How long do you think work from home will last? My office (PE firm in NYC) is closed through the end of the year, but think it will get pushed back. I've heard some friends estimating Labor Day 2021. Do you think that remote work will be more accepted post-COVID?
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Until December-ish
To some degree, forever. Current employer is frantically trying to get out of office space leases and is cutting office space by 75% in one country. New way of working will involve working from home vast majority of time. Save a ton of $ and don’t can talk about being green from not commuting.
Agreed. I think most companies will have employees in the office by summer 2021 just to build morale and culture but office buildings still won’t be 100% occupied. Probably 40%-50% occupied until COVID is no longer a serious threat. Even when we are no longer in a pandemic, I foresee employers allowing all employees to WFH for at least 1 day a week. Saves time and money for both the employee and employer.
One of the complaints I've seen from junior employees is that instead of "work from home" its more "live at work" as in the distinction between work and life is even more blurred. By being WFH, you do save the commute, can dress casual, etc. However, if its hybrid, won't it be the worst of both worlds? Work in the office and then prob get home and expected to crank something out quick after you leave too?
Physical occupancy by Vornado and Related in NYC is about 8%, clearly not counting leases.
Large companies in NYC have continued to lease and renegotiate space. Some companies will be 50/50 starting January, we should likely(who knows) be back 100% in Summer 2021.
Respectfully, 100% by summer is highly unlikely. You do realize that is 7-8 months away. Our cases are surging right now. Most likely to continue until January-February. I see a partial return to the office with increases in capacity over time, as public health improves.
Biden won. We will be in masks and locked down forever. Cannot risk my 95 year old grandma dying. Wfh is your new reality
It’s the new normal yaaaaaass...mask UP!
Hot take - wfh will be permanent until 2022 and potentially remain like that in the long term. I am getting crushed but I do not have to talk to the other analysts and smile at my overweight cuck vp.
Are people planning to move out of the city until WFH is lifted? I know most analysts seem to be back at their parent's place (at least for a few months lol) to save some cash and VPs+ have families in the nyc area so they stay, but I am curious to see what other people at the associate level are doing.
Probably ~2/3 of associates on my team are not in NYC right now, they are bunking with friends in a house somewhere.
Well if these people get their way, then perhaps forever?
as with most things on this earth, the truth is somewhere in the middle. my firm has begun inviting employees who want to come back, to come back. they rushed our NYC staff back quicker than branch offices (understandably so), but I'd say occupancy in my area is less than 10%. for any traders, PWMers, or anyone with a S66 registration, the SEC and FINRA will have final say. it will come down to firms ability to adequately supervise employees before any regulations change. I don't think either extreme is helpful so assuming regulators come around, I see firms being much more flexible, and if I had it my way, I'd never go into the office unless we had an all-team meeting or a client appointment
Realistically, this opens up mid-level with family to more easily live in NJ, NY suburbs, or BK and come into the office when needed. I don't think we're there yet (a la tech) to allow full relocation long term. Would be interested to hear if any firms are moving toward that.
Most companies will return by next year (January 2021), but others have extended up to July next year
My firm said they are looking at Labor Day 2021
It is going to vary wildly across the spectrum. I've been back since summer. My fiancee won't be back until next summer, and even then they told her it won't be every day.
I'm slated to be back on a rotational basis by April 2021...although it feels like HR emails us a different timeline every week so TBD. My friends in finance and law range from February to July, and those in tech don't have to come in until the end of next summer (if ever). In all cases, if we feel "uncomfortable" we do not have to come in, but some MDs are pushing people pretty hard to get back asap. Assuming the vaccine rollout isn't a colossal failure, I wonder if employers will try to bring people back sooner.
bump - any updates?
Would not expect to be back in office until after this summer, fall if you're lucky (and wanting to go back) but realistically think it'll probs be winter 2021/2022. If I was a betting man would wager January 2022.
"The best case scenario is that the all US adults who want a vaccine can get one by the mid to late summer, according to Dr. Vivek Murthy, who incoming president Joe Biden has tapped to be US surgeon general. Right now, the US has secured 400 million doses of the two most effective vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, which could inoculate about 200 million Americans, but about half of those won’t be available until August." from QZ article published this week
That's an interesting thought, and probably the furthest out I've heard so far. Right now my office is scheduled for Jun-Labor Day.
Based in southeast. My office has been back in since August..
Bump,
Seems like the vaccine is gaining momentum. Curious if this well shorten timelines.
Curious about the well as well
Not sure. Considering that some variants are making certain vaccines less effective, there will likely be continued R&D effort to generate more vaccines as new strains emerge. As a result, I don't think it'll be safe for the vast majority of people to return full time to the office for a couple of years. Perhaps in 9-12 months a good number of people will have (and maybe take) the choice to benefit from a hybrid work from home/office scheme (2-3 days in each). If vaccine timelines surpass those of variants, then we can likely vaccinate everyone. If instead COVID-19 becomes a flu-like situation (looking more probably every dat) with new strains and vaccines each year, then we will likely not return to the office full time for the foreseeable future. Like someone else mentioned in a comment, work from home or a partial system with both work settings is probably here to stay.
my office is still at 10-20% capacity even though our area is doing pretty well with vaccinations and case count. just got a note the other day from management basically saying nothing substantive before summer
Spring 2022
Has your bank said anything or is this a guess?
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