Is the party over?

Marcus_Halberstram:

Are you seriously asking if politicians will cease to prostitute themselves?

The party's not over, its just in a lull because the cops came and broke it up and when they came inside they saw a bunch of high school kids drinking and smoking and blowing lines and having all sorts of orgies. The parents of the house were out on a run to restock the quickly dwindling beer and drug and dildo supplies and when they got the phone call from the cops, they played dumb and acted as if they had no idea what was going on at their house. Well now all the neighbors are on alert and Social Services is keeping tabs on them, so the degenerate parents are on their best behavior.

Sooner or later, the neighbors will go back to their oblivion, Social Services will stop paying visits, and Mom and Dad will get that itch to get to host a swarm of drunk and horny high school kids.

^^funny, but not exaclty a meaningful analysis.

party isnt over, but it wont be as fun going into the future.

dazedmonk:

I hope Batrick Pateman's right b/c some of us were still observing curfews at mommy and daddy's house during the last party and would really really like to be at the next one.

The problem is you have speak Hindi, Mandarin, Zulu Warrior dance to get into the next one

AnthonyD1982:

Party is not over. Things move in cycles, whatever legislation the government puts in place will just cause an opportunity to be exploited. Rather than let market forces take care of things the ever so wise politicians think they can come in and mess with stuff. They wanted to promote minority ownership of housing and look at the tidal wave that set off (yes, I know there is more to it, but this is just a tiny example).

I have now lived through a handful of booms and busts and nothing changes. I don't think this will be any different.

Exactly. Notice that the majority of posters here are young. I talked to a partner at a fund who has worked at places like DLJ and ML and also has made money off previous commercial real estate booms, and he said we're just in another cycle.

Just like during the boom, when people think it will go on forever, during the bust people don't see the recovery coming.

AnthonyD1982:

Party is not over. Things move in cycles, whatever legislation the government puts in place will just cause an opportunity to be exploited. Rather than let market forces take care of things the ever so wise politicians think they can come in and mess with stuff. They wanted to promote minority ownership of housing and look at the tidal wave that set off (yes, I know there is more to it, but this is just a tiny example).

I have now lived through a handful of booms and busts and nothing changes. I don't think this will be any different.

i would like to think this recession is just another business cycle. but with the amount of debt outstanding in virtually every level - both public and private - its hard not to be concerned. i see one of 3 things happeneing:

*the US goes through a period of anemic growth. couple of yrs (or a decade) down the line, bad debt flushes out of the system. banks go back to lending, everybody is happy, all is well, business as usual.

*financial apocalypse. losses oin real estate are realized on bank balance sheets, state and local govs default, consumer spends less, taxes go up, federal gov refuses bail out. prolonged depression. probably unlikely, but i think the possibilty exists.

*or maybe something in between. or something totally different. there are a lot of moving parts.

for the past couple of yrs or so, the main driver for growth has been easy financing. for better or for worse, the US economy is based on credit. there might be something wrong with that.

AnthonyD1982:

Rather than let market forces take care of things the ever so wise politicians think they can come in and mess with stuff. They wanted to promote minority ownership of housing and look at the tidal wave that set off (yes, I know there is more to it, but this is just a tiny example).

this is just a rant, but i cant help getting irratated when i see comments like this.

that legilslation you're referring to is the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. that was a long time ago and it had very little negative consequense...until Glass-Steagall was repaeled in 1999. it took less than a decade for the financial crisis to manifest after that.

i agree that the gov shouldnt be doing anything. but you guys tend to focus on the wrong side of that concept. when the gov passes legislation FOR the deregulation of financial institutions, the shit hits the fan. i think that's what the history is telling us.

AnthonyD1982:

Party is not over. Things move in cycles, whatever legislation the government puts in place will just cause an opportunity to be exploited. Rather than let market forces take care of things the ever so wise politicians think they can come in and mess with stuff. They wanted to promote minority ownership of housing and look at the tidal wave that set off (yes, I know there is more to it, but this is just a tiny example).

I have now lived through a handful of booms and busts and nothing changes. I don't think this will be any different.

IDK Anthony, we're breathing very rarified air right now. Obama & crew is bafoonishly proving JM Keyens wrong. With dollar value where it is and housing pricing so low, classically retained monies should be bringing volume of sales and home prices up. But it's not, for whatever reason (there's a littany of them); which economically points to one big bad shitstorm....deflation. People who do have money to spend/invest have no reason to put money into anything while it's prices are tumbling ONTOP of a rouge government whose actions inject plenty of doubt as to whether their property rights are going to be observed. Stimulus is suppossed to correct externalities not take the fall for internal faggotry; and because of it, it's fucked data so bad the best we can do is guess. Which is scary.

Personally I think un-employment isn't going to fluctuate very much which is key to any type of housing rebound. Companies have already been running high and tight for the last year and last years equities bounce wasn't any type of green light for a hiring frenzy. Two things could happen IMHO: 1) Houses become as valuable as German currency post WWI and every dickhead with 5k in cash can buy a home 70% LTV 2) Either the consumer stops throwing dildo infested high school orgies and starts finding a way to pay down their debts consistently & restort some validity for credit or the epicurian foster parents go to bat for the consumer and start extending more credit to the consumer. Those are very hand wavy but it's probably as good as anyone else's guess right now.

Also keep in mind our economy and the government that observe it are man made. All it takes is one half baked piece of liberal legislation with 2 grader quality handwriting all over it to kick the can down the road. Keep in mind the stimulus wasn't "tax payer" money; it was monopoly money printed out by the Fed. They can keep this dance going as long as they want.

Gate_Crasher:

The Party will never be over until the Fall of the Republic !

So you mean around ten or fifteen years?