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Comments (4)

Feb 16, 2015 - 2:30pm

20-25% is in line with most estimates I've heard, including some official ones, if memory serves.

Let's take 25% as a worst case. That puts "fair value" at arnd 2.6 give or take, using my somewhat arbitrary methodology. So you could make 60% if uncertainty abt Grexit persists, but the panic subsides and things normalize. You could lose 100% if Grexit happens. You could make, say, 200% if Grexit is firmly off the table. For me, given that the most likely outcome is more brinkmanship and disagreement for a while yet, I don't like the payoff here. Just my Z$2c and I am not even sure I've done the exercise correctly...

Feb 16, 2015 - 4:51pm
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