How many ideas do you generate per week/month?
Interested to hear how many ideas people generate per week/month > then how many they pitch or move forward on to ultimately put money behind?
Interested to hear how many ideas people generate per week/month > then how many they pitch or move forward on to ultimately put money behind?
Career Resources
Also really curious. At a single manager as an analyst, do you usually generate your own ideas to pitch or is it the PM asking you to look into his/her ideas?
Both and ratio b/w the two will depend on the track record and experience of the analyst.
Bump
.
Here is my perspective since no one is chiming in.
Summary: One great idea every quarter, sometimes only two a year. A handful (2-5) of good ideas a quarter, small bets usually are positioning into earnings. I tend not to view these as idea generation, but I thought I’d throw it out there since I’m sure some PM would view it as idea generation.
Caveat, I manage a concentrated portfolio of energy equities so my universe, portfolio and benchmark is very focused. I work closely with my analyst. If he has a strong view on something, I act on it, either putting cash to work or pulling it out. I’ll decide weight with his input, but 9/10 times if he makes a call I’m on board. We are long only with a very concentrated benchmark. While our IPS prevents shorting, we will take large bets on index heavy items (being zero weight 400-1000 bps single security positions in the benchmark).
I’d say that my goal is for my analyst and I to have one or two great ideas a quarter, and if we are working on something really big then it might be the only major idea for half a year. Why a quarter? Some of the bigger bets (not trades) can take months to flush out the research, given all the other noise to deal with. We will make quarterly bets (I view this more as trading) for sure, and those are good ideas but they aren’t going to be large exposures (call it +\- 100 bps per security up to 25% of the portfolio). Usually these positions start coming together halfway through a quarter all the way to, and through, reporting. So there could be no new ideas for a month and a half and if not much has changed and positions are fine it could be a 3-4.5 month drought. Sometimes doing nothing is the right call.
And to be clear, we will spend a ton of time on a decision that might be to do nothing, or take something to a maximum weight. For example, the index has several stocks over 400 bps in weight. If we think one of those is a real POS with a 30%+ downside risk base on our research we, obviously, won’t put cash to work but we will start pushing out or findings to the sell-side to try to wake them up to the looming disaster (judged based on relatively performance).
Hope this helps. Ultimately it depends on the PMs style. I’m happy with small wins when there isn’t much going on, but I definitely want one or two big calls in a year.
Thanks a lot, always enjoy your insights!
There's always a misconception about how funds run so I'm going to add a little more color here. It's not about speed and percentage of ideas that get put on. Both of these are functions of experience and track record of the analyst. What is important though, is that the research process is correct from the very beginning for an up and coming analyst and eventually both speed and accuracy will increase with time.
I'm a Senior Analyst at a low-net, single manager L/S shop, sector specialist.
For me, about one new fleshed out idea every 1.5 - 3 weeks ready for internal discussion. If it's earnings season it could be 3 weeks. Doesn't matter if the name is put on or not, it's about doing the work right. If we think the research is right then it will eventually be put on and it will have a chance to make money and at worst, come out flat or losing a little. More often than not, one single, deep researched idea results in a pair-trade and deeper insight into a particular market landscape, yielding 2 actionable items on the portfolio level and 1 - 2 new idea leads. Speed and accuracy increase with experience, mainly due to pattern recognition. Obviously the faster and more accurate/usable a model/idea the better, but sometimes the process of building out the granular parts of a model for one company will be longer than the other. This could vary between a few days to an extra two weeks. Can't sacrifice quality for speed.
For analysts, the point is to cover a sector to the best of one's ability and model out each name, then pick the top winners to long and losers to short. Prioritization here is important and being able to generate ideas that have the best risk/reward, mispricing, and eventual alpha within a predefined time horizon comes with experience. Generally, Junior analysts or analysts coming straight out of IB are not given the responsibility to generate ideas but assist in the research of ideas generated by Sr. analysts or PM's.
