Obviously this coronavirus thing could change things dramatically but assuming Trump has a normal economy what do you think will happen?
I think his tarrifs are going to be very popular in midwestern states and he'll pull some democratic votes. I also think Biden is going to be like Hillary in 2016 and lose a lot of progressive votes.
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You don't have to guess.
Here are national polling averages. Biden runs away with it, and these haven't fully taken into account both Trump's handling of the Covid-19 Crisis or the state of the economy, which looks to be barreling toward recession. Now, national polling is important, but is not a pure predictor of the election. We all remember Hillary winning the popular vote but Trump winning the election. So, you look to important swing states:
Florida leans Trump slightly.
Wisconsin leans Biden slightly.
Michigan seems pretty strong for Biden right now.
Pennsylvania is a bit all over the place, but either leans Biden or looks strong for Biden.
North Carolina looks strong for Biden.
Arizona looks a lot like PA - between leaning Biden and strong for Biden.
Ohio is looking strong for Biden.
Texas is very strong for Trump. Any talk of flipping it seems incredibly premature.
Minnesota is a blowout for Biden.
Georgia looks a lot like Texas. Any hope of turning it blue there is way overblown.
THEN, you can use this tool to simulate the results. By using the information above and making some minor assumptions about the split states, I come to:
Biden: 317
Trump: 214
Essentially, the opposite of Trump's defeat of Clinton.
Now, I'm sure I'll grab some monkey shit for this since I'm no fan of our current President, but it's important to remember a few things.
Numbers are not partisan.
Many of the polls are within the margin of error.
We have a long way to go.
We are in the middle of a black swan event - a pandemic. This could dramatically reduce turnout, which would help Trump. This could continue to tank the economy, which would help Biden. One, or both of, these geriatric men could catch the coronavirus and have a serious reaction. A million other things could happen that would impact the numbers.
Bang on, @CRE
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