from the Economist Spheres of influence
A NEW book, discussed in this week's Economics focus, by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that China’s economic might will overshadow America’s sooner than people think.By 2030 China’s share of global economic power will match America’s in the 1970s and Britain’s a century before. Three forces will dictate China’s rise, Mr Subramanian argues: demography, convergence and “gravity”. Since China has over four times America’s population, it only has to produce a quarter of America’s output per head to exceed America’s total output. Indeed, Mr Subramanian thinks China is already the world’s biggest economy, when due account is taken of the low prices charged for many local Chinese goods and services outside its cities. China will be equally dominant in trade, accounting for twice America’s share of imports and exports.
Is the economic threat of China just a trendy fear tactic to sell books / get blog reads? Or is China's economic power truly going to change the world, overtake the US, and soon? I've lived there... the government/ bureaucracy/system/economy seem to be a mess when actually talking to the people and seeing it take place first hand, and not to mention some of China's economic/financial prowess is a facade imo (Shanghai), but they still are 1.3bil+ people, with a HUGE middle class, and nonetheless an extreme force to be reckoned with. Personally - am I considering living another year in China to develop more business contacts/network? Yes. Would I have my kids learn Mandarin? Yes, but am I shaking in my boots? no.
When I was growing up in Miami, my mom was a private teacher at an small exlusive day care where most of the clients came from Fisher Island (look it up). Those wealthy caucasians and hispanics had hired chinese nationals with prestigious academic training in linguistics and the like to teach their pre-k kids mandarin co-currently with English. And this was what-- a little more than a decade ago.
I'm not an expert, but I think peterson's analysis is usually on the right-track so this worries me haha.
China will be the dominant force very soon. This isn't some made up bullshit, it's reality. We will become the SECOND country. It's sad but it was bound to happen sooner or later. Might as well man up to this fact and start grinding. India still has problems but give them 20-30 years and they'll be knocking at the door as well...
I can almost hear China whispering to us..."step ya game up pimp"
I will never understand the concern about America's economic position compared to another countries. Does someone in Japan wake up every morning and express outrage/fear at the fact that their countries economic position was eclipsed by China's? Do you think the Danes,Brits, Spaniards, etc cared when there gross output was eclipsed by another country?
Americans approach a point of jingoism. I had an interesting debate with someone in Boston a month or so ago about China. I said that Chinese rise would be great for the US since a significant portion our countries exports are complex machinery and even more complex electronics. The fine, but delusional fellow said "WE ARE NUMBER ONE", and once China becomes more powerful the world will end.
I completely agree. If China does exceed the US as a superpower, do you know what will happen? There will be two superpowers rather then one. American economists and any other people who comment on the topic have the insecurities of a fat kid.
China is overdone
China's cool...but too many sino-forests.
+1 for being a realist.
I think the biggest problem for China will be dealing with the side-effects when its currency appreciates. They will either have to be able to produce high quality, highly-specialized goods, or they will have to have extremely efficient corporations that will be able to offset increased variable costs in ways other than cost of the products they sell. China does not posess either capability at the moment.
You believe anything this leftist/communist magazine tells you? Boy, you better get your sources straight. Otherwise, the only thing you will be doing in a front office; is shinning shoes.
obviously not because I'm being critical and asking you monkeys in the forum! wow "leftist/communist" ?! that's a whole new forum thread altogether, wanna start it in the forum? "Is the Economist leftist/communist?"
A few facts that aren't recited often about China.
30% of China smokes.
There are 250 million ghosts in China (unofficial citizens who aren't on the census, because of the 1 child policy).
There are 80 million more men than women, because of the same policy.
These social issues will have a huge impact on the country in the near future. Assume 2 billion people. 600 million of them smoke (these people are by definition in the working age bracket, or are retired). According to a european 2006 survey into smoking, 25 of men and 19% of heavy smokers (5+ a day), will develop lung cancer (not accounting for other cancers or respiratory infections).
Imagine the population the UK and the Netherlands combined all being male, and it not being possible at all to get married, (or most likely, a girlfriend for most of your life. All because of your country's policy. You going to take it sitting down, develop feelings towards your fellow man?
Impossible to quantify these impacts, but its a ticking time bomb and a half...
China is already a dominant force in the world. If you come here, you will feel it. There's nothing like it anywhere else in the world.
can you give some examples of how one would "feel it" ? just curious - what city are you in and what do you do there?
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