How does Trump influence your opinion about RE developers / investors?

5 million's picture
Rank: King Kong | banana points 1,841

For the record: I'm anti-left, so this isn't some liberal rant.

Every time I listen to Trump I am astonished how incoherent he is and how we answers questions. He seems like a sub-120 IQ person to me. He simply does not sound like an intelligent person. I suspect some of this is due to an age related cognitive decline as I'll admit he does sound much better in earlier interviews in 1980s or 1990s.

Yet he was highly successful in real estate business. Does this change your perception of the field in some way?

Comments (86)

May 12, 2017

he does sound really dumb when he talks a lot of the times...

it doesn't change my opinion of real estate developers though. honestly, real estate, finance, investing, and a lot of other fields where people make a lot of money aren't rocket science. even Warren Buffet says you don't need to to be that smart to be as good an investor as he is.

i'm not really sure about his IQ.... i did watch a video about his intelligence once from a psychologist. one area he seems to be smart in is marketing/branding. he branded a lot of his opponents with difference names that his supporters really liked.

May 12, 2017

He was also born very rich. I think he must've been able to just get by on the success of his father. From getting into Wharton to winning deals and building relationships.

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May 12, 2017

I think it was already a known fact that anyone can make it in Real Estate. Think of all the people you know from highschool that are now residential realtors.

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May 12, 2017

what kind of person bases their opinion of the real estate industry on donald trump?

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May 12, 2017

Trump is a lot of things, but unintelligent is not one of them. One could argue that Trump is a polymath. He has been successful--wildly successful--in lots of areas--real estate, casinos, reality television, and politics. Heck, by all accounts, Trump has been a wildly successful father. Trump is just lazy when it comes to public policy. The key to being a great speaker or a really fluent speaker is to really know what you're talking about inside and out, and Trump clearly is not a student of public policy.

Take Obama off a teleprompter and he sounds as retarded as Trump.

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May 12, 2017

Lol you're a joke. Obama killed it when put on the spot, even more than when he had a teleprompter. I mean he was Churchhill on the teleprompter, but he had counter witty remarks and everything, as well as very unexpected interesting things to say. Partisanship is an emotion and I wouldn't my money with anyone that succumbs to their feelings like you or Trump.

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May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>iBankedUp</span>:

Lol you're a joke. Obama killed it when put on the spot, even more than when he had a teleprompter. I mean he was Churchhill on the teleprompter, but he had counter witty remarks and everything, as well as very unexpected interesting things to say. Partisanship is a feeling and I wouldn't my money with anyone that succumbs to their feelings like you or Trump.

I couldn't possibly disagree more with you. Obama was a famous stutterer when not using a script, which is why he is famous for using a teleprompter and rarely holding press conferences.

May 13, 2017

His casinos were garbage and went bankrupt, he screwed investors to get out without being burned. Kim Kardashian is successful at reality TV, has zero to do with intelligence. I'll give you politics if you define being successful as being elected, if you define it as actually getting out good policy or being a coherent leader, he's been shit. His real estate failures, of which he has many, are widely documented. If his daddy didn't bail him out a couple of times early in his career (so basically if he wasn't born filthy rich) he'd be done. Even with all the early help no one will currently lend to him, it certainly isn't because he's Stephen Ross or some shit.

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May 17, 2017

They weren't either garbage or great. What happened was his managers died in a helicopter crash and the businesses died without those experts to run the project.

May 13, 2017

Yes, Obama was a very poor public speaker without his teleprompter. This is common knowledge, not some right wing B.S.

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May 17, 2017

"Take Obama off a teleprompter and he sounds as retarded as Trump". You can argue that Obama isn't as effective without a teleprompter but by no means does he sound as retarded as Trump. Trump has said so many ludicrously stupid things which would have doomed any other person for any other job like how Obama directly created ISIS. Not that his actions caused ISIS to surge, but that he founded ISIS.

