FIFA World Cup Futures - Which country to win?

As of yesterday the World Cup lines (to win the world cup):

Spain +385 (So bet $100 to win $385)
Brazil +400
England +565
Argentina +585
Germany +1100
Netherlands +1000
Italy +1000
France +1500
Portugal +2500

Anybody see anything the wagering community hasn't yet?

Or pick the finalist:

Brazil v. Spain +800
Spain v. England +1000
Spain v. Netherlands +2000
England Argentina +2000

etc...

Comments (68)

 
Jun 7, 2010 - 3:09pm

People who actually know about soccer, would not bet against Brazil. Brazil always shows up to play at the WC. I will still keep my bets on Brazil. Having said that, Spain is good, but I do not see them going past the semi finals. We must remember, that Spain is not a traditional WC powerhouse. If they chocked in the Confederation (against the US) why would anyone expect them to win the WC. This is just my point of view.

 
Jun 7, 2010 - 3:45pm

Go to betfair if you can and bet while the games are on. Other than that I would also short one of the big ones ( probably Spain before Brazil) and long Germany or a country from South-Eastern Europe like Slovakia, because those have managed to surprise at pretty much any cup in the past 15 years.

 
Jun 7, 2010 - 5:07pm

Italy and Germany are great bets, especially Germany. Might put my money where my mouth is. Spain odds are terrible. England's odds (despite the fact that I'll be cheering for them) are even more ludicrous, even with Magic Fabio. And finally, if history has taught us anything, it is never to bet against Brazil.

What website did you get this from?

 
Jun 7, 2010 - 7:47pm

Audio:
What website did you get this from?

Got them off:
www.bigonsports.com

Also check www.betchris.com

There are a lot of different ways to play the WC. You can also pic winners for each group, pick the winning confederation (UEFA is -250, so bet 250 to win 100), or pick the group (A-H) to have the winner, golden ball award etc...

I like Italy and Germany as well. I think its tough to go long Spain with those odds as someone pointed out. I also can't convince myself to go short Brazil, given their historic success.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 9:27am

The odds are about right.

Spain are the current European champions and best team right now, Brazil always a top performer who no longer plays jogo bonito but practical football, etc.

World Cup bets are a multi-billion market (according to William Hill, there will be a billion worth of world cup bets only in the UK), and hence it's highly efficient.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 11:34am

dacasale:
The odds are about right.

Spain are the current European champions and best team right now, Brazil always a top performer who no longer plays jogo bonito but practical football, etc.

World Cup bets are a multi-billion market (according to William Hill, there will be a billion worth of world cup bets only in the UK), and hence it's highly efficient.

I respectfully disagree. I don't claim to be an expert in the matter, but my understanding is that Betfair odds are not set by bookies but by users. The reason why England get such low odds is because England - which are a betting nation - are convinced that they are going to win the WC.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 11:39am

Audio:
I respectfully disagree. I don't claim to be an expert in the matter, but my understanding is that Betfair odds are not set by bookies but by users. The reason why England get such low odds is because England - which are a betting nation - are convinced that they are going to win the WC.

Agreed.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 12:05pm

I don't have any stats to support or reject that claim. It's hard to tell.

In any case, arbitrage opportunities in price efficient markets are quickly taken. Many years ago, some bookies had different enough odds so it was possible to make risk free bets on the internet [as long as (1 / Odd 1) + (1 / Odd 2) + etc. up till + (1 / Odd n)

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 12:39pm

Argentina handed it to Brazil awhile back, so I'd go Argentina before Brazil. Germany is always a favorite of mine. I would love to see a Argentina v Germany final, not likely but it would be sweet. I think the US will make it to the semis.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 12:45pm

Personally, I would move England down below Netherlands, and probably even Portugal (moving Portugal above France and Italy). Spain, Brazil, Argentina, and Germany are a crapshoot. Italy, unfortunately, is just old. They're at the bottom, or second to last on that list.

Holding those lines constant, the most undervalued on that list are Argentina and Germany.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 12:57pm

h.e.pennypacker:
Personally, I would move England down below Netherlands, and probably even Portugal (moving Portugal above France and Italy). Spain, Brazil, Argentina, and Germany are a crapshoot. Italy, unfortunately, is just old. They're at the bottom, or second to last on that list.

Holding those lines constant, the most undervalued on that list are Argentina and Germany.

