Hearing a lot of “Trump landslide” recently. At the same time leftists have the same mindset as 2016, thinking there’s no way Trump will win again, citing the polls. Have also heard conservatives doubting Trump and liberals doubting Biden. I honestly have no idea what’s gonna go down. Thoughts?
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Yeah - the polls seem to favor Biden currently, but I think Trump may win this again.
What makes you think that? Just a gut feeling?
The media seems to be saying a similar story to Hillary's polls. I think there is a large group of people that vote for Trump, but may be embarrassed about it or not talk about it or poll about it. Biden supporters don't seem to have that issue and are more vocal. Also, I think Trump has been doing well on his roadshow lately - more than Biden. Trump even got Corona and got over it. I think Trump has momentum currently.
Yeah I guess we’ll see how strong the silent majority really is on Tuesday
This was interesting to read, as all the trump supporters I know (mainly high school associates from the burbs) are extremely vocal about it and share a billion trumptrain MAGA 2020 fb memes a day. Anecdotal I know.. but I really don’t see anyone being vocal about their Biden support. It’s more so being vocal about wanting Trump to be gone ASAP
I wasn't addressing that group - I was mainly highlighting how this group may skew the polls. The group you talk about are the guaranteed Trump voter who is vocal and has the red hat and stickers and everything - we have all seen these people. Yes they exist.
Should a religious person vote for Trump?
I predict ... a bountiful harvest of fees for lawyers representing both sides.
Almost certainly
That is for sure
What are the two bottom tiers of Maslow's Hierarchy of needs regarding motivation theory? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs
The bottom level is physiological (water,food,etc.) and the second to bottom is safety.
For many physiological needs are covered by unsurprisingly having a job. You can tell me for yourself which party’s states are having stronger economies and jobs.
For safety needs, many see the police as their sign of safety. Yes, there are a few bad apples and certain aspects could be reformed. But the whole “defund the police” movement is not sitting well with many people.
Of course if you are fortunate to be making six figures while working from home in a gated community /luxury apartment, this doesn’t matter. But that is not the typical American.
Based off this theory, I’m predicting Trump will win.
Honestly I think I and many other young Americans spend way too much time on social media and it kind of distorts our perception of reality in this country. Thinking about the US as a whole it seems kind of obvious that Trump could win.
Seems pretty obvious. How could Trump lose?
This is my view too. Exactly the same happened with Brexit, where people couldn't distinguish between the views of London and the rest of the country. Further think, polls are overrated as not many people are going to actually admit to voting for Trump.
Did covid just never happen?
For a lot of people COVID is level 3 (caring about others). Note this is just a theory and admittedly a base way to look at things, but then again human nature is far from ideal.
I'm guessing the election unfolding like this:
1. Republicans engaging in full-on voter suppression in swing states
2. Biden wins on election day
3. Trump demands recounts, cites events from point 1)
4. Election eventually gets held up in court. Trump loses, Biden wins.
Do you actually believe republicans will engage in “full on voter suppression” or are you just saying that
They've already done so. Just one example -- TX Rs trying to throwout 127,000 votes in Harris County.
R’s engaged in full-on voter suppression just as recently as 2018 (ie Georgia), why wouldn’t they do it again for down ballot elections and include the presidential election this time too
5) Kamala president by February
I haven't really heard anything about a Trump landslide other than from Trumps supporters in my very conservative area. Polls weren't even necessarily "wrong" in 2016. Clinton had the popular vote and the swing states were within the margin of error and swung towards Trump. Biden's lead seems to be larger and more stable, along with larger leads in the swing states (MI, WI, though PA is closer) and with more states with potential to flip (NC, GA, AZ). Also Clinton lost a lot after the Comey letter. Trump had a very real chance to win in 2016 and went on to do so. I think Biden has a stronger chance than Clinton, and do expect him to win.
What's interesting this time around is the record high early voting (90 million+) and large amounts of mail-in voting. Curious to see how if at all that plays out with disputes and court decisions on or after Election Day.
I've been listening to and following 538 a lot for election news and statistics recently as well which is what most of my post is based off. Happy to hear from others if they have any issues with the source or other recommendations.
Pretty much have been doing the same thing checking 538 and mostly agree. Though, I think polls are slightly overestimating Biden by 2-5% in the Midwest. Polling averages overestimated Dems in this area even in 2018 after making polling adjustments. And in 2018, there's no excuses like the Comey letter or high number of undecided voters. Another factor is how many absentee mail in ballots are rejected for being late. There's evidence showing significant delays and 5% of votes arriving late could change the margin by up to 2-3%.
The mail in voting is gonna cause a bloodbath for sure
If anyone has been following the Democratic primaries, you will realise the whole thing as a farce. It seems like the DNC is not interested in contesting in the 2020 election given Pres Trump's popularity; and then Covid came and then Eureka moment for the DNC. Let's just blame Pres Trump for everything and try our luck. On candidates? Let's pick the 2 dirtiest DC politicians Biden and Harris so we can have leverage over them.