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May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>jackdonaghy26</span>:

"Take Obama off a teleprompter and he sounds as retarded as Trump". You can argue that Obama isn't as effective without a teleprompter but by no means does he sound as retarded as Trump. Trump has said so many ludicrously stupid things which would have doomed any other person for any other job like how Obama directly created ISIS. Not that his actions caused ISIS to surge, but that he founded ISIS.

No, Obama sounded pretty much like a retard off teleprompter, in a different way than Trump but equally as retarded.

May 18, 2017

Obama was a constitutional law professor - he had a deep grasp of legal and policy issues. Trump is broadly uneducated about these key issues. Those are just the facts.

Trump failed in business, except for his reality television stint - which does not take any level of intelligence. Politicians are frequently idiots that know how to appeal to their bases (see: almost everyone in the house). Are you going to argue that Kim Kardashian is a 'polymath' business genius too (reality television, games, branding - not that different from Trump except for real estate and politics).

May 12, 2017

Trump is alright if he actually thinks before he speaks

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May 12, 2017

A lot of success in the development area is contingent upon relationships. He was born with the best relationships possible, he is probably not a very high iq person but he is lucky enough where he doesn't have to be either.

May 12, 2017

Trump was not highly successful in the Real Estate business. He was a very public figure with a few trophy assets, a few high profile failures and a lot of marketing deals to use his name on other people's projects. He started rich and has maintained his wealth.

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May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>thomase7</span>:

Trump was not highly successful in the Real Estate business. He was a very public figure with a few trophy assets, a few high profile failures and a lot of marketing deals to use his name on other people's projects. He started rich and has maintained his wealth.

How do you define "highly successful"? Trump's a billionaire almost exclusively because of his real estate holdings. He did have a huge leg up when he started out in the late 1970's/early 1980's, but he survived the savings and loans crisis where many failed; he survived the deep early 1990's real estate collapse that destroyed many of the top real estate players of the day; and then he once again survived the 2008-2010 real estate collapse where again many of the top real estate players were destroyed. I honestly don't know how you could dispute Trump's success in real estate. Is he the greatest real estate mind of his generation? Of course not. But to dispute his success is just intellectually dishonest to the highest degree.

May 12, 2017

At the very least, "a few trophy assets" in NYC makes a real estate career a highly successful one.

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May 13, 2017

Trump was born rounding third base. His successes are far less a product of his ability than his environment. Arguably, his successes have little to do with real estate anyhow - he is a master at branding moreso than development.

That said, Trump's incoherent ramblings don't really impact my view on developers or real estate investors at all. You can't judge a group by only one of its members.

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May 13, 2017

Lol I love the people on here talking like Trump's father wasn't worth $400 million. This is another case of real estate nepotism and the rich getting extra credit for basically returning the s&p 500 on their money. This shit is a joke, Trump is clearly unintelligent and anyone arguing otherwise is just partisan. Comparing his accomplishments to that of Obama's or his intelligence to that of Obama's is just an exercise in willful obliviousness. All one has to do is listen to Trump in an interview and it's clear he has no idea wtf he's talking about. This is a guy that believes people are born with a finite amount of energy and doesn't exercise cuz he doesn't want that energy to run out. This is a guy who said global warming is a hoax perpetrated by China. To answer the original question, Trump has zero impact on how I view developers. He's just another case of a born with a diamond spoon in his mouth asshat, I expect I'll encounter alot of those in my lifetime.

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May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>BobTheBaker</span>:

Trump is clearly unintelligent and anyone arguing otherwise is just partisan. Comparing his accomplishments to that of Obama's or his intelligence to that of Obama's is just an exercise in willful obliviousness.

I'm sorry, what? What exactly were Obama's "accomplishments" prior to his election as President? Prior to Obama's TelePrompTer speech given at the 2004 DNC he was a completely unaccomplished person of no note--he even still had college debt at that juncture.

