Watching the news and saw that Wall Street and other financial firms are expecting to shrink their NYC office count by 16% as a result of COVID and the work from home "success". That move will also cost NY State $37bn in tax revenue over the next two years. It's projected that such firms might target suburban office locations in the tri-state area, as well as around the country.
How do you guys see this playing out long term for NYC? Will it remain the financial capital of the world and will it continue to attract top talent? Or will it lose such talent to cities such as Charlotte, Austin, Minneapolis, Seattle etc. that have seen an influx of younger professionals lately.
Moreover, would you guys choose to be in NYC if your firm gave you the choice, of say, staying in NYC or working in Charlotte? Are we seeing the end of the NYC / urban cities or is it being overblown?
as long millions of young broke attractive girls and aspiring models/actresses/FTI students in their twenties continue to move to NYC for a couple years to "live the city life", NYC will have no problem attracting wall street professionals.
LA has more of that though, New York has a certain culture that attracts the Wall Street types
Disagree. Quality of women is higher in nyc. Secondly they somewhat revere Wall Street types
Sure COVID is doing a lot of damage in the short-term (especially in the US because oh boy are we stubborn), but I definitely think that in the long-run cities offer too many advantages. Great work opportunities, lots of different cultures, access to huge numbers of people. There is a reason young people often migrate to the city. WFH mainly targets the issues of commuting, not the benefits of living in a city, so I think it might even improve city lifestyles.
Maybe NYC will retract a bit due to fear of pandemics breaking out again and people deciding to move to more spacious suburban and rural homes, but I don't think that COVID is the killing blow in NYC's ability to attract top talent and remain a financial capital. I wouldn't view the growth of Charlotte, Austin, etc. as evidence of NYC falling behind, but rather evidence of the catch-up effect.
They're gonna raise taxes a second round after this year lol, mark my words. NYC taxes are ridiculous
When they say suburbs, they probably still mean NYC area.
People in REPE are already saying that housing prices are going to plummet.. Rent control combined with emigration will mean a Fidi, Murray Hill, Upper east studios will go from 700 to 450 in the next 5 years
what does additional rent control on rent regulated (non market rate) apartments have to do with market rate studio prices? I get the emigration aspect, but flipside to that how long do you think 20 something year old will live with their parents?
Where do you rent a studio in any of those locations for less than 2k?
If anything is going to kill NYC it is its politics.
I know and see on FB groups a large amount of families moving from the UES & North Brooklyn who want to move to the suburbs. They are primarily doing this for 2 reasons, COVID, and schools. There are a fundamental lack of schools in NYC, public and private. How else do schools like Dalton and Horace Mann charge 60k a year, and it is only going to rise. NYC public schools sucks, no accountability to the students or discipline. I got accepted to Brooklyn Tech, and still chose to go to a parochial school. My parents shelled out 8k for 1-year of tuition in the early 2000s. Tuitition now is close to 20k.
COVID will end, people will come back. There is nothing like NYC, I went to school in Philly, is it fun sure. Is it a shit hole, also yes. You don't get the smartest, richest people in one location that bars close at 4am, best food etc.
What worries me is the political landscape. I am old enough to remember NYC being a SCARY fucking place. You had to have street smarts, situational awareness, and common sense. It was Mayor Bean in the 70s and mayor Lindsay who ruined NYC. Crime was everywhere. I remember my parents car being stolen on the UWS and used as a livery cab. We would occassionally see it and try and chase it down to apprehend the thief. Last weekend, my parents car got shot up on the UWS. The increase and violence and the rise of political panderers is going to ruin New York. AOC lost us Amazon, now she wants to tax rich people based on New Worth.
If black lives matter meant what the slogan insinuates nobody would be against it. I bike ride by the group set up outside city hall. These people look like rejects from a Phish concert. There are no more grown ups running things, liberals have ruined the greatest city in the world.
This is a small part of what you said and unrelated to this thread overall, but I had to work in Philly for a couple months a few years ago and thought the city actually had a good food scene, quality places for very fair prices compared to other cities imo. I then asked my local coworkers about rent and was also a little jealous.
It is not bad. The people are trash though. And I say that having friends who were are from that area.
All in all, I'd rather live in DC, but Philly is OK. Better than Boston, except the sports fans. Philly had the most violent sports fans EVER. My college buddies harassed a kids a Philly game because he had on an opposing teams jersey. It wasn't even like a rival team. They legit whip batteries at people.
