Submitted for your consideration: a sincere discussion on the macro trend and economics. NOT a vegan rant - zero room for that here.
We ARE seeing a massive disruption in food - fueled by 4 factors:
1) consumer preference changes - esp. in GenZ and Millenials, which favor flexitarianism
2) rising meat prices globally
3) government regulation - incentives which favor meat reduction
4) rise of alternatives - tech-driven alt-proteins which are increasingly tasty and readily available
10 days ago Dean Foods, America's largest dairy company filed for Ch.11 bankruptcy, citing the rise of dairy alternatives as one of 2 factors leading to their collapse (WMT is the other).
Dairy consumption in the US is down 23%, despite record low milk prices. Plant-based milks now make up 13% of the milk market.
Numerous analysts have predicted massive future reductions in meat consumption as a portion of the protein stack, and a continued rise instead of plant-based-meat-analogues (Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, etc.) and the emergence of cellular-agriculture (using stem-cells to grow real meat in a bioreactor, aka cultured meat / clean meat). AT Kearney predicts that by 2040 traditional meat will be down 33%, with cell-ag meat making up 35% of the protein stack, and plant-based analogues making up 25%.
Sound crazy? Well, I'm a believer in technology, and that when a superior technology emerges it eventually dominates. Just like a car hit every driveway, and a PC eventually did hit every desk, once prices got cheap enough we may see the same with 'meat 2.0'. Already cell-ag meat is down to $50/lb. That's still too expensive for consumers of course, but considering it was $300,000/lb just 3 years ago, we're seeing massive drops in cost as technologies improve (Wright's Law at work).
Disclosure: I'm co-founder of a food-tech accelerator, and spend way too much of my time thinking about this sector. I have biases, and am talking my own book.
Seems like their own fault they went bankrupt. They refused to adapt and they’re dying. Toys R Us and Sears refuses to adapt. They’re gone. Same with many other companies throughout history.
Other companies offer a product that is nearly indistinguishable in taste, healthier, better for the environment, better for feeling good about yourself, and the same price? I doubt people (especially younger ones) are sticky about keeping their dairy products and meat. They’ll switch to the alternative easily (and as you’ve said, already are).
I’m lactose intolerant so I’m loving all the new flavors of lactose free milk, ice cream, and cheese.
Just have to point this out: soybois and vegans are a prime example of capitalism at work. Like it or not, they are progressing capitalism.
@Malta Monkey" 100% agree. Tyson and Cargill are both investing in their own disruptors, funding both plant-based-meat-analogues and clean-meat. They are hedging their bets, and also benefiting from the growth in these alt-proteins. The Cattlemen's Association is going the other way - the RIAA way by lobbying Congress to limit the use of the word 'meat'. Talk about failure to adapt to changing market conditions.
earthwalker7 - Thanks for posting this. This is a great discussion point.
Where does everyone go to find similar dialogues for other technologies?
no idea but do let me know if you find out. I'm def down to discuss tech trends for sure. Super interested.
if only it had been changed to almond juice instead of milk they definitely would still be in business
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