Agreed with all above, except for Argentina. Unfortunately Diego - who I consider to be the only true genius of the game ever - is an attention-seeking whore who wants to be the main event, and that could be fatal to his team. No team can afford to leave Javier Zanetti (Inter) and Esteban Cambiasso (Inter) behind, and yet Maradona did it, most probably because of clashes with the coach (like Riquelme).

Argentina have a couple of superstars up front with Milito, Tevez and Messi, but they are thin. If those players stay fit they will have a chance, but it's a long competition.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 4:30pm

h.e.pennypacker:
Personally, I would move England down below Netherlands, and probably even Portugal (moving Portugal above France and Italy). Spain, Brazil, Argentina, and Germany are a crapshoot. Italy, unfortunately, is just old. They're at the bottom, or second to last on that list.

Holding those lines constant, the most undervalued on that list are Argentina and Germany.

Disagree here for a main reason: Draw. Portugal will have to get out of their group first, which means finishing ahead of CIV. Even if Drogba is not 100%, CIV is talented enough to at least draw. Brazil is in the group, so likely Portugal, if they do advance will be in the second slot. This means, in all likelihood, they will face Spain in the first knock-out round. Argentina & Germany will likely also be lurking on that side of the draw. On the other hand, England has an easy group and, if they finish first in the group as is expected, likely will not face a difficult opponent until the semis in Brazil. Of course, so much tied in, but I'm speaking purely on odds/expectations.

So despite my belief Portugal is better, I think England has a better shot to make take it home.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
Jun 8, 2010 - 12:59pm

Actually I would also put Italy higher. Yes they are (VERY) old, and yes they have no amazing striker, but they will be incredibly difficult to beat. And Italy are never better than when they play horrible, defensive football / soccer.

My money is on Italy and Germany. I'm also shorting England.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 1:26pm

I can definitely say the team who is going to the world cup is not Spain nor Brazil because they simply have the highest odds. It did happen in the last three world cups.

 
Jun 8, 2010 - 5:20pm

h.e.pennypacker:
You're very right. I was talking without thinking (I was judging them directly, rather than considering the actually groupings).

Even now, though, the payout on England should be higher.

Agreed, from what I've heard, since so many English are betting on England, it's perhaps skewed the odds. I think they'd be a short for sure.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
Jun 8, 2010 - 6:24pm

Brazil is going to take it. Spain is really good and they just spanked Poland BUT when they're pressured hard by a good team, I think their inexperience on the big stage will show. They will make mistakes which will cost them the game. Spain will not win it all.

--------------------------- BossMode
 
Jun 8, 2010 - 10:21pm

^ This is by far the most stupid comment in the thread (and competition is high).
What "inexperience on the big stage" are you talking about? Spain just won the European Cup after beating Italy, Germany, and so on, and their players play in the top clubs in the world.
The trophies won by a national team 50 years ago doesn't matter in this game, it's the experience of the CURRENT players that count. "Spain will not win it all" is just a further unsupported idiotic comment.

I do think England has a decent chance bacouse of the easy group stage and potential easy crosses until semis. It will be much dependent on Rooney's physical condition, though. It's sad how much we depend on this guy.

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 12:09am

nas2008:
Spain doesn't have the experience in the world cups in facts they never made to any final world cup let alone winning it. Experience matters a lot in the world cups

What the fuck are you and Willy talking about? The national team's history means shit, the only thing that matters is the current squad, and they definitely have enough int'l experience (and club success) to win this WC. UKtop is right.

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 12:39am

Long:
Netherlands (sick team. lots of players at their prime. lots of experience in the rest. they're still my favorite to win even without Robben)
Italy (experience and their solid defense will triumph)
Portugal (they might not win, but they are vastly underrated with those odds)

Short:
Spain (i can guarantee that they'll choke just like they do every other time. it doesnt even matter that they have the best individual players)
England (good players, but will choke like spain... plus they have no team chemistry at all. just wait for lampard to fire off 30 shots without scoring a goal like he did at the last WC)
Argentina (great team and superstar players, but you can't win the world cup with such a shitty and uninspiring coach... look at how much they struggled in qualifying)
Germany (no good players are left. ballack is injured. podolski and klose are long done. the rest sucks.)
France (the worst out of these 8 teams. shouldn't even have qualified. i fully expect them to be knocked out at the group stage.)