My upshot:
50% Trump Win
30% Contested
20% Biden Win
What does “contested” entail exactly?
I'd guess either it goes to courts because of issues with mail-in voting or its 269-269 which is a very real possibility (https://www.270towin.com/maps/38oJ6)
Yes like what Joe mentioned. Due to the mail-in voting, unsolicited ballots (those automatically mailed to registered voters without voters requesting for it), votes harvesting etc. if any candidate loses by a margin, a recount, votes validation and court case may take place and we may not be see a winner until weeks or months later the election.
I think Trump might get it, but I am more confident in Biden than I was in Hillary. I knew Hillary was going down to Donald, had it called from the second they were nominated. This time however, I know a lot of people who switched away from Trump due to his bullshit false promises, so I am hoping that plays a role. Polls are looking worse for Trump than they were when he went against Hildawg, especially in PA and Michigan, so if those two hold, then Biden wins. I do think Biden will take PA. His working-man persona and being tied to Scranton is a huge plus for them, and Trump never brought back their steel and coal industries.
It is very unlikely that Trump wins PA. PA will decided in the burbs and the vast majority of people in these areas are going to vote for Biden. And I agree that Biden will make a small dent in the middle of the state because he is from Scranton.
Even after his whole “banning fossil fuels” incident??
I mean the polls favor Biden but what makes me think Biden will get PA more relates to some of my relatives who loved him in 2016 hating him now. Trump never brought back the steels and coal mining jobs they so crave, and they kind of hate him lying about that. Kind of surprised they ditched Trump because my relatives down there are some of the most racist, spiteful people I know, so I really didn't expect them to ever turn to Biden, but from what I hear, they did. Nobody I know works in natural gas so maybe the mentality is different there.
If it is a fair election, Biden will win. I do not think we have the same anti-Hillary sentiment that we had in 2016. Trump and his buddies are likely going to try to intimidate voters at the polls. I hope there is a police presence to stop this stuff. I do not think the election will be decided on Tuesday.
Regardless of who wins, life has to go on. Women are going to fall into a state of depression if Trump wins.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think Trump remains President regardless of the votes. If Biden wins, even if 99% of voters vote for Biden (which isn’t the case but I’m just making a point), Trump claims victory on election night anyway. I think Trump will contest it in every single way until the Supreme Court says he won. If somehow that doesn’t work, I think he’ll declare national emergency and try and rally up militias and idiots to jump in and “save our country from the evil liberals”. I hope I’m wrong, I recognize I’m jaded as hell and have no faith in humans to do the right thing. I do know the attorneys on both sides will take in a ton of fees, for whatever the dollar is worth after all of this. But I don’t think I’m alone in my thinking, considering there’s been 5 million new registered gun owners and buying a rifle and decent quality ammo is ridiculous right now.
maybe. That seems to be an unlikely scenario in my opinion. It's really as simple as if he gets repeat wins in pa and oh
I’m happy to say I fully hope I’m wrong and worried over nothing. I’ll be the first to admit I’m wrong if whatever happens goes off without a hitch. I don’t like Biden, but I’m voting for him because I want stability back in the country. If it’s 4 years of the same old political BS then so be it. I was hopeful for Yang but knew he wouldn’t win the nomination.
You sound like the liberal version of Alex Jones.
yeah who the hell knows what's going to happen. BUT i think that what none of the analyses/polls account for is the fact that voter turnout is likely going to hit a historical high with, i'd guess, infinitely more new/first-time voters than ever before (which polls simply do not seem to account for). so i think it will ultimately all come down to who turns out to vote! this swing of new voters could boost either party (which could vary by state, as well)
but i feel like regardless of the outcome - both sides will cry voter suppression / rigged / etc etc if there is perhaps some sliver of evidence that may suggest so (if it's a landslide in either direction, i think it'd be harder to make that argument)
It’s being set up right now so that both sides are convinced that the ONLY way the other side could win is through cheating.
Trump
Trump for certain
Are you will to put money on this? I'll bet $100 on Biden winning.
Have it in the other thread, but Biden wins in a landslide. Talking mid 300s electoral votes and a 7ish pt popular vote margin
Trump did 5 rallies Sunday and 5 more today. Impressive.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rall…
Biden and Harris is hiding in the basement and you have to give props for their handlers for advising that. That, in retrospect has been a good strategy.
Biden has a basement in Warm Springs, Georgia?
Never try to predict the highly unpredictable
Kinda want to see a 269-269 tie for maximum chaos.
I’d rather that didn’t happen.
Donnie is going to win obviously.
Are you will to put money on this? I'll bet $100 on Biden winning.
shit if you promise to pay up then why not?
It's election day yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh
I’m so nervous
Bump. We're gonna need to pump this thread up, got some rookie numbers going. Any early feelers out there?
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