New product adoption rate assumptions

When analyzing a new business development opportunity, how do you guys make the growth rate assumption completely new product? I've done plenty of these in the past, but they were always for an existing product where I already know what the predefined market is. This is a first where I need to assume an adoption rate for the new product and I'm not sure how I can justify the assumption or tie it back to something. I don't exactly want to pull a percentage out of my ass but the growth rate will probably be exponential. This specific one is for oil and gas, but I'm open to suggestions from all industries.

 

Hi astfin,

I really appreciate your quick response. I have read forums on it but it's the product I will be managing and know that it's a good idea to cover in the Thank You letter things/topics/stories you left out during the interview. The question was presented in a very casual meeting and was thinking it could be good to elaborate on the question. It's a tough decision too because I already sent a thank you letter.. I assume you would still advise not sending a follow up email even if I believe I could craft a very strong pricing strategy?

 

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