Over the past few weeks, I have been attempting to research how consumer behavior will be effected after lockdown has been lifted and we are back to what some would like to call the "new normal". Unfortunately, there hasn't been relatable events in the past to this type of "lockdown" and freeze of the worlds economy. This brings me to the question, how will consumer behavior change over the course of the next 1-2 years?
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I think in the near future when the economy opens back up, retail and consumer shopping will be drastically down. I think this whole coronavirus ordeal has really made people aware of just how much money they spend going out to eat, bars, clothes, vacation, etc. Not to say that its not worth it, but even once everyone goes back to "normal" I cant see people rushing out to spend money on consumer goods like before.
Would be interested to see how retail stores do in the next 1-2 years. I could see this putting the nail in the coffin for alot of already struggling shops (Macy's , J.Crew, Bed Bath, etc)
Unless there is some kind of government support or a vaccine is developed very soon, I think many of the clothing retailers will go bankrupt, especially retailers with lots of physical stores.
It won't be back to normal, that's the thing. This social distancing thing is likely to weave its way into everyday life. I was listening to CNBC this morning and they were saying that pre-virus life will be just that, in the past. Going forward, the way we live our lives will be drastically different, and while I can't speak to exactly what, I do agree. Sure will be interesting to watch everything unfold.
People in regular America are broke. They won't be shopping for new clothes, a new car, or a house. They need to pay the bills and the $1200 check didn't do shit for them. These people hold our country together and they are the ones struggling the most. What really should be asked is how are these regular Americans going to cope and survive what's going to happen to the economy. As it was in 2008, they will be hit the hardest.
I think people are going to be weary of hanging out in dingy places. I think clean Class A establishments (restaurants, stores, offices) will be fine, but people may shy away from the gnarlier places under the impression that it is no longer clean or healthy.
I guess I’m a little pessimistic, people historically have learned the lasting effects of very slowly and I don’t envision it having nearly as much as a lasting effect as some others may think. I’m not expecting a massive boom by any means, but if I had to bet I’d still say there’s going to be a seemingly high level of physical activity. However, now that people in general are more aware, hopefully this is a time to affect policy a bit more for the better so ideally I’m proved wrong.
WFH and related technologies will thrive, even after Covid. Even more time spent with and through technology, more laptops, more virtual events, digital birthdays like they are happening atm etc - Generally, people will spend more time for stuff they need in their homes. More gardening, pets, plants, gaming gadgets, screens, coffee machines and tea, better furniture and accessories for the home.
WeWork and other co-working/event places I think they will drastically cut back or just die. A place where everyone shares a kitchen or touches every table/chair on a floor just won't fly these days. (we have already cancelled most of our WeWork contracts).
AirBnB and anything like it Well, it would be difficult to explain how clean another house is. Let alone travel to another location. These kind of businesses will see a decline. Also, would you feel comfortable sharing a zipcar or a lime scooter without knowing who touched it before? Me neither. Great opportunity for implementing "cleaning standards" and extended safety/health certifications for public locations like restaurants, hotels, and high end retailers.
Travel/hospitality in general One the one hand, people do want to get out of their homes again, go places, see other things than their backyard. But is a long-haul flight to Asia, Italy, or Australia the first thing they'll do? I don't believe so. Hard to maintain 6ft distance in an aircraft. Hard to trust other countries are "as safe as your own". Same for those pesky cruise ships.
I believe there will be a huge push towards self-awareness, fitness, health and medical/digital solutions though. These could be apps, warning solutions, more awareness for future virus waves (prepping) and communication tools. I even think very old technology like ham radio will see a revival.
Events Social functions that are large gatherings, require physical proximity and locations will have a huge problem. clubs, bars, concerts,... no clue where they'll end up. Facebook just canceled all of their events until June 2021. On the flipside, digital socializing apps will flourish. Digital communities, SNS and online dating will be the winners.
AI & robots These solutions can help, will never get sick and protect humans more than ever. They will not only survive this crisis but also see more investments and legal frameworks allowing them to create a new lifestyle. Imagine how much safer it would be if some form of robot could walk from the delivery car to your doorstep! Could be a drone as well, dropping off a package in your front yard.
Our lives will be more focused on being at home, having stuff delivered to our homes and connect in digital ways. Just like all the futuristic movies always told us...
To add to this, I've been thinking that people are going to trend towards larger homes and apartments and care less for community amenities.
Is this assuming there will never be a vaccine or reliable treatment so everyone will be afraid to go outside forever?
Neither.
Independent of these two situations, people in general will realize they like WFH. Companies will also see that a portion of the employees may stay at home. Maybe 30%? And the remaining staff can WFH maybe 2 days a week instead of 1. Those Fridays aren't really productive anyway.
The fundamental winner here is Amazon, we knew this all along. Covid19 is only pouring gas onto the fire. There are a few stores I would like to see from the inside again, but are you guys really missing all the stores that are shut at the moment? Do we really need this excess of retail outlets?
Events/concerts/movies They do have potential if it is safe to go out, one day. Nobody knows when that will be. In the mean time, it'll be Netflix. Like before.
Even a virus can not make intl. travel extinct, but it will take a whole lot to get to the former level. easyJet is looking at scenarios where they might shut down for up to 9 months.
WeWork & Co might survive if companies may use their services as the only office and everyone else is WFH all the time. Then it might be cheaper. Like startups are doing it already... could pay off if they give discounts and clean that place.
another huge winner: contactless and digital payment solutions. faster, better data usage, more incentives and safer for your health.
Damn, yall are on some real dystopian future shit here. I think things will mostly go back to normal with more emphasis on self hygiene, health, and sanitization of homes and public areas. Obviously some increases and decreases in certain industries to follow. Otherwise, I find it hard to believe that we will basically "never live the same again" and "pre-corona life" is gone forever. Also for the "how we live our lives is forever changed people" - why is that reaction necessary assuming we will eventually have a vaccine and reliable treatment for the virus? Pretty huge market and the best scientists in the world working on it so I would assume that we will likely have this in the near future.
Exactly. There have been a multitude of pandemics throughout history, and in the long run they generally haven't really changed the way we live our lives beyond more emphasis on self hygiene, and that too isn't all that drastic of a change.
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