How to get projections/forecasts for a listed company if the company has not provided any projections?

Hi all,

I am a 1st year analyst with a Private Investor, I have studied in South Africa and pursued a double major in Finance and Economics, at present I am a CFA Level 1 Candidate. I am currently working in India gaining exposure to the Indian Markets. Considering, that now I am practically on the job, I needed some help please, (kindly note this is not a highly matured or professional outfit we have access to only public domain knowledge/information and limited other resources/databases; I am the only equities analyst) I have been generating Reports for Listed Companies on the BSE and NSE based on a set of predefined parameters which I helped design from various sources that I am mandated to analyse the companies' current and past financials with. (P/E;NPAT;TREND ANALYSIS/SALES/SALES GROWTH; MICRO/MACRO INDICATORS; ABOUT THE COMPANY; CAPACITY UTILISATION etc)

The reports have been going well but I figured using only current and historic data from AR's is not a rigorous enough analysis and not an application of my complete financial knowledge; furthermore it is not giving us a concrete result on the over or under valuation prospects of the company. I know how to use the DCF and its variations and can arrive at an FCFF given a certain EBITDA with the necessary steps, or can use it given a projected FCFF however this is the part I am struggling with, I do not have access to any databases like Bloomberg/Reuters etc and hence do not have access to any forecasted EBITDA's or projections of any kind, what I'm asking is how is this forecasting done in the real world, must I make my own growth assumptions and grow the EBITDA and its associated figures to then arrive at a projected FCFF? (this will also skew WACC should I be wrong) or do Companies do these projections and put them out somewhere on the public domain for analysts to work with? or do I have to manually forecast everything?

I am seeking out a long term career in finance and am very passionate about the industry especially PE, although this isn't the best start to my career, it is a beginning and I'd like to use the experience to grow my knowledge and become fully aware of exactly how things should be done or are being done to improve my reporting conviction and judgement. I have not done any Financial Modelling courses as yet as circumstance has not allowed for it, is this something I should consider in the medium term?

Thank you and would really appreciate any help.

Regards,
Arjun.

Comments (1)

Mar 22, 2018