End of the Recession?

Mmmm Beefy's picture
Rank: Orangutan | 258

Promising news came on Friday as employment numbers were up as well as construction and manufacturing. All this good news has prompted economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC to raise their growth forecasts for third quarter.
Renewed faith in Europe has driven up the Euro and European stocks as well because of a pledge by France and Germany to devise a plan to fix the debt crisis within three weeks.

All this good news seems to have changed people's mind about the economy. Allen Sinai, the president of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. said that "The U.S. economy doesn't look like it's double-dipping at all".

This raises the question, are we on the way out of the recession? Have we already passed the worst of it? Or do you guys think that a double dip is eminent and this is just the eye of the storm. I am skeptical about France and Germany to be able to fix their fiscally retarded cousins in the Eurozone. The US seems pretty shaky too with hipsters rioting in the streets for free college or more unemployment benefits or whatever they want and a national debt that seems to be growing almost as fast as that strippers hedge fund. What do you guys think, are we on the way out?

Region: 
Germany
France
All Europe
United States - Northeast

Comments (19)

Oct 10, 2011

OP, what a funny thread....It seems like everyone has the feeling they are walking on sunshine or they can conquer the world. I'm currently short the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1zzJIWKCMw

Oct 10, 2011

^ Agreed.

You should really read reminiscence's of a stock operator, before asking questions of this nature.

The world is clearly in a shit hole with nothing fundamentally strong enought to pull it out...people get misled by bullshit events like merkel's and sarkozy's comments, and thats how they lose money...

Settle in for the long haul.

Oct 10, 2011

The fickleness of talking heads and its effects on the market are beyond hysterical and fascinating at the same time. A 10% S&P 500 rally in the past 5 trading days based on what exactly?

Eh, I shoulda sold my TVIX trade last Tuesday ... looks like I'll have to hold a bit longer until the next shit hits the fan.

My name is Nicky, but you can call me Dre.

Oct 10, 2011
aempirei:

The fickleness of talking heads and its effects on the market are beyond hysterical and fascinating at the same time. A 10% S&P 500 rally in the past 5 trading days based on what exactly?

Eh, I shoulda sold my TVIX trade last Tuesday ... looks like I'll have to hold a bit longer until the next shit hits the fan.

I will be actively rooting against you- I have been riding XIV for a couple months and been getting crushed- the past week was a nice bit of relief and I plan on holding. Futures can't stay in backwardation forever (I hope?)

Feb 12, 2012
duffmt6:
aempirei:

The fickleness of talking heads and its effects on the market are beyond hysterical and fascinating at the same time. A 10% S&P 500 rally in the past 5 trading days based on what exactly?

Eh, I shoulda sold my TVIX trade last Tuesday ... looks like I'll have to hold a bit longer until the next shit hits the fan.

I will be actively rooting against you- I have been riding XIV for a couple months and been getting crushed- the past week was a nice bit of relief and I plan on holding. Futures can't stay in backwardation forever (I hope?)

Duff, I totally got caught holding the bag on that trade. Hope your XIV worked out well for you. XIV is a great trade when the VIX gets over 30, much less 40. I should have seen that one coming!

That said, I just hopped back into TVIX on Thursday at 15.75 with 100% of my portfolio!

My name is Nicky, but you can call me Dre.

Oct 10, 2011

OP, just no, no way this rally continues. The market was grasping at straws for any sort of good news, which we kind of got from corp. earnings and Europe, but this won't last. I mean have you watched the market the past 3 months?!?!

Oct 10, 2011

Guyz this iz legit.. it's common knowledge that if the market ends a day in the green then the world recession is over.. dont make fun

I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

Oct 10, 2011

If revolution doesn't happen, you are doomed. You can forget about your dreams, tomorrow you will be lucky to have a loaf of bread. For the first time Harvard MBA who is 250k in debt will regret his choice of not becoming a factory worker. Farmers will laugh at your unemployed, hungry asses as food prices rise to infinity. You will regret not listening to your grandfather who wanted you to become a fisherman or a sailor.

Oct 10, 2011

Remember Columbus Day 2008? Up 11%, over the next month down 40%. lol Seems familiar.

Reality hits you hard, bro...

Oct 10, 2011

Dude the recession ended in July of 2010, according to NBER. This thread should ask if we are avoiding another recession. Which brings us to your ridiculous point that one day in the green and a slightly ok number (which is nowhere near what it should be this many months after a recession has ended and the Fed and US government have pumped everything they could into the economy).

Oct 10, 2011

Dude the recession ended in July of 2010, according to NBER. This thread should ask if we are avoiding another recession. Which brings us to your ridiculous point that one day in the green and a slightly ok number (which is nowhere near what it should be this many months after a recession has ended and the Fed and US government have pumped everything they could into the economy).

Are you sure? I thought green numbers were good.....and besides I know there is a recession out there. I typed it into wikipedia and I'm for sure on that. The details I'm a little hazy on though since me and my friends just choose not to participate in it.

"Hold on to your butts"

See all my other WSO posts here

Oct 10, 2011

has the dow not risen 1000 points since last Tuesday? Or does anyone pay attention to the past week (but still manage to notice the past few months)?

Oct 10, 2011

The Dow does not measure recessions, please refer to what LIBOR wrote.

Oct 10, 2011
olafenizer:

The Dow does not measure recessions, please refer to what LIBOR wrote.

ahh i was referring to the comments about "one day in the green" and the recession talks are over, reading NBER site now

Oct 10, 2011

correct me if i am wrong. But what exactly has been fixed?

Greek is still going to fail, they will take down the banks with them. EFSF will need to pump money into the banks trying to stop the bleeding WHILE the banks say they dont want any money.

Germany and France are still trying to figure out what's the "detailed" plan, which by the way, was supposedly figured out but won't be released until later?

the numbers in euro looked horrible and US numbers were good because the expectations weren't high

China is trying to rescue itself right now as well because of the slowdown in growth

You have a bunch of politicians promising the recovery, yet doing nothing about it. That's not really convincing in my opinion

Oct 11, 2011

A few economic indicators doesn't mean much. If you were thinking that a single day rally of 300+ points means recovery in this volatile market, you are mistaken. The markets are not a strong indicator of our economy, especially in this environment. But then again, who knows? You might be right. Sorry if that sounded hostile. Really tired from studying.

Oct 11, 2011
AFP:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM...
Bernanke sees 'green shoots' of US recovery
(AFP) - Mar 15, 2009
WASHINGTON (AFP) -- In his first television interview, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that America's worst recession in decades will likely end this year before a recovery gathers steam next year.
The "green shoots" of economic revival are already evident, Bernanke told CBS program "60 Minutes" in the interview broadcast late Sunday, which the network said was the first by any sitting Fed chairman in 20 years.
His assessment chimed with a new tone of cautious optimism from President Barack Obama's administration as top economic aides took to the airwaves earlier Sunday.

Echoed by Lawrence Summers, director of Obama's National Economic Council, Romer said a proposal from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to clean out US banks' bad loans would "come out very soon."

The US central bank chief, whose decision to sit down last Wednesday for the rare interview underscored the gravity of the crisis, said much depends on fixing the banking system.
"We're working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year," Bernanke said.

... and he was right!

Oct 15, 2011
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