Each stock/idea will have it's fully built model with a short and concise memo. The investment memos can be 3 bullet points or just 2-3 sentences. Keep it short and concise because we go through the model line-by-line, assumption by assumption, and let the excel analysis do the talking. Daily conversation within the team is regarding newsflow for current positions and debate why we may have to prioritize x name versus y to carry out deep research on as well as updates on on-going research. This process repeats itself until we fully exhaust our opportunity set. We think a consistent idea velocity and accuracy is important here and this is where some HF's may vary from Long-only shops. Being able to short individual names essentially doubles the opportunity set and workload. An idea that was passed on by a LO may very well be a short for the HF. This is even more so for low-net & market neutral L/S shops.
Most of the ideas will eventually be in the book given the stock reaches our predefined price for optimal margin of safety to go long or go short. No neutral ratings, it's either a buy or a sell. We let the market come to us for entry points. Some names may take weeks or months to reach our predefined risk/reward profile and we monitor this very closely, especially when putting on shorts. If it never reaches our target entry price for an attractive risk/reward, that's fine as we want to minimize our chances of getting blown-out of a position. In this case, there's a review on what we may have missed in our research process and then we move on to the next name. This is better than coming up with a stock's fair value that is inherently wrong because of poor/careless research due to pressure to generate performance. Not putting on an idea that will generate PnL for the quarter or semi-annually (usually no longer) is fine as long as the research is done thoughtfully and correctly as we look at 2-3 year time frames for our longs and 6-months to 1 year for our shorts. Having no ideas that make money within a time of more than half a year to a year means there's something wrong with the research process of a particular analyst and that we have to review as a team why this happened and what needs to be done to improve. Consistently wrong views are less probable because each idea's model and core assumptions are reviewed in detail and debated amongst the team. If an internal consensus can not be reached on what a fair value for a stock is due to a factor that we just can't figure out, then we don't put on the idea. We try to minimize this occurrence during the idea generation process as not having an actionable item after research is essentially an opportunity cost.
There is a list of already well-researched ideas (targets) for us to pull the trigger when the stock hits our entry prices, so a consistent flow of well-researched ideas is preferable for optimal use of time, but again, can not sacrifice quality. Consistent does not mean fast. A proper fund will already know the level of an analyst and delegate the correct level of responsibility to give along with the correct expectations. This is why speed isn't really an issue and whereby accuracy is a must. Though we can't fall behind on building out new names, or else we're essentially losing out on new opportunities. Steady, consistent, and accurate work. Overall fund idea velocity will essentially function on the size and experience of the investment team and in reality, it's about being accurate and fast, not one or the other. The faster we churn out accurate, properly researched ideas, the more opportunities we have to generate higher returns. Early bird gets the worm, so the saying goes.
Thanks for sharing, very informative
Im an analyst who now is approaching two years of HF exp post banking. This was super helpful for me to contextualize things generally. Thanks! SB’d
I'm on the quant side so always curious to how PM/analysts work on the fundamental side. When you say low-net does your PM try to stay flat to most Barra/Axioma factors or sometimes you are happy to take on factor exposure?
Friends that work as sector analysts at MM tell me that they have strict exposure limits to factors which means vast majority of trades are pairs, is this the case for you too or are there opportunities to put ideas into the book that are a lone position?
This is very helpful. Thx!
Thanks for this detailed post.
I’m curious in your experience, how effective is the broader team review/debate of trade ideas? I work at very similar style fund, and one issue I’ve started to notice is that by definition the lead analyst knows the specific company/sub sector better than everyone else on the team, so sometimes it’s challenging to get useful feedback from the broader team.
I try to generate one idea a week. The name of the game is a .51 batting average and so the more idea velocity you have the more chances you have to make money.
Incidunt eius necessitatibus repellat dolorem. Sunt aperiam nesciunt eos quas. Eum et consequatur veritatis voluptas. Quam voluptas voluptate inventore atque aspernatur sit dignissimos incidunt.
Non minus ullam quibusdam. Laudantium iure ducimus et cum. Aspernatur nulla fugit perferendis id praesentium sit nesciunt tempore.
Fuga laborum nam odit voluptates excepturi. Cupiditate nobis asperiores rerum eveniet quod expedita. Voluptatum consequatur placeat quia sint excepturi repellat. Iste omnis et vel iure veniam.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...