Bernie is projected at the moment to win the first 2 states of Iowa and New Hampshire. I'm not Nate Silver but this alone should give him all the momentum to win the Democratic ticket. It also doesn't hurt him that his top rival is a fucking loser, in Joe Biden.
That being said, how does he match up against Trump? Am I the only person that think Trump would 100% beat him barring no catastrophe?
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hard to say man. trump is pretty good at handing out a beating if someone has some dirt in their past, but bernie seems pretty clean. what would he get bashed for?
Bernie’s greatest weakness won’t be dirt, it will be that he is a socialist. He’d get crushed.
idk man. a lot of people want universal health care and student debt forgiveness. a lot of people might be bought by that. don't see old president d'ump making those kinds of concessions to the common (wo)man.
There are polls on this. Trump loses.
I still doubt Bernie wins the nomination though
Polls in 2016 turned out to be really on point, huh? Bernie won’t win moderates/independents and wouldn’t stand a chance in the general.
I think Bernie has bigger downside and upside than Biden. On one hand, Bernie can drive out non-voters and the young and maybe make a dent in Trump's working class white margins. On the other hand, Bernie would do noticeably worse than Hillary or Biden with college educated white suburban voters, blacks, Latinos. I think if you were to run monte carlo simulations on Biden or Bernie vs. Trump, you would see Biden with a higher median electoral vote count than Bernie, but the latter's distribution tails would be fatter (kurtosis). This means that a % chance of Bernie losing badly to Trump is higher than that of Biden, but also the % chance of beating Trump by a large margin is also higher than that of Biden.
An interesting potential consequence of a Bernie nomination is its strain on the current Democratic coalition which consists of affluent college educated whites, minorities, and the young. The first group have gravitated to the Dems due to cultural and social issues and the fact that Obama-Hillary did not pursue economic policies that would hurt them in a meaningful way. Thus, they could "afford" to vote for Democrats, allowing them to indulge in virtue signaling and being seen as "progressive" to their peer groups. Bernie, however, is saying explicitly that he will inflict economic pain on the well-off to pay for massive wealth redistribution and restructuring the American economy along socialist principles. Bernie would be the most radical major party nominee since William Jennings Bryan.
The only person who stands a chance against Trump is Bloomberg, IF he would get rid of his anti-gun platform. It is that fucking simple.
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