How Will The Upcomming Bernie Sanders Presidency Affect the Finance Industry and American Marketplace?

I have a strong belief Bernie is going to sweep the remaining primaries and general election and become the next President. He will lose moderates and retirement age boomers to Donald Trump but take unprecedented amounts of the populist vote (the disgruntled rabble) away from him.

Assume this happens and Congress swings to a liberal majority in both houses. What are the effects on the finance industry and/or American business in general? Negligible with a slight stock market decline and marginal tax increase? Everyone quits their job and becomes a welfare stoner? We all get to run up a free tab on Bezos and Gates' credit cards with minimal economic blowback?

Curious to hear everyone's take.

 

The thing that you have to remember is that politicians are largely just hot air. Bernie doesn't know how money and banking works, he couldn't "rein in Wall Street", whatever he means by that, if he tried.

What is he going to do, make it illegal to pay for IPO help? I guess theoretically he could levy a special tax against fees paid as a result of financial advisory but good luck getting that passed and that would probably also force him and Congress to understand what investment bankers actually do and subsequently realize in the process there's really no benefit to making it more expensive for American companies to raise capital.

 
Nudnick McMooch:
I have a strong belief Bernie is going to sweep the remaining primaries and general election and become the next President.

Odd. As a liberal, I'm far more convinced that if he is nominated, it's 4 more years of Trump.

Commercial Real Estate Developer
 
Most Helpful

Key elements of Sanders understanding of economics: -there are no freeloaders in societies -profits should be eliminated and wages should be high up to the point of almost bankruptcy for business -if the rich runs away because of high taxes, it's ok to tax the middle class to death -mass amnesties for illegal immigrants and free shit for everyone

100% success guaranteed from economics profs at Harvard etc. What could possibly go wrong?

As for finance, he has already stated you'll pay for the student debt, so that new generations can be trained to be socialists in your universities. I personally can't wait he makes part of his healthcare plan forcing Christians to pay for pre-teen gender transition.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.
 

Nothing crazy will happen. Trump is a populist like Bernie who promised a ton of things that did not come to fruition despite having Republicans controlling both houses of Congress in his first two years as President. Even a Democrat controlled government following the GFC did not destroy the financial industry or nationalize industries at a time when people's confidence in the economy reached a low point. When you consider that maybe 10 or so Democrats in Congress think like Bernie it's very realistic to assume that he will not get any major legislation passed, very much like his time in Congress. Without support from his party, no major policy will be written and executive orders can only go so far. Anyone preparing for a doomsday scenario is kidding themselves

I’m a fun guy. Obviously I love the game of basketball. I mean there’s more questions you have to ask me in order for me to tell you about myself. I'm not just gonna give you a whole spill... I mean, I don't even know where you're sitting at
 

I don't think Bernie can beat Trump. Trump is going to use socialism against Bernie, and many moderates might flip to Trump, seeing that Bernie is the most left leaning politician in modern American history.

 
mjbanker:
I don't think Bernie can beat Trump. Trump is going to use socialism against Bernie, and many moderates might flip to Trump, seeing that Bernie is the most left leaning politician in modern American history.

My take is moderates may flip to Trump but there is more rabble than there are moderates and the rabble will vote Bernie in spades. I say that as a moderate Democrat who will be begrudgingly voting for Trump this election if Bernie or Warren get the ticket.

 

Is it possible that Bernie wins? Sure. Anything is possible? But looking at it in terms of probabilities, I think Bernie beating Trump is a fairly low probability event.

There are multiple ways to break this down:

-Since 1900, only four elected incumbents have lost re-election: Taft 1912, Hoover 1932, Carter 1980, HW Bush 1992. They all had the following qualities in common: 1) a recession in year 3 or year 4 of the incumbent's first term, 2) party is divided in its support of the incumbent (1912 was an extreme example of this with Teddy Roosevelt running 3rd party and getting 27% of the national popular vote, costing Taft re-election), 3) a charismatic talented political challenger (less so with Wilson, but FDR, Reagan, Clinton, were the most gifted politicians of the past century). When I look at the current landscape, none of these factors are at play in 2020. Factor #1 could change if the coronavirus spirals out of control, and we really do see a prolonged economic slowdown. But as of yet, the fundamentals remain in favor of Trump. The GOP is firmly united behind Trump, as he enjoys higher approvals within the party than even Reagan did. And no Democrat running possesses strong political talent or charisma. Trump is an absolute beast who takes up the stage and dominates the discourse. Another interesting statistic is that since 1892, only once has a party that won the presidency from the other party, gave it back after just one term: Carter and the Democrats in 1980. Generally speaking, American voters are reluctant to switch incumbent presidents or party so quickly.

