Chances of Trump being Convicted?

It seems like half a dozen GOP representatives and several GOP senators including Romney, Collins, Murkowki, Sasse, and Toomey believe that Trump should be impeached. Reports are that McConnell is on the fence, and if McConnell votes yes, the Senate will meet the 67 votes. 

It appears like they thinking about doing this even with only a week left:

1) to barr him from running from office in 2024 and purge Trumpism from the GOP

2) establish a precedent that there will be zero tolerance of a chief executive in the future who summons a mob in DC to disrupt the constitutional process of Congress certifying the election 

3) actually take this threat seriously now since they were seconds away from being face to face and surrounded by rioters with zip ties, baseball bats, and nooses

Comments (22)

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

Some MAGA rioters are saying they received help from 3 GOP congressmen (Gozer, Biggs, and Books), if true and linked to Trump, that could be enough.

 
Most Helpful
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

Geriatric Hypeman Rudy G calling for a "trial by combat" immediately following trumps remarks about "taking your contry back with strength" and a "fraudlent electrion process"? Trump did not literally call for violence but if you have more than two brain cells to rub together you can see he was stoking the flames. IMO the letter of the law is pretty broad in this "Whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."  

 

Array
  • 6
 
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

This site is increasingly occupied by a significant amount of breitbartian, MAGA devotees. I think this will be one of my last posts as I have little interest in providing color or advice or just participating in what's becoming a more dangerous commentariat.  We aren't talking about your frat's rights to engage in "Old South" and act like you are still running shit in this country, it's just a little bit bigger than that...

Over 4 years of disinformation and poison have broken many in this country down and they've been reprogrammed to protect the orange leader at all costs. They are unable to discern facts from fiction, the same fiction I'm seeing posted on this site by so called "educated" individuals.   If you don't think Trump, Rudy and Trump's kids rhetoric incited thousands in MAGA gear to beat and kill police, potentially kill the VP and others, then the level headed individuals on this site cannot explain this basic matter to you. Many of you are likely too young to understand the danger the republic is in because of 45s refusal to accept his loss.  More data is coming out and as the FBI said, it will be pretty shocking to some of you...guess the FBI is also just Fake news though...

I wont waste my time but you think the president constantly shouting that the election was stolen, making an increasingly agitated group of whites who feel victimized feel they must take back "their" country, while  even trying to strong arm republicans to find votes etc and commit fraud - if you think that doesn't set the stage for a potential insurrection then you should also believe everything management teams tell you. 

Good luck folks and no need to respond, I won't waste my time reading. 

 
  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Comm
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

I think the real issue is his constant attempts to undermine the democratic process. He called the election theft many times. Losing an election and trying to void an election is a very dangerous precedent. 

 
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

I would say that demanding the Georgia Secretary of State and Attorney General to find him 11,780 more votes and arguably threatening them is a crime. Imagine if the GA Sec. of State wasn't a moderate Republican and didn't stand up to Trump. Both of them would immediately be charged with fraud and trying to for manipulating the numbers.

 
  • Developer in RE - Comm
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

It's not clear who these Republicans think is their contituency. Trump is more popular among the Republican base than they are, so they don't have the power to "purge Trumpism from the GOP", even if they and many GOP pundits wish they did.

Making Trump a martyr in the eyes of his base is not going to do the establishment GOP any favors. Look how he treated Jeff Sessions when he thought Sessions betrayed him: he went on a scorched earth campaign against Sessions, a longtime popular AL incumbent, and helped his newcomer primary opponent win the nomination. Even if Trump's stature is permanently diminished going forward, he'll retain more than enough influence to swing House and Senate primary races by campaigning for his preferred candidate.

The smartest strategy for the establishment left and right would be to diffuse the situation by letting Trump limp out of office in a week. But they seem to be operating on pure emotion at this point.

 
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

I think the Republicans would be smart to pander to Trump's base, as they're willing to go down with him and will turn on any GOP politician who votes to convict him. The Democrats would be smart to pursue impeachment and prevent him from running for office again, as this would probably divide the right-wing voter base.

I'm ambivalent about Trump, but it probably won't be a difficult case to prove that Trump's constant attacks on the integrity of the election and urging his voters to "stop the steal", combined with his incendiary speech in January 6th, was a large motivator for his supporters attacking the Capitol building. Multiple sources are reporting that he was refusing to speak out to stop the violence because he was busy watching it unfold on TV, and he had to be pushed into tweeting them to eventually stop (and apparently it took extra effort from his aides to convince him to use the words "peacefully"). The cause and effect of Trump's messaging and his supporters' march in the Capitol are fairly apparent, and prosecutors wouldn't need him to literally say "I order you to attack the Capitol" in order to find him responsible for incitement. Essentially, but for Trump's constant claims about election fraud and forcing Congress and electors to "stop the steal", it's very, very unlikely his supporters would have stormed the Capitol.

Also, impeachment is largely a political exercise, so if he's lost the faith of the Republican establishment, he's done.

 
Jan 13, 2021 - 11:28am

McConnell refused the Senate's emergency return, so the earliest they could vote is literally day before Biden's Inaug. If he gets convicted then I will literally laugh my ass off as that is the most ridiculous shit ever.

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