I've been wondering about this for a while and wanted to hear what you guys think. Here is my thinking:
1) You need substantive experience to get into b-school
2) Because of the poor state of the economy over the past few years, and arguably for a few more to come, there are/will be less opportunities for talented people to gain the experience they need to be competitive for b-school
3) Thus, the lucky people who do have jobs where they can gain the necessary experience will face less competition for entry into b-schools.
This is of course assuming that b-schools don't offset the falling numbers of young domestic applicants by letting in more older or international applicants.
on contrair mon ami.
bad economy means more people have incentives to go to bschool and wait out 2 years till the economy improves.
No, the opposite. People get laid off (or see lackluster exit opps) and business school becomes an option. Also substantive experience does not mean GS TMT...actually, business school are rather indifferent as to your group.
There was a thread last week asking if 740 was the new 700 on the GMAT. That score inflation is largely attributable to record numbers of applicants, all of whom are trying harder.
It is also worse if you are in finance. Top business schools have trimmed their number of finance sector admits, while the absolute number of applicants from finance has remained constant (or increased).
You missed the most obvious points: 1.) bad economy----> dont want to leave current job because you won't be guaranteed to re-enter the workforce post B-school 2.) bad economy ------> would rather save than spend the $ on B-school
Economically speaking, a bad economy = a more competitive labor market. Part of the reason for the increase in labor market competition is a return to education.
Well, I think the answer is quite complex.
On one hand you have MORE unemployed or underemployed recent college graduates who are looking to make a career change. Also you have your usual bschool applicants who come from finance, consulting, tech, etc.
On the other hand many of these recent graduates either do not want to leave their job in fear they will not find one when they graduate and unemployed/underemployed students who already have piles of debt could be put off by the idea of increasing the burden.
However, I strongly think competition has increased for bschool admissions because now you have all the 3.8 urban studies majors who need to learn something relevant...
I'm applying for bschool right as the economy starts to pick up because the competition will be less intense. Right now, a legion of people that (1) were fired or (2) are afraid of being fired or (3) can't find work are applying to / attending bschool. When times are good, people are making money and would rather push off bschool while they bank some money. According to every adcom I've talked to, the last few years were record highs for number AND quality of applicants. My guess is that things pick up by 2013/14, and people will want to take advantage of employment opportunities. This leaves a lot of grad options more open...or should I say, less sought after...for people like me.
So, if you're a less than ideal candidate (like myself) the point in time with the least competition will be right after the economy picks up and everyone is trying to get a job. The people graduating will be hyper qualified and likely be good bosses, and I'll follow a couple of years later. I'm also assuming that a fair share of the new graduates will be the bookworm type that I can outpolitic in the office, so competing against that type will be my primary advantage. Until then, I have to make the best of what I've got.
The upside to this is that, again, a less than sterling candidate such as myself will stand a better chance at getting into a beter program by virtue of (1) less people applying and (2) making the case that I found work and progressed at it despite the economy and weak credentials. If I had better grades and a better job, I'd apply this year. Instead, I have to wait a year and look for the opportunity where others don't....largely because I HAVE TO, not because I'm a contrarian. This line of reasoning is heavily debated, but it's based on the same logic I've used to create opportunity for myself in the past where none existed, so I'm basically doing what works.
Hopefully, that helps you understand things a bit.
Whoops, pulled a UBS.....double post!
Things are not picking up, and with the way things are going, I except more firing.
Terrible time in the world of finance to be looking for a job OR applying to b-school
During the previous downturn (dot-com crash in 2001, 9/11), applications spiked in 2002 to record highs, then dipped to 10-15 year lows in 2004 and 2005, before recovering again year over year up until 2008. From 2008 onwards, it has been more or less stagnant (you didn't see the big spike in 2009 like you did in 2002).
What's also preventing a deluge of applicants is the cost. B-school tuition has basically doubled in 10 years, while post-MBA salaries have basically remained flat, and pre-MBA salaries have gone up significantly (10-15 years ago, it was rare even for IB analysts to clear $100K; now, it's increasingly common even amongst engineers working in the Silicon Valley with 5 years experience). So financially the ROI isn't quite as compelling as it used to be.
Also, the applicant pool has changed - and it's hard to say how that will affect applicant volumes and selectivity going forward. In essence, applicants from Europe, LatAm, US (non-Asian-Americans) and China has been stagnant or declining, whereas those from India have skyrocketed.
Consider this: Kellogg announced earlier this year that they are shrinking the class size of their 2-year MBA program in the next few years, and expanding their 1-year program. You don't really do that unless you believe that applicant volume will continue to weaken longer-term.
I think though it comes down to how long we are stuck in a bad economy. If the sentiment is that we're in for a prolonged downturn, applicant volumes will continue to decline. If folks believe that a turnaround is around the corner (next year or so), you'll see apps go up.
So it kinda comes down to what happens with Europe and whether its situation will drag down the rest of the world (or not). And when the inevitable slowdown in China's growth will happen.
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