-Socialism is very unpopular in the U.S. Yes, many on the Left argue that this doesn't matter because Republicans have called other Democrats socialists. But there is a substantive difference between calling a non-socialist a socialist and using that line of attack against a man who called himself a proud socialist throughout his adult life, supported communist regimes, and argued for mass nationalization of industries. Bernie has not been attacked yet by Trump and the GOP. They are salivating at the prospect of a Bernie nomination.

-Bernie's policies are out of sync with what most Americans want. These include massive tax hikes on working and middle class Americans, government run health care with 150M+ Americans losing their private health plans, green new deal and ending fracking, decriminalizing illegal entry, free health insurance to illegals, letting prisoners vote. This is just a partial list of Bernie's crazy destructive policies.

-To win, Bernie would need to flip several rust belt states. Florida is tough for Democrats due to Trump's strength in the state, and demographics favoring Trump. Bernie is especially a horrendous fit for the state, and I doubt Dems will even contest it if he's the nominee. When you look at the Midwest, OH and IA have been trending red, the GOP version of CO and VA. Bernie is not going to win there. So that leaves Bernie having to win 3 of the following: AZ, WI, MI, PA. Out of those, the only one I can see Bernie flipping is MI due to its large rural base that tends to be politically elastic and more open to Bernie's message. AZ is a swing state, but it is dominated by moderate college-educated whites who may not be huge fans of Trump and would probably vote for Bloomberg but would be repulsed by Bernie. In WI Trump's polling is fairly strong, as he does better there than in MI and PA. Trump would obliterate Bernie in the Milwaukee suburbs and there is still upside in the rural areas. Bernie will see increased turnout from college town Madison, but that won't be enough to flip the state. And even in 2018, a blue wave year, Evers beat Walker in the governor race by just 1%. The WI GOP is extremely well organized and adept at turning out its base. In PA, Bernie's promise to end fracking is a deal breaker in western PA. He also will do far worse than Hillary in the Philly suburbs, especially Chester (a traditional GOP county) and Bucks.

-Bernie's argument is that he will turn out the youth and disaffected nonvoters. There are two problems with this. First, surveys show that nonvoters actually tend to be working class white men who lean to the right and approve of Trump. Second, in order to win based on youth voters, the turnout would need to be 30%+ higher than even the Obama 2008 turnout. Hard to see that happening. When you look at the IA, NH, NV, Dem results so far, the % of first time voters and youth are lower than they were in 2016. In diverse NV the % of nonwhite voters was also lower. If Bernie is indeed an Obama-esque transformational candidate, the impact should have shown up in the early states.

-Bernie will be badly outspend and outmatched by Trump and the GOP. I have watched all the Dem debates, and Bernie is not politically adept and flexible. The general election campaign is absolutely brutal. Bernie sticks to his socialist talking points, raises his voice, and doesn't answer the question. Consistency and authenticity are his strong suits. They served him well in the Dem primary, but until the last SC debate, he was barely attacked. Trump and the GOP will have no qualms eviscerating him.

 

Rerum culpa ea quidem veniam. Inventore aut quod repellendus molestiae est laudantium dolorum. Dolorem doloribus amet natus voluptatem est. Id eaque eos omnis est itaque omnis. Impedit dolor aspernatur dignissimos nobis. Nam nulla omnis quidem vel nihil. Est deserunt possimus voluptas laborum consequatur cupiditate.

Totam animi fuga et officia voluptatem sit rerum aut. Vitae eos voluptate est quasi ducimus. Itaque maxime nobis quo non ab.

Odio nemo eius rerum vel aut voluptas laborum iste. Quasi quisquam sed laborum blanditiis consequatur voluptas. Perspiciatis quam culpa vitae aspernatur quia. Reiciendis et eum dolorum explicabo dignissimos qui.

Non sapiente tenetur id vitae impedit alias. Omnis sunt qui delectus dolorem sint ea eligendi. Doloribus tenetur sunt voluptatem expedita laudantium eos exercitationem quia.

 

Explicabo odit omnis quis. Reprehenderit animi magnam minus sed sunt voluptas omnis. Tempore repudiandae nesciunt accusamus iste voluptatem. Tempore corporis laudantium est laudantium.

Nesciunt voluptatem itaque et incidunt. Vel quos itaque sunt ut quod eos deleniti. Iusto quia blanditiis exercitationem laboriosam consequatur quia.

Ut distinctio nemo expedita quis in voluptatem quibusdam. Et et ad non iste totam. Facilis et porro aut ex debitis fuga ad. Quia ut recusandae magni. Nobis ut molestiae voluptatem atque ex dignissimos exercitationem.

[Comment removed by mod team]

Career Advancement Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. (++) 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

March 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (86) $261
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (13) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (202) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (144) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
3
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
4
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
5
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
6
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
7
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
8
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.9
9
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”