Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois. Hello … Where?

"The three states have seen an exodus, but it's not all to Texas and it's not all about taxes.

New York, California and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents. Almost 3.2 million more people left those states for elsewhere in the U.S. than arrived from other states, from 2010 through 2019, according to population estimates released last week by the Census Bureau. Nine other states saw net out-migration of more than 100,000 people over that period, but none really came close to the big three."

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/202...

Comments (61)

Most Helpful
Jan 18, 2020

Damn street-shitters and socialists

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  • Intern in IB - Gen
Jan 18, 2020

Good - less bodies to maneuver around on the street

Jan 20, 2020
Intern in IB - Gen:

Good - less bodies to maneuver around on the street

Less taxpayers as well. Look at the demographics of the ones leaving.

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit!

Jan 21, 2020
  1. Fewer taxpayers.
  2. I just did: "The adjusted gross income of California taxpayers who didn't migrate averaged $84,641, and migrants to all of the top-10 states made less than that....and all saw taxpayers with incomes below $50,000 overrepresented among the leavers from 2011 through 2018."
    Translation: the people leaving California (and other states) are on average the poorer half of the population.
Jan 18, 2020

The middle class in California is getting squeezed out. It's a state of the wealthy and the poor, the two groups that benefit from liberal policies.

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Jan 20, 2020
FCFE:

The middle class in California is getting squeezed out. It's a state of the wealthy and the poor, the two groups that benefit from liberal policies.

How exactly do the wealthy benefit from high taxes and erosion of private ownership?

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Jan 20, 2020

The wealthy elite in California will stick around because of their jobs (tech, VC, media & entertainment), and they have enough money that they are shielded from the consequences of bad policies.

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Jan 21, 2020
FCFE:

The middle class in California is getting squeezed out. It's a state of the wealthy and the poor, the two groups that benefit from liberal policies.

@FCFE everyone! The guy who will fit a set of facts to any given conclusion!

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Feb 3, 2020

I'm not convinced this guy is even in college yet if I'm being honest.

Jan 18, 2020

Minnesota

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Jan 21, 2020

Elaborate..

Jan 21, 2020

Great state if it weren't for the winters. I'm on my second winter here and this last big freeze has me honestly considering seppuku with an icicle

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Jan 19, 2020

Look for higher property taxes in all 3 states. They'll tax the one thing you can't take with you.

Jan 20, 2020

In the past few months Illinois politicians have vocally considered an exit tax and a birth tax......they will literally tax everything at some point.

Chicago is pretty awesome, but I'm pretty glad I've moved. Taxes their are pretty crazy and they're still structurally bankrupt.....it's going to spiral out of control.

twitter: @CorpFin_Guy

Jan 20, 2020
accountingbyday:

a birth tax......

Imagine what kind of people could hate babies. Just.....

Jan 21, 2020

I've seen a lot of non-Chicago based real estate investors be all like "how are these prices in Chicago so great". What they're missing is that there's basically a kleptocracy discount; whether through property tax or one of those other creative methods, they're gonna get extreme in shaking down residents.

Jan 21, 2020
PteroGonzalez:

Look for higher property taxes in all 3 states. They'll tax the one thing you can't take with you.

I mean, property taxes in California are effectively zero, which is why the income tax is so high.

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Jan 21, 2020

It's a prediction. It is not a statement of current rates.

Jan 20, 2020

Plenty to Texas and the Southeast (e.g. Atlanta). But I think plenty of those on the west coast are just moving a little further inland - to Denver, for example.

Jan 20, 2020

Who tf is moving to New Jersey lol that's like taking all of the bad of NY without having any of the redeeming aspect. Sad! A total mess!

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Jan 20, 2020

Many Chicagoans are moving to Indiana or Arizona.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
Jan 20, 2020

ASU girls are legit

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Jan 20, 2020

It's like every party girl from Naperville ended up there.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
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Jan 25, 2020

ASU girls are whores*

Buying tesla weeklies is literally free money.

Jan 20, 2020

Anywhere with more reasonable housing costs.

Jan 21, 2020

Hello....Nashville, Denver, Austin

not hubs for Finance jobs, but firms there are hiring talent
growing cities & economies
reasonable COL
people have more of a lifestyle focus, rather than just grinding at work
varying degrees of tech & start-up communities (obviously pales in comparison to SF)

Jan 21, 2020
Shrek2OnDVD:

"The three states have seen an exodus, but it's not all to Texas and it's not all about taxes.

New York, California and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents. Almost 3.2 million more people left those states for elsewhere in the U.S. than arrived from other states, from 2010 through 2019, according to population estimates released last week by the Census Bureau. Nine other states saw net out-migration of more than 100,000 people over that period, but none really came close to the big three."

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/202...

I'm not sure if this actually says anything of value? Especially considering two of the states are NY and CA, which are traditionally two of the highest (if not THE highest) net immigration states from out of the country. Moreover, they also happen to be places that new college graduates move since... you know, economic opportunity and all that. I am sure that thousands of bright young folks move into NYC after college every year, and a few years later leave for all sorts of reasons that have jack shit to do with taxes, homeless people, whatever. Maybe they're starting a family and moving to the suburbs, which includes northern NJ. Ditto places like LA or San Francisco.

Also, to address some points from previous conversations, its instructive to see where these folks are moving. No one seems to be super interested in moving to Alabama, and I wonder why? New Yorkers seem to like going to states like New Jersey and Connecticut, despite the fact that those aren't exactly low-tax environments.

Anyone with half a brain can see that most migration, at least in the case of NYC, has absolutely nothing to do with taxes. Of the numbers listed, 35% of New Yorkers left for states with essentially equal or higher state tax rates (CA, CT, NJ). And, of course, New York and New York City are not synonymous, and the long-term decline of upstate New York is well chronicled.

In other words, this is more shoddy reporting from Bloomberg.

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Jan 21, 2020

Phoenix seems legit.
ATL is looking like the move too but they have a serious sprawl problem.

I don't mind Philly either but I feel like most people here would not like it

Currently applying to medical school.
7 Acceptance so far

Jan 22, 2020
genes:

ATL is looking like the move too but they have a serious sprawl problem.

I mean - you can avoid that entirely by just choosing to live in town

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Feb 4, 2020

completely agree. I love Atlanta, it's a great place (maybe I even live there?) and very reasonably priced for all of the amenities, but just realize that ATL traffic is as bad as southern california. only other downside is if you're not a southerner, went to an SEC school, or like college football, expect it to take a while to get a nice social circle. while the not being from the south is easily overcome, you have GOT to jump on the SEC bandwagon if you want to make it in Atlanta (and a lot of Texas, I might add). for some reason, however, metros in Florida, NC, and TN (ok, Nashville) don't have this issue.

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Jan 23, 2020

As someone who lives in southern California, this is great news to me! Less people/drivers to clog up the streets. And maybe rents and other housing costs will finally go down.

Jan 23, 2020

Democrats increasing taxes..they'll learn at some point

What do you call an economist who forecasts? Wrong!

Jan 25, 2020

It's frustrating how much of Chicago's problems are caused by its own politicians. This city could easily have a population 1 million people bigger and also be as desirable and well-run as Toronto.

But it is just absolutely worn down by graft and corruption.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn
Jan 25, 2020

I'm surprised no one said Florida. People prefer a major centre with good weather, culture, and low taxes. We are already seeing hedge fund managers relocate from Connecticut because of taxes and weather.

Jan 25, 2020
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Feb 4, 2020