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 1:13am

some team from africa

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none.——William Shakespeare
 
Jun 9, 2010 - 2:00am

the Spanish players are inexperienced in world cup competition (plus a lot of the starters are young as shit and it's their first world cup). I think that the young guys could crack under the pressure and choke. You may say that they are experienced because most of the starters come from Barca and Real and play at the Champions League level but whatever. I'm not saying Spain isn't good, I think they are technically the best team, but I just don't think they can beat Brazil head to head if it came down to it.

You're entitled to your opinion. Besides, I actually played soccer in college for 4 years so it's not like I'm just talking out of my ass (and I follow the players and leagues as well). But whatever dude, that's what I think.

--------------------------- BossMode
 
Jun 9, 2010 - 2:35am

I say that they are experienced not only for their club success, but for the fact that they won Euro 2008. Not exactly a squad that should be considered "inexperienced" in international play, having won the most recent major international trophy.

Btw, did you play for the actual team at HYP, or for the club (not that it matters, just curious)? I've played all my life, too.

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 10:53am

Experience is everything . Euro 2008 is nothing like the world cup

Greece won Euro 2004 what does that tell you? I am not even sure if they played WC 2006

I am 100% confident that Spain will not win the world cup.

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 11:19am

The euro is arguably better competition than the world cup as a whole. you cant say it is nothing like the world cup.

Spain has the best strikers, midfielders, defense, and goalkeeper. they have a damn good chance of winning it. They just have to execute.

 
Jun 9, 2010 - 8:09pm

I played college ball (Pac-10) for 4 years. I agree with all the post that go against Spain. Do not get me wrong, is is a great team, however, they lack the big tournament experience. Most of the time they are faced with real pressure, they have chocked.

BTW, spain does not have the best defense, nor midfielders or forwards. They do however, have some of the best forwards and midfielders, but not the overall best.

Here is my rationale for them not taking this cup. They were tested against the US (Not the strongest team) and lost 2-0. Some may say it was luck, but It goes to show that when the defense is faced with a team that actually has speed, they stumble. This goes for the offense as well. The offense was not able to play their game due to the high defensive pressure received from the U.S.

Regarding the Euro Cup - I think many can agree they had a very easy path. Many of the top Europeans teams did not show up to play. They beat Italy, but Italy was in very bad form and was underchieving.

Something to also keep in mind - some of Spain's top players are either injured or have recently recovered from an injury. Lastly, Spain has, at least for the last few WC's, been a favorite to win. But, like always, when faced witha challenge, they have underachieved. Having said all of this, Spain will no win.

Many of you won't agree with me, but this is my point of view.

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 1:54am

Agree with many of your points, but not buying the lack of experience argument. Spain's as experienced as anyone with guys like casillas puyol, xabi alonso, xavi, villa etc. In fact as you can see they have at least one seasoned player on every single line - and unlike a veron or Gilberto Silva these guys are in their prime and fit enough to still perform late into the tournament

Secondly I'd say Spain does have the best defense midfield and forward lines since its players are not only world class but highly complementary. Eg. Pique is slow and Puyol is short and not technically gifted, but they make up for each other's shortcomings and ramos adds speed; no other combo plays possession passing/penetration like xavi iniesta , and alonso brings strength and tackling; torres is able to draw defenders and villa exploit the openings etc etc.

In terms of US over Spain the second US goal was an ugly one - if i remember correctly it was pique's fault for not clearing a ball that's like 5 ft in front of the net which resulted in a tap in. Also US did go up 2-0 in the final vs. brasil, so evidently they are a formidable team. Now one big reason why Spain couldn't score a goal was that it's crosses were absolutely shit - it had a ridiculously low conversion rate. Cesc played on the wing against US but this time david silva should get the call

Where spain will run into trouble will be a lack of speed esp in defence, as well as if another team gets ahead and subsequently parks the bus in front of the net like in inter vs. barca. fitness is a question mark for iniesta and torres, but the team has decent back ups. I think Spain has the best chance to go very far if not win it, but to say that it won't win because it has historically underperformed doesn't make a lot of sense, since 1. this is an almost entirely different team from past WCs like the other guys have mentioned and 2. As winner and semi finalist in the two most recent major tournaments, Spain doesnt seem to have underachieved to me

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 7:11am

Spain is the top favorite to win the cup. Most of the players are among the top 3 in the world in their respective position (Casillas, Puyol, Pique, Ramos, Xavi, Iniesta, Alonson, Fabregas, Villa, Torres) In addition, the pillar of the team and the system they play is Barcelona (against poland 7 Barca players played), they can play blind. The reason that they haven`t won any world cup doesnt mean that they have not enough experience, a lot of them are winners of the eurocup and have won several Champions league titles (Casillas 2x CL, Pique 2x, Puyol 2x, Xavi 2x, Iniesta 2x, etc..)