May 13, 2017

First of all @Dances with Dachshunds" what are you trying to imply? Obama graduated from Columbia then went on to Harvard where he became the first black president of the Harvard Law Review. He then started his career at a non-profit, served a few terms in the Illinois senate and then Christine Forester discovered him out of no where when he was a senator and launched his Presidential campaign, which was one of the most successful and invigorating campaigns in the country. Do people forget that some "nobody" came out of nowhere and beat John McCain - one of country's most decorated and most respected war veterans loved by independents and republicans?

Anyways...

Trump is going to have a negative impact on real estate professionals looking to pursue a political career. Everyone knows he was born into the 1% and had established relationships from his father. Relationships make RE developers. Like another person said Trump survived the last few real estate downturns. You know how he continued to operate huge projects consistently when most guys were forced to take their foot off the gas? It's because he's deeply connected to foreign banks and powerful and wealthy players abroad. He's likely connected to the same types of oligarchs who consolidated power after the fall of the USSR. The events of the last week, the lack of releasing his tax returns, his past (public) remarks regarding Russia, his conspiracy-type of misdirection, etc. all point to that sort of conclusion.

That's my theory and opinion anyways. But I suspect when he's forced out through resignation or impeachment, the public perspective for real estate guys pursuing political careers will change negatively. People will more-so view RE types as people who are shady, greedy, and connected to bad actors. But I don't think investors will shy away from real estate further. RE is now an acceptable class of assets for Wall Street and that won't change.

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May 13, 2017

He wasn't born rich and he didn't chase business so he had student loans therefore he hadn't accomplished anything. That's the implication.

May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>Surfing Pirate</span>:

<

p>First of all @Dances with Dachshunds what are you trying to imply? Obama graduated from Columbia then went on to Harvard where he became the first black president of the Harvard Law Review. He then started his career at a non-profit, served a few terms in the Illinois senate and then Christine Forester discovered him out of no where when he was a senator and launched his Presidential campaign, which was one of the most successful and invigorating campaigns in the country. Do people forget that some "nobody" came out of nowhere and beat John McCain - one of country's most decorated and most respected war veterans loved by independents and republicans?

Uhh, do you realize you just proved my point? You're saying Obama's primary accomplishment in life was getting into a prestigious college...And that his other accomplishment was getting elected by a small panel of like-minded liberals at HLS' law review. His actual pre-presidential accomplishments peeked in his mid-20s. As a state senator, he was unaccomplished and little known. (As an aside, I reject that idea that "getting elected" to anything is an accomplishment in itself--it suggests that the end is the election itself, and not the policy or leadership accomplishments. As a point of reference, there are 520,000 elected officials in the United States, so "being elected" to any office don't impress me much in itself. There's George Washington and there's Millard Fillmore--both men were not equally accomplished presidents.)

You literally said Christine Forester discovered Obama out of "nowhere"--that's my point. Obama had no accomplishments of note prior to his 2004 DNC speech. From there, starry-eyed liberals started throwing money at him, buying his autobiography that he wrote when he was, like, 30, allowing him to finally pay off his student loan debt. His 2 years(!) as a U.S. Senator were almost entirely without accomplishments of note.

If going to an Ivy League school is accomplishment enough in life, then 10-15% of WSO can simply go home--or get ready for the Democrats to support his or her nomination for president.

If you're being intellectually honest, Barack Obama had the lightest pre-Presidential resume maybe in American history (although I'm not an expert in 19th-century presidencies).

May 13, 2017

the OP forget that while IQ is important, the ability to emotionally connect with his audience is FAR more important to one's success. and let's not forget, he won the election.

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May 13, 2017

It doesn't because no one person should allow you to form an opinion on a group of people.

The answer to your question is 1) network 2) get involved 3) beef up your resume 4) repeat -happypantsmcgee

WSO is not your personal search function.

