Is this it for the Euro?
Oh man do we have an interesting week ahead of us.
While the Finnish citizenry rejoice and carouse over the True Finns landslide victory, I see three, very powerful and very influential people squirming in their seats; Merkel in Germany, Socrates in Portugal, and the Ben Bernank in the States.
For those who don't know, the True Finns is the Finnish Nationalist Party, a populist, anti-immigration and European integration party hell bent on derailing the EU bailouts and drawing lines against southern European laziness.
"Here in the Nordic nations we draw a line between the decent, hard-working countries of the north, and the easy-going, relaxed southern states"
Totally what I said earlier.
Their victory obviously does not bode well for Merkel, she now stands to hear more from the growing anti-euro parties in Germany and as for Socrates, well he's in for a doozy. As it stands, Finland cannot block the Portuguese bailout, but what they can do is delay it for months which could effectively destroy whatever's left of Portugal's finances.
Euro short anyone?
Well it's not that easy apparently.
"If the TRUE FINNS win and the DOLLAR still fails to rally, it will be a signal that other factors are at work and the DOLLAR is suffering from some structural defects beyond the immediate radar screen."
And I agree, the market has had the Fed under a microscope for months now so I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro's current fall might lose its legs tomorrow.
Any of you guys see how this will play out?
I am seriously bearish on the Euro now but who isn't dollar bearish as well?
Oh what a tangled world we live in. But you just got to love it.
Tomorrow should be a real fun day for FX.