I agree with most of what you said but schools in NYC are no worse than a lot of other smaller but popular cities in the US. Grew up in a southern city where public schools are notoriously shitty and tuition for my non boarding private hs was 35k yearly.
It's unreal. I think they think after the election, they can turn it all around by Xmas. But I'm not too sure about that. I have some friends and relatives (older) who live in AOC's district and they are appalled and devastated by what's going on there. The constituents aren't represented at all. Of course not - she has national goals, it ain't about Queens to her. The city was nearly Disneyland pre-riot. Do you remember Bryant Park back in the day, all grown over, dangerous to walk past? You'd never go in those restrooms years ago. Travesty.
The fuck are you talking about nyc public schools suck?
Stuyvesant, Bronx Science...literally some of the most "target" high schools in the nation with a bunch of Nobel laureates as alums.
Brooklyn Tech is a good school as well. You're right that most NYC public schools aren't great and some are downright terrible, but the examples you picked are not examples of that lol, and you also fail to mention that NY has some of the best high schools in the world. If you're decently smart, it's actually a very meritocratic high school system that rewards top performers.
Don't even get me started on private school bias in NYC lol - sure, go to Dalton/Horace Mann and overpay steeply for a merely decent education and the privilege of being educated alongside brats, princes and teenage cokeheads with too much daddy money for their own good.
As someone considering living here long term, are the public schools in the city actually "targets"? I came from a very privileged high school community and would want the same for my kids, should they grow up and go to school in NYC.
Yes, NYC specialized public schools are some of the best in the United States. Sorry if any of you NYC residents turned haters couldn’t get into any of them. If you didnt you’re probably not smart enough to do banking anyway
OK but this argument doesn't really track. If we went from the Bronx burning and your car being stolen to being "great" again in the aughts and teens, then clearly there was something else at stake besides "politics," because the city rebounded from what was unquestionably a worse spot than it is in now.
Moreover, bad "politics" means something different to a rich white Manhattanite than it does to a minority living in the Bronx. It's easy to equate downtown Manhattan with NYC, but it's a tiny part of the city.
I'm not one to blithely assume that NYC will retain it's dominant position in the global financial markets forever and regardless of any cultural or legislative change, but I do think you need to make the argument a little more strongly against it if you want to be taken seriously. Inertia is a powerful thing. Sure, finance and law firms may pare back their office space, but that's only been accelerated and not started by COVID and doesn't imply that they'll be relocating that space elsewhere - if one wants to argue that the landscape for office jobs in general is being changed, that's a different story that isn't net negative to NYC versus any other urban area. NYC has a number of other thriving industries (including tech, despite the howls of out of touch Amazon HQ2 supporters) and is more able to adapt than anywhere else.
It was business friendly policies and a drastic decrease in crime which helped New York rise from the dangerous but financially rewarding cesspool it was.
I don't think politics are subjective, or rather "good" is not subjective. From someone who is vested in the economic well being on New York City, for selfish reasons, all people should want to vote someone into office who will make their station in life better, fairer, and more just. What I see with DeBlasio is bad policy. Maybe my fears are just that fears, but I really fear that NYC is starting to turn to Chicago. Where democrataic major Lightfoot chastised police murders(and rightly so), but neglects that a much larger portion of her constituency is being effected by murders within the inner city. We have seen a large uptick in murders and crime in NYC since the BLM movement. Honestly the statistics are just not there to show that police in general are treating one race of people much different than another. But that is a whole other discussion.
I don't believe I said NYC will stop being the powerhouse it is, but do I see it slowing a little yes, does that translate from my perspective that real estate prices will decline by some level, yes. Does that represent lack f demand, yes. Do I see how NYC will balance its budget when the majority of politicians don't understand budgets or how the city gets it tax revenue, no, I don't. Remember when NYC went bankrupt under Mayor Bean, same thing could happen here and I don't think we should get bailed out by folks in Texas who have had sound free market laws.
Nothing can ever bring down NYC.
NYC is a well built machine. It must run. It will likely always be a well run machine in our lifetimes.
Dude, you serious? NYC is the opposite of a well oiled machine. It is a vintage ferrari worth 5 million, but needs constant upgrades/replacement parts. Parts wear over time, Also doesn't pass current day emission standards, but passes because of grandfathering. Then we get rid of grandfathering laws(2019 Rent Laws).
How do you exempt buildings built pre 1900s from laws enabling them to be renovated?
How does this thread get debumped? WallStreetOasis.com the intent was never a political one...
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