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May 13, 2017

IQ is mentioned a lot in this thread. A wise man once said "I possess something greater than a high IQ...common sense and self esteem"

One can certainly argue if Trump has common sense. A high IQ does not define an individual in my mind. Some of the highest IQ's on the planet are these master chess players and they can barely figure out the cross walk button. It's not a bad thing to have a high IQ, but by itself it does nothing if you have no common sense and/or the self esteem necessary to take action.

Trump, with all of his flaws, and it's obvious he has many, is a person of action. He's a grinder...

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May 17, 2017

I agree that the IQ argument is stupid but Trump has had one of the least effective starts to a Presidency in recent memory. He hasn't passed a single piece of legislation, and the budget was 95% of what Democrats wanted. He may be a grinder, but he hasn't actually done anything of any value besides sign executive actions (which Obama was called a tyrant for doing).

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May 15, 2017

I'm more of a liberal politically and I'm not a fan of the POTUS and his policies and world view.

However, my admiration for Donald Trump was one of my top three (early) reasons for entering the field and eventually working in development. I read his book Art of the Deal in high school. I played Sim City 2000 for hours and hours. And I liked Dealmaking in the movie Thomas Crowne Affair. I thought the Donald looked cool coming out of a limo at a construction job site with a suit and tie and a hard hat. And yelling at people. I thought that was so cool.

Anyways, real estate you need capital. To get capital, the impression is you had to convince people with money to give you money. The conventional wisdom is you have to be pretty smart to get money, especially when capital is scarce.

I guess what changed in my mind is the notion that attracting capital might not be because you are smart, but also unethical. It is one thing to make money and it's another to sell out your country. It remains to be seen what comes out of the potential criminal allegations in the news, but seeing our prez and the more recent businesses like Trump Univ, seems like that detracts from my earlier admiration for the man. This also means there is a lot more to this world that I have yet to learn. Begs the question how far you would be willing to go to be rich.

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May 12, 2017
<span itemprop=name>odog808</span>:

I guess what changed in my mind is the notion that attracting capital might not be because you are smart, but also unethical.

Unrelated to Trump, but generally speaking, people with poor ethics struggle to raise money for real estate deals over the long-term.

May 15, 2017

Not if you're slangin' that baller EB-5 money...

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May 17, 2017
5 million:

For the record: I'm anti-left, so this isn't some liberal rant.Every time I listen to Trump I am astonished how incoherent he is and how we answers questions. He seems like a sub-120 IQ person to me. He simply does not sound like an intelligent person. I suspect some of this is due to an age related cognitive decline as I'll admit he does sound much better in earlier interviews in 1980s or 1990s.Yet he was highly successful in real estate business. Does this change your perception of the field in some way?

Guys, I think OP's IQ is 120. Just a hunch...

May 17, 2017

Only thing I have to say about your post:

Don't confuse being able to communicate well with idiots and actually being an idiot. I'm actually a bit envious of him because I suspect I would have been much more succesful in some previous jobs had I had that skill.

May 19, 2017

Why hasn't licensing been brought up? The dude made millions licensing trump to developers/operating companies looking for a name. Dude made a couple millions in FL during recession licensing his name to groups that wanted the name. No at risk money, upfront money, etc. If anything his licensing business is what makes him successful in spite of real estate.

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May 13, 2017
<span itemprop=name>1901Monkey</span>:

Why hasn't licensing been brought up?

It has. Read the thread.

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May 26, 2017

DT pretty much confirms everything Ive thought about real estate developers since i first started underwriting.

May 13, 2017
dr_mantistoboggan_MD:

DT pretty much confirms everything Ive thought about real estate developers since i first started underwriting.

Why? He's a terrible example of one

May 26, 2017

When Melania slapped the presidents hand that changed everything.

May 26, 2017

.

