Trump is probably going to sue several states to change the outcome.  Biden may have to get the support of the military to get this guy out of office.  45 will be remembered as the worst president in the history of the United States, and we have had some bad ones. This POTUS could not possibly care less about the US and its citizens. This POTUS has one interest and that is himself.  He had alienated our allies and befriended our enemies.  He has stoked racial tensions at every turn.  He has trashed the military brass and our medical experts who are tying to help us get through this pandemic.  What a mess.

 

Honestly I agree 100% - I want to get back to the days of having honest policy debates with my fellow Americans who I respect. The corrupt anti-democracy bullshit Trump is pulling needs to be stopped. Doesn't matter what your policy views are. If you love democracy you have to vote this fucker out.

 

Those days are looooong gone. Pop culture is very anti-republican. People are ascribing it to Trump but the same thing will happen with any remotely conservative nominee for the rest of time.

 

Not a MAGA guy but definitely would echo the sentiment that it's going to be a lot closer than what most polls are saying. I'll just list a couple of things that both candidates have going for them.

Biden:

Leads Trump in key voter groups. (Independents, third party voters, seniors, surburban voters) He beat Hillary in at least three of these categories last time, so it's significant.

Judging from early voting, looks like there will be historic voter turnout and strong youth vote. Obviously does not bode well for Republicans

Trump:

Massive enthusiasm advantage. It's obvious which base is more energized by their candidate. I think once again polls are not gauging Trump's support in swing states accurately.

Newly registered voter numbers in some battleground states are in his favor. They've outregistered Dems in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina - all states that Trump won, so Biden has to overcome newly registered gap + the totals that Trump won by last time. (IBD estimation is ~7% of Trump supporters now support Biden and 2% who supported Hillary are now Trump supporters) Dems have made inroads in closing the gap in registration in states like AZ & IA though so may be interesting.

Possible early vote cannibalization of Dems vote? Per Gallup, "62% percent of Democratic registered voters plan to vote early..., compared with 28% of Republican voters." It's evident early on that Dems really showed up early, but they are already shredding Biden's lead in NC, FL, AZ, are IA. IBD is saying 44% (looks like a high estimate to me) of  registered voters have already cast ballots, including 58% of Biden voters and 31% of Trump supporters. 

Bottom line: Expect some close calls in the battleground states by election day. Won't make too many predictions but I don't think Texas is in play for Dems and I'm inclined to think Florida goes to Trump. By the looks of it, PA is the most important state - 538 says if Biden loses PA, there's only a 30% chance of him winning the EC while a PA loss for Trump gives him a 2% chance.

 

I'm in NYC, I can't "feel" anything but Biden.

But I can see literally EVERY shop on Atlantic Avenue boarding up their stores.  Police have been telling business to be closed that day(a buddy owns a liquor store in the Village).  I wonder who they are protecting their stores from....must be that HUGE conservative base in NYC who riots.

I'm in real estate, so the democratic state senate and mayoral office have shit the bed...policy wise.

But, as long as 1000 genders, equity(not equality which I'm for), fiscal irresponsibility, safe spaces, anti-free speech, Anti-fa, as long as they exist I'm voting red....and I'm a moderate.  I actually think we have to raise taxes.

 

Never ceases to amaze me how folks on this forum are simultaneously obsessed with prestige, acting alpha, and the upper echelons of society, and then go and support the unrefined, insecure betamale bird-brain that's currently in office.

Actually, it makes perfect sense: he's the walking caricature of everything they wish they could be. A winner without all the effort and toil. A hit with the ladies, without an ounce of tenderness. The smartest person in the room, without ever having read a book. A king among men, born with a silver spoon. Stick it to the losers and haters, right guys?

Biden's an old fart and Kamala is just a shinier and more palatable Hillary. No shit, sherlock. But to act like this is just "the lesser of two evils" doesn't do justice to the massive political and psychological chasm between the two sides. This is bigger than gender pronouns, BLM, and safe spaces. Grow up, buy a sports car, get your dick sucked, do whatever it takes to find your manhood, I don't care.... just don't take it out on your country. Lives are on the line.

 

AllStateRap

Never ceases to amaze me how folks on this forum are simultaneously obsessed with prestige, acting alpha, and the upper echelons of society, and then go and support the unrefined, insecure betamale bird-brain that's currently in office.

Ding Ding Ding. In their defense, half of the WSO Trump crowd is a bunch of 18 year olds that will be deeply embarrassed they ever supported this man when they look back in ten years. 

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."
 

Banking is probably the heartbeat of capitalism.....don't think that WSO leaning toward Trump has anything to do with 18-year olds and has more to do with people on here understanding that inching toward socialism is not great.

I doubt we actually have many people on here who are hard-core Trump, but we have a lot of people who are hard-core anti-Socialism which at the current moment is forcing them to side with Trump.

 

I think Biden will win PA, WI, MI (and therefore the WH). This will be a very close election, If Biden wins more than 330 EV I'll be surprised.

I just don't see him winning Florida. HRC polled better with Latinos and still managed to lose. Not to mention huge immigration from South America the last decade. South Americans came to the US primarily to flee taxes and/or socialist regimes, and tend to favor Republicans. They overall are a very similar voting block to Cubans. This was why many had Bloomberg as one of the few Dems that could likely carry FL.

Biden will win PA due to higher enthusiasm from AA and "hometown factor" in NEPA. I don't see a reason why he will do worse in any aspect than HRC.

 

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