Current career focus is in multi family based in Southern California. But with eviction moratoriums, rent control, and other regulatory burdens on the rise in CA, I want to gauge people’s opinion on what other CRE investment opportunities, development niches, and asset types (ex: industrial) might still “be good” for CA.
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All I will say is - even though it gets tougher and tougher to do anything here, there is a reason why professionals can make a lot of money. Figuring out how to make it work is valuable especially as you specialize during your career. All of the institutional guys want to be here or have allocations here. My guess is that we are transitioning to what will basically become a haven for coastal elites/big money earners/execs and then on the other side of the spectrum low income/welfare/UBI type customer base. The middle ground is disappearing or it will churn more as people figure out if they can stay long term or move out of state before they settle down. And I am not talking about Fresno or Bakersfield, Class A locations only. Industrial is a good place to be for sure. There is a reason SoCal is the biggest industrial market in the Country.
Counterpoint: Industrial, more than any other sector, is purely driven by the mechanical profit/loss equation. If cost fundamentally rise to the point that they can't make a reasonable profit then that business will move elsewhere. I understand that SoCal has natural logistical advantages that make it a prime spot for shipping/industrial, but it's still fundamentally driven by that profit/loss equation and that advantage has been narrowing for years. Without a change in the downward trajectory of profits/relative to expenses, and exodus will continue, if not accelerate.
There are certainly still deals to be had and money to make, but the transition from a seller's market to a buyer's market is tough, and can drag on for decades without proper regulatory reform. Just ask the rust belt how long natural logistical advantages last to spur on economic prosperity.
Interesting... any opinions on other property types in CA?
I'm curious as to why you think the Rust Belt had natural logistical advantages. For the most part, that was never the case.
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