Case study- hotel underwriting model?
Hi,
I came here to request help with a case study that I'm working on.
I have to evaluate a potential hotel acquisition using an underwriting model (cash flows, P&L projections, equity multiple) and write a report summarizing my findings and recommendation. I'm a philosophy major but I'm trying my best to break into the real estate industry, so bear with me.
I've been given 9 years of STR reports, a summary of the renovation project, and some accounting statements.
I've never done anything like this so I'm having a bit of trouble with the specifics. I downloaded an underwriting model but I'm not sure whether or not I should use it, or construct my own. If so....how the hell do I do that?
There are also some specifics I'm not sure about:
1. Projecting occupancy rate
How do I project the future occupancy rate? I tried to use calculation methods from alternaty (not allowed to post link) but I don't see the competition level in the reports, and I'm not sure how to find it. In terms of the pipeline, I also don't know if I should be using the properties under construction only (it's a 5 year projection) or all of the properties. I also don't know if it's reasonable to use the year to date/running 12 month percent changes. It doesn't seem like it, but how else would I project future percent changes? We run into the same issue when I try to make a table for accommodated and unaccommodated demand by segment.
I could just take the average of the occupancy rates over the past 9 years. I could also use this year's only, and make models with different ballpark figures that are slightly higher and lower. Is this too simple?
-
Cap Rate
I know cap rate is NOI/property asset value, but in the statements I've only been given EBITDA. What is the relationship between this and net operating income? What about gross operating profit? -
Exit Cap Rate Growth Per Year
How do I find this from the STR reports? -
Acquisition Cost (%)/Lender Fees
Should I assume these are 0 if I can't find them? -
IRR Hurdles
Can someone explain these? -
The report in general
What information is relevant to the acquisition decision? I know that occupancy percentages, REVPar, segmented demand, competition, IRR, ADR, and equity multiple are important, but in what capacity? Are there cutoffs I should be evaluating the figures against? Is there a standardized acquisition report format, or should I draft one of my own accord?
I know these are a lot of questions, and you don't have to answer most of them if you don't have time, but overall I'm just trying to figure out how to tackle this. My main confusions, if you can only answer a few things, are
- How to find cap rate with only EBITDA
- How to project occupancy rate (or whether I need to) from STR reports
- How to find and analyze IRR & equity multiple
- What aspects of these findings need to be represented in the report, and how they factor into the acquisition decision.
If anyone has a link to an underwriting model or sample report that represents the protocol in this industry, that'd be really great as well.
Thanks so much for your time, and have a lovely evening!
PM me - I'd be happy to help...
Yeah leave acquisition and financing costs at zero because the case study doesn’t lay out an exact number on what % they are...
EBITDA is a toughie. How could anyone figure out what that means or how it relates to NOI... so confusing
Yeah it's weird. I finally got the model done. Thanks for answering!
for #1, you should take a look at the STR report and find what's the current RevPAR index. Also, the majority of the hotels require a PIP (renovation) after the sales transaction. We usually use T12 as a base and grow all the expenses based on that.
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