How would one go about modelling this based on public filings for a single-asset producer with ~100 operating wells and no public detail on each individually? All I know (or at least, all I think I know) is the current overall corporate decline rate and a general idea of the decline rate for any newly drilled well.
Note I am not an O&G guy.
Bump?
I don't know if you need a type curve for this but see if you can get access to HPDI or a similar service that can you give you historical production for operators in the area.
I was able to build an individual well type curve that fit the Company's estimates based on equity research and investor presentations; however, I have no idea how many wells are at what stage of production. Or should I treat the overall company as a single well (eg if I know next year's corporate decline is 40pct and a typical individual well is 40/20/15/10 then I'd model year 2 corporate decline of 20pct, then 15, etc...)
That might be the best way if you have no other information. I think mgmt would be the only ones to know that kind of granularity
@rufiolove ? you're an O&G guy, right?
I've typically seen a company's existing production treated as one well and future production based on a drilling schedule and type curves similar to the surrounding area if there is no public or long-term single well data available.
Yeah, as @Nabooru mentioned, you could put together the PDP decline rate and apply that to existing PDP production. For future development (i.e. PUD locations and Probable / Possible locations) you would want to get as granular as possible, using multiple type curves if necessary based on variance in geology, geography, any basin level detail you would have. This would allow you to construct a production waterfall. If you wanted to do a full blowdown NAV, you would just need to run out all wells through their economic life.
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