interesting outlook for 2011
Hey all... i came across this interesting article i figured id share with the clan....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203…
curious to hear others and those in the industries opinions.
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Read about this earlier today...interesting read. Somewhat agree with and believe the market may be due for a correction soon. I'm shorting silver in the new year.
Out of curiosity -- what's your rationale for shorting silver?
The general logic that I've been hearing is that silver prices have gone up more in % than gold (correct me if im wrong, can't remember exactly how much), but whereas gold could act as a currency silver has no history of such a role. and therefore the price is not justified.
An interesting perspective I've heard on gold from some of the most qualified people in the industry is that the demand for PHYSICAL gold (instead of ETF contracts) is shooting up. 85% of physical gold from decades ago still remain, but the # of contracts have multiplied since then, creating a gap between the real supply & the volume being traded. Also talked about land as a scarce resource and how to trade on that - many PMs from well-known HFs were there and it seems no one had quite figured out a good strategy yet, but I thought it was a very interesting idea.
Just relaying what I've heard. Sorry if I'm not using correct terminologies, definitely not an expert myself.
Silver has no history of such role?!
Google the crises of silver currency and bank notes 1750 - 1870.
Silver at these prices is mad cheap still. Silvers not only the poor mans gold but unlike gold silver has industrial purposes.
Holla at me when Silvers 50 an ounce
Sorry - just regurgitating what I've been hearing since an explanation was asked for... Like I said I'm here to learn!
You don't work on JPM's commodities desk by any chance do you?
I know the guy that runs JPM's commodities desk for precious metals. Although when I talked to him a couple weeks ago, I failed to ask about where things are going. We mainly just discussed what the next bubble would be.
@ f1mpladed, I share some of the same thoughts of the article.
@ Alpha, I hope you are not shorting silver futures. That could be devastating to one's capital.
IMO if silver touches $35 oz in the first quarter it is going staright to $40 without a hick up during the year. Not due to "fundamental" or "tech" reasons, just because of speculator panic. Don't let this last week of the year mass sell off fool you. Large players are going flat commodities. What happens when they lock and reload second week of 2011?
I speak purely from a futures stand point.
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