Thats how they played against poland, football total. take a look at the second goal

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 12:11pm

p668:

Thats how they played against poland, football total. take a look at the second goal

That goal was a work of art. Beautiful.

Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard. -30 Rock
 
Jun 10, 2010 - 9:07am

I can't bet on betfair and I guess I have to resort to a march madness-type bracket for the WC - pathetic. Let me know if you guys know where I can short teams from the US (geographically)

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 12:06pm

Short Brazil and Long Germany and Italy. As the competition progresses, sell Germany and Italy and make a nice profit ^^

"What we can, we must; and because we can, we must"
 
Jun 10, 2010 - 1:17pm

VDDR: I still disagree with Spain having the best defense. You said it yourself, US scored bc the defender traped the ball in the six yard box instead of clearing it. And this is supposed to be the best defense? No way. Regarding Brazil and the US. The US did go up 2-0. The only difference between Spain and Brazil, is that Brazil did win. Brazil can play under pressure.

Regarding Poland, poland sucks. That just plain and simple. Tell me what happened w/ Korea. They were lucky to win that game. Spain has an easy group, which will affect them since they will not be chanllenged until the next round.

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 10:15pm

jgrb17:
VDDR: I still disagree with Spain having the best defense. You said it yourself, US scored bc the defender traped the ball in the six yard box instead of clearing it. And this is supposed to be the best defense? No way. Regarding Brazil and the US. The US did go up 2-0. The only difference between Spain and Brazil, is that Brazil did win. Brazil can play under pressure.

Regarding Poland, poland sucks. That just plain and simple. Tell me what happened w/ Korea. They were lucky to win that game. Spain has an easy group, which will affect them since they will not be chanllenged until the next round.

who has the best defense then?

 
Jun 11, 2010 - 1:27am

jgrb17:
VDDR: I still disagree with Spain having the best defense. You said it yourself, US scored bc the defender traped the ball in the six yard box instead of clearing it. And this is supposed to be the best defense? No way. Regarding Brazil and the US. The US did go up 2-0. The only difference between Spain and Brazil, is that Brazil did win. Brazil can play under pressure.

Regarding Poland, poland sucks. That just plain and simple. Tell me what happened w/ Korea. They were lucky to win that game. Spain has an easy group, which will affect them since they will not be chanllenged until the next round.

Its probably not fair to make a judgement of who's the best based on one mistake - name me any other defensive line there will of course be mistakes made. (btw saw the replay just now the second goal was caused by Ramo's, not pique like i said earlier, sorry) Remember Spain did keep a clean sheet in confed cup group stage, is one of the teams with the least goal conceded in WC qualifiers and Barca with Pique/Puyol has the least goals against in La Liga by a mile. Also the way Pique can carry the ball out of defense and make a killer pass adds another dimension to Spain's attack, I personally haven't seen other player that can do it as well as him.

As to why Spain couldn't crack open the net vs. US, they had nothing going on down the wings like I said earlier, and they went with direct passing against a physical team rather than pass and run penetration, which is what they do best. In other words the issue was tactical as much as anything else

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 1:56pm

My picks for who is to win the World Cup. I really believe that there are at least 4 squads that have an amazing shot at winning.

Spain has the best overall squad and chemistry period. But they have had good teams in the past and always seem to underachieve in the World Cup so I would not be so sure to bet on them winning. They deservedly won the Eurocup and I don't think them losing to USA should affect their chances at the World Cup.

Brazil have a great squad once again, but unlike previous years where their squad is filled with attacking flair, it is now a defensive brick wall with some good strikers who can counter. They have passion and a good coach so I believe they got a good shot at the World Cup.

Argentina have the most talented squad player for player, the only problem is that their coach Maradona was a great player but not a great coach. Their chemistry is lacking, but if they take the group stage (which they should), I think that they will gain some momentum and become a stronger team game by game.

England are world-class, Rooney is the best striker in the game, but their defense and especially goalkeeper are weak. They got a great coach though and their spirit is as strong as the Brazilians so I wouldn't write them off too quickly.

