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April 30, 2024
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whats the thesis on cotton short? seems like a tough commodity to get in front of
too riskay
risky business. It was only a matter of time.
with all the crop failure and Chinese demand it seems like a tough short to put on. would rather invest elsewhere
what would your short thesis be? floods and crop failures were overstated, Chinese demand is not as robust as stated, buyers/manufactures/consumers will turn to blends and alternatives for clothing?
It still may be a little premature to say the bubble has "popped" in the long term imho. The U.S. is still locking in exports for delivery that we do not have. We are actually 1.4M bales short of pima cotton for committed delivery. The futures market may state cotton is 183.90 but in the cash market it is going for 220.00. From a trading standpoint what we "may" have just witness is longs finding the exit with profits and shorts buying to stop the bleeding. I'll give you an example...last week the market was lock limit for futures and options yet shorts bought spreads 15 cents above the market just to exit their short positions. The following day they had to leg out. If anything this may be a buying opportunity. Beware of top picking buddy. I'm not knocking your view by any means........just watch out.
Good luck!
lol. this market is insane, right now.... It's good traders' moment to shine... Grain oil boom bust long run pattern... Oil goes up, economy slows down, ags goes down, then grain substitute energy, then grain goes up, so people in country with oil starve and riot then oil goes up ... cycle just goes on and on... (limit down usually means the next day will continue to collapse) Brent just traded through the roof towards over $118... I expect the WTI to follow suit tmr if things don't change significant overnight. Short grain and long crude (with stop loss of course) how is that sound as a dynamic hedge.... lol
my short thesis isn't too fancy - I'm not a trader, I'm a banker. I talk to cotton merchants across the south every day, and the whole trade has been saying once $2 cotton is breached, the market would correct. So I put on the short at $2 cotton, and so far, so good. It's just a little play money, nothing I couldn't afford to lose.
jessie livermore
call me jessie if it goes above $2 again. limit down tomorrow
You are Jesse at around Chapter 7, where Harding gives him the UP tip and he gets smoked to the tune of $300,000.
Never fight the trend.
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