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Best Response
May 26, 2017

This is a non political but economics response to your comment.
Is this a joke...
There aren't enough illegals in c/d multifamily properties to make a dent in occupancy, most are transient and live with friends/family that are here legally.
You realize that if your expenses go up due to wage increases then your returns will not go up when you push rents.
Per your development theory wouldn't renovation projects not be possible due to a lack of illegal labor...
MF development will slow because of construction lending. I assume you're trying to say it would slow because of a lack of labor, if so I think you misestimate the share of illegals in mf construction, this would have a greater impact on sf construction (which would clash with Trump's desire to increase homeownership, again creating a deadlock in his stated policies).

In regards to interest rates and cap rates I will not begin to pretend like I know what will happen, if I knew that I wouldn't be here typing this, I'd be in tahiti watching strippers count my money while my monkey builds a house of gold bricks.

Edit:
I just saw the thread below, in which I realized you are a rocket scientist:

9/6/15 "While you're at it, please explain how leverage and CF works"

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/5-caps-what-...

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May 13, 2017
Build the Wall:
  • higher vacancies in C+D class apartments (deportation of illegals - thank god)
  • carried interest will be taxed as regular income
  • lower immigration levels will put pressure on wages especially for maintenance crews (this will be a boon for the economy as a whole)
  • higher wage growth will make it easier to raise rents and push through positive value add renovation projects. some renters may choose to "trade up" going from a B class building to an A- or so
  • better economy/wage prospects will allow more people to buy homes. lower cost markets will be most impacted here
  • MF development will probably slow do to lower immigration levels (again - thank god)
  • interest rates will go up due to better economic prospects/higher inflation. i don't think cap rates will move up as much as treasuries will because so much money is being poured in RE. buyers will have to accept lower returns. we have seen spreads staying about the same since wednesday so far.

Trump defined his campaign by doing more with less. On a dollar per vote basis he outperformed each opponent (Jeb is the most egregious example). I think Trump will cut the waste out of government and bring better efficiency to government which will result is lower spending without having to do anything too drastic like shutting down the EPA, HUD or the Dept of Edu, as much as I would to see that.

Actually Lol'ing at my desk.

1) Your assumption about C+D apartments is ridiculous .

2) The immigration issue affects wages of those who are uneducated. A non-insured contractor who may or may not be a legal citizen pushes wages down from other non-accredited laborers (like the guy you went to high school who never graduated high school but works with his hands all day as a craigslist handyman). This also affect other industries where low wages can paid because there's enough labor out there willing to work for below minimum wage. Your boy, President Trump took advantage of this during his time as a real estate developer, i guarantee it. If immigrants get pushed out, you'll see an increase in wages for the low income, uneducated class. But it is not a benefit like you think. All of these people buy groceries, clothes, electronics, etc. You'll see businesses hurt from loss of spending.

See: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/09/immigran...
3) Pushing a lot of skilled laborers out of the country will make it even more expensive to do construction and rehab.

4) Higher wage growth supports rent increase, duh. But if you just made an argument that - 'Less illegals -> less construction labor -> lower supply, thus higher wages -> Laborers upgrading to Class A households' - .... you're very wrong.

I think what will happen is, the economy is going to be absolutely hot for a few years. Trump will spend (borrow) money like no one's business to "grow the economy".

What will then happen is a huge recession years 3-6 as the economy inevitably reaches a tipping point and crashes hard. He wants to cut high income earner taxes and increase spending for stupid projects like a building a wall on the border that you can just dig a tunnel into a vacant warehouse in San Diego, Yuma, or Texas (new tunnels pop up all the time) and also increasing military spending even when we outspend the next 10 largest countries combined. It's funny when people on the far right cry about the nation's debt levels even when Obama increased the debt by 68% while Reagan and GWBush increased the USA debt levels by 186% and 101%. Can't wait to see a 100-200% increase by a President Trump...

edit: my points about the construction market is relevant with refuting OP's post around immigration. Of course, with large increases of infrastructure spending, the construction industry will see higher employment and wages.

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May 26, 2017

As a third year analyst I'm baffled by you're lack of comprehension of Econ 101.