Holland also has an amazing squad, they have a good mixture of experience and youth, and their chemistry is great. This is probably the best squad they have had in a long time if not since the game was created.

Teams I feel are overrated are Italy, Germany, France and Portugal, I don't think any of them will even reach the semis. Teams I think will surprise a lot of people are Cameroon, Cote D'ivoire, and South Korea.

Overall, I really can't put my finger on one single team to win the world cup since there is imo a lot of great teams out there which may possibly take the cup.

PS. I dunno what to say about the US since their expectations range from not getting out of the group stages to making it to the semi-finals so it's hard to guess if they will underachieve or overachieve.

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 5:19pm

BCbanker:
US is 55-1? I think you have to be long that.

I'm trying to get 75 or 80-1 from some of my buddies here that laugh at US Soccer.

55-1 is actually not great odds in my opinion but maybe that is because their group isn't super strong...very excited for the games this weekend.

For the moment, I'm just hoping the Celtics can recover from Tuesday and even the series with LA. Not sure if Kobe will build another brick-house like he did on Tues so I'm a bit concerned.

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 5:41pm

WallStreetOasis.com:
BCbanker:
US is 55-1? I think you have to be long that.

I'm trying to get 75 or 80-1 from some of my buddies here that laugh at US Soccer.

55-1 is actually not great odds in my opinion but maybe that is because their group isn't super strong...very excited for the games this weekend.

For the moment, I'm just hoping the Celtics can recover from Tuesday and even the series with LA. Not sure if Kobe will build another brick-house like he did on Tues so I'm a bit concerned.

US 80-1 is a good buy. 100-1 would be ideal. Sell before quarters for profit.

 
Jun 10, 2010 - 4:42pm

Uruguay - proceeding from group A with Mexico (short France) if I am right - and Serbia are two teams that I think will surprise a lot of people. Milos Krasic (perhaps alongside O. Cardozo) might just be the most underrated player in the whole tournament.

Spain and Holland are my favorites for the championship, though. Therefore I'd short Brazil since they are bound to meet Holland early if both win their respective groups.

 
Jun 16, 2010 - 12:12pm

Spain Spain Spain Spain lol they could not even beat Swiss. Spain lost their first game YAY!!!!!!!!!!!

Euro is nothing and it means nothing if they won it. Hey, Greece won Euro 2004

Spain doesn't have the experience in the world cup lol. It will be better for Spain not to advance and go home. I told you Spain is not going to win the world cup. Spain is a very weak team in this world cup and if they advance most likely they will face Brazil so it's the end of the Spain as we know it . Spain doesn't have the experience in dealing world cup games.

 
Jun 16, 2010 - 3:41pm

nas2008:
Spain Spain Spain Spain lol they could not even beat Swiss. Spain lost their first game YAY!!!!!!!!!!!

Euro is nothing and it means nothing if they won it. Hey, Greece won Euro 2004

Spain doesn't have the experience in the world cup lol. It will be better for Spain not to advance and go home. I told you Spain is not going to win the world cup. Spain is a very weak team in this world cup and if they advance most likely they will face Brazil so it's the end of the Spain as we know it . Spain doesn't have the experience in dealing world cup games.

Congratulations, you must have made a lot of money knowing that Spain would lose to the Swiss.

/sarcasm

 
Jul 10, 2010 - 1:12pm

spain has the core of FC barca, arguably one of the best teams in the world... puyol/pique, and iniesta/xavi in the middle... and then add star players around them... torres/villa... it's an extremely strong group down the middle, only weakness might be the outside defenders... but that's not even that much of a weakness (well maybe with robben and his left foot).

xavi really is the core of the group and one of the best center mids in the world. everything will filter through him.

 
Jul 10, 2010 - 2:33pm

nas2008:
Barcelona was beaten by Inter's Sneijder in the Champions League and Spain will be beaten again by Sneijder and Holland in the world cup.

No one should listen to your logic when it comes to soccer. Shall I bring up what you wrote earlier? Here it is:

"Spain doesn't have the experience in the world cup lol. It will be better for Spain not to advance and go home. I told you Spain is not going to win the world cup. Spain is a very weak team in this world cup and if they advance most likely they will face Brazil so it's the end of the Spain as we know it . Spain doesn't have the experience in dealing world cup games."

Hahaha.

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