Getting out of prop- macroSubscribe
Curious on responses. 10 years experience trading everything, but mostly yield curve. Also direction rates, snp, oil, gasoline, individual equities in personal account.
I pretty much failed at interviews coming out of school along with having a resume with limits (engineering 3.4, top-20 school, 1520 SAT).
But I came out in 2007 and ended up joining a prop-macro shop. Did very well for a long-time; multiple years with 1+ million compensation (which also came with favorable tax rates). Last two years have been tough. Started 2015 up 105% first half of the year; then I had my first losing stretch of my entire career that last about 9 months. Ended that year up 20% and by the time that streak ended gave back about all of the 2015 gains. Since them I've stabilized my business, but I think prop-macro isn't a good space to be in going forward. For really 2 reasons - Central Banks have gotten much better at running macro policy so I'm predicting fairly stable interest rates. Think 2% - 3.5 on 10's for a very long time. Second the algos have eaten up the easy daily trades. Those easy scalps were basically the carry in prop.
My firm has shrunk by 75-85%. I still work there. But its boring not having a full trading desks. The firm hasn't failed because of bad manager; but I think its clear prop/hft is consolidating and interest rate focused is the worst spot. Seems like 3-4 places are surviving. GS is freaking out of FICC performance.
How should i position my career? Everything in my background makes me believe I'm good at the trading game. But staring at screens for 10 years does get boring. My engineering skills and higher math skills have obviously degraded; though logic, and other skills have improved. How many guys at 32 have seen a full market cycle and were involved in it?
I haven't put a lot of time into networking. Created a linkedin profile for the first time a month ago. I was much more on the track of doing prop for 10 years and then starting my own fund. If anyone has seen the Hugh Hendry's recent interviews you would understand why I think that route is dead.
I had a phone interview from linkedin with a headhunter for $15 billion fund that is mostly long short but looking to add some macro managers - but I think having poor performance this year and never managing size turned him off from pushing me for that position. A firm like that I think would be the best bet if I want to stay in trading. A place where there is a small macro group, but a bigger equity group. As I'm bearish on macro trading (demand side of the economy) but equity guys should still have a lot of trading opportunity (supply side of economy when the economy is stable).
I have some thoughts of leaving. One of my best friends dad is C-level and Vice chairman at a 100-200 billion company. So could probably get into a corporate role. One of my old roommates is from a top 20 mexican family so they run a real estate firm (own a couple towers). So not a lot of networking, but I do have some people who respect me. Then there's getting in thru girls. Had a gf tell me she would just text top 5 hedge fund manager she's met ( I know which 30 year old he bought a condo for; probably a few). I have one friend I see once or twice a year that owns a PE firm (About 1 billion). But I've never crossed into professional from social. And not sure how my skill set would apply. He did invite me to join him on a miami trip after sending him a few text recently.
Is it worth getting a MBA in my position? INSEAD interest me a lot, but mostly because I'd want a 1 year program and living in Paris sounds fun. Or it better to do part-time booth and keep working?
I would call this rambling, but I have not thought much about my career in a decade. The only connections I have are social and not professional. And realistically I am not a believer that FICC trading is a good spot to be long-term.