I don't want to sound like I'm jumping on the band wagon of this thread by saying your statements are.. weak, maybe uninformed?.. but this reasoning is what gives supporters of trump a bad image. I mean shit, sometimes it's embarrassing, to the point of just keeping my mouth shut, to say I support some of trumps policy ideas and hope he can be successful, because people like you have crowded out reasonable thought with uniformed bombast.

Out of curiosity, what markets do you work in and what's the property type/class?

May 13, 2017
Apartments:

Donald Trump has become the first billionaire ever to be elected President in the history of the US.

Is he though?

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May 26, 2017
CRE:

Apartments:Donald Trump has become the first billionaire ever to be elected President in the history of the US.

Is he though?

No he is not if previous POTUS's net worth was translated to todays economy.

He also will be the 3rd POTUS to not take a salary.

Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.

May 26, 2017

The industry will get a lot more competitive, now with the preftigious exit ops and all

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May 26, 2017

In real time as I have seen this past week and today; a lot of buyers on potential dispositions have become increasingly quiet although we are days away from going hard.
There is undoubtedly short term disruption; 10 Yr treasuries are up and buyers who have not locked in debt, pre-election, are finding themselves with thinning spreads. They are essentially playing roulette with treasuries hoping to recoup the unrealized gains from lower IRs by waiting it out.

May 12, 2017

If you double economic growth rate you will not incur higher and higher deficits. Not saying that will happen, just commenting on OP's statement that you'll see more deficits even if doubling economic growth.

May 26, 2017

It's going to be great. We're all going to do very well and be so proud!

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May 26, 2017

All this talk about blowing up the deficit and national debt but no discussion about what seems to be a potentially lucrative Ayn Randian scheme to fund at least a portion of the planned infrastructure improvement with private investment. This has been all over the news. If the investments are being made in income-producing projects with potential for tax breaks (airports, utilities, etc.) then why not? It's probably incorrect to draw the logical progression Trump does real estate>Trump uses lots of leverage for real estate>Trump will use lots of leverage to make America Great Again. Even if/when the national debt balloons it will have more to do with Paul Ryan and a republican-controlled congress than Trump and his history of leveraged real estate deals.

@Build The Wall your claims are ludicrous to the extent I think you might be kidding. To say that deportation of illegals is unanimously a boon to the economy is not founded in empirical evidence whatsoever and your proposition that new MF development will slow due to lower immigration levels is patently absurd. To what extent is new MF development in aggregate catering to the needs of poor transient workers who you decisively assert are driving down wages?

May 26, 2017

The government's cost of capital is substantially lower than private funding. It's hard to be even in the ball park competitively. Look around the country and private toll roads that are on the verge of BK, as an example. It's nice in theory but hasn't work. Not only do these current/prior failure further increase the risk profile and thus cost of capital it reduces the pool of investors willing to deploy capital. It's way to simple to say "oh just privately fund".

May 26, 2017

Listen up all you Filthy Liberals, bickering above.

Trump is going to Build a Wall.
It's going to be so Big and so Beautiful, that supply of construction materials will be in shortage. Costs of RE will go up immensely.

That is how you know Trump loves America. He's doing what's right, even when doing what's right isn't the same thing as doing what's easy.

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May 26, 2017

That monkey sh*t is proof of media bias and a corrupt administration.

May 26, 2017

What Trump said while at his campaing, sounded like he was willing to actually make the economy get bolder (and quite like stronger). It sounded just like that. I never studied how he was behaving after he came back at the spot. After he re-emerged I just watched him getting more and more on the general media, and it was that. He won..

I mean, I only heard he have a lot of debt that he didn't care about...What I actually know is that he likes to invent his way. And this is where he is able to be not a genius, but to put smart moves at play. I simply don't think he ever made sense, for the overall common sense, or anything common-related. Nor would he be accepted by intellectuals, or even business researchers, because of some of his points of view...

I just think he is a tryharder. He tried everything, including being a liberal. You can't predict what he'll do. Nobody could do it either.

