Capital gains tax hike
Seeing no discussion of the tax hike on here and I'm surprised. If it goes through, it's gonna be very ugly for this board -- layoffs, leaving the industry, etc.
First order approximation, carry pool will decrease by 25% & junior salaries will decrease by more than that.
But it's not just carried interest that is taxed at capital gains -- it's also the LPs that are going to have to pay an extra 20%. That's going to have ripple effects. You will see outflows from US investment managers.
Fortunately, some LPs are tax exempt, but many are not. So you will see smaller AUM pools, again leading to lower management fees, leaner teams, etc.
Obviously, materially no one here is going to starve, but you have to marvel at the stupidity for the US economy -- will lower economically beneficial long term investment in technology for example and incentivize selfish spending on yachts etc. by ultra rich. Not to mention distortions in the markets like being locked into investments to avoid cap gains tax. You will see more Teslas and bitcoin bubbles. Yuck.
I'm not even a conservative. To the extent that inequality is a priority, it can be solved in less distortionary ways like a global wealth tax.