Well, I do have some ways to predict his behavior. But, for what I could say right now...He will actually try hard at every available resources to do what he promissed (and as for RE, he partially shows that he wasn't caring at all about it when he took politics at the table, but I'll analyse if he actually does so. Because if he do so, it looks like the economy may be able in a medium-term, to make like, a lot of billionaires and it will not actually be in a common way, but only if a revolution... and so so). But, if he will actually be competent at doing so, it is a matter of analysys. And analysys which I could actually do at his personality (I study it since 2010, and I can aufere it just by looking and reflecting about somone, in less than half an hour).

So, if I get the time, the interest and to remember it...if I realy care to do it. I'll be abble to do it like until the next week ends...For this matter doesn't deserve my generally busy attention.

I have an interest at what will actually be (if predictable) something about the country's future.
If interested anybody could suggest names of relevant politicians at the house of representatives.

I'll include Paul Ryan at my analysys list. I'll also include anyone who could put relevant pressure uppon him. And maybe I'll be able to calculate some possibilities on the natural bahavior "mechanics" that could outcome from this whole situation.

As for what I think is possible to the economy...Well, I'd be hated if I said something in his favor( even if I don't actually feel that I'm at his very side)...I'll just leave that for people who are more politically correct than me.

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May 26, 2017

What the fuck did you just say?

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May 13, 2017

Give me what ever this guy is taking

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May 13, 2017

Trump is unpredictable to say the least. He's probably not going to build a dang wall. He's probably going to ignite some growth for a while. Rates could be up by 1% over the next 12mo. That will have significant impact on cap rates across all asset classes.

Anyone on a LIBOR ARM better hold on. LIBOR could be up by 2pts in 12mo...it's so volitile.

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May 26, 2017

I'll never understand these questions. The whole point of any critical analysis is to adapt to the situation at hand while assessing various outcomes instead of focusing on one certainty based on a biased assumption. You won't get any certain answers from CRE professionals in regards to this. They may be smart, but they don't have a crystal ball buddy.

Just as how you wouldn't have gotten any substantiated answers from asking finance or political professionals in determining the presidential or BREXIT outcome. Nobody FUCKING knows.

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May 13, 2017

My understanding of Trumps infrastructure spending is that it is not to be leveraged. Now, I'll believe it when I see it. Supposedly he has a plan on offering tax credits for those companies or people that spend their own money to repair our infrastructure.

Yes, the last trillion spent on infrastructures "shovel ready jobs", went up in smoke.

May 26, 2017
May 26, 2017

As far as US real estate goes, I think in the short term impacts will be positive across a lot of asset classes. Assuming you have fixed rate debt and your interest cost doesn't go up for a few years, inflation should be good for underlying valuation and good for landlords and rents. I don't think that a moderate pickup in interest rates will have a big impact on cap rates. If Trump's tax policies get through, most notably giant tax cuts for the wealthy, I think you'll see the high end residential market bounce back. I also think you'll see better revpar growth in the high end hospitality sector, across business and tourist hotels. As the rich get more liquid, they're more inclined to skip the sheraton and stay at the Ritz. I also think airlines will be strong on this basis (and indeed Buffet just made an investment in the sector which is very rare) - I personally will be more inclined to fly first/business more regularly if my taxes come down by the enormous amount they will if Trump's tax plan gets through.

As far as international markets, its more complicated. Most of Trump's policies point to higher interest rates and growth rates in the States, which means dollar strength. Therefore, if you're a USD investor looking to place capital abroad, you need to be very cognizant of currency risks. This is not just in China, but also in eurozone, UK and Japan. Commodity exporting countries that have been hit lately, namely Australia, could benefit from increased demand for copper and whatnot so you might see better strength in currencies there, but generally you're going to need to be more careful.

May 12, 2017

I don't think the core of Trump's tax plan is "tax cuts for the rich." I think it's corporate income tax cuts and individual tax simplification.