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Shocker.  Shitty construction company shuts down.  Maybe the headline should have been "overrated VC investor keeps dead business afloat for way too long."

I know real estate seems like a prime candidate for "disruption" but there are legit reasons why the business operates it does.  I guess Masayoshi Son is proving that, one failure at a time

 
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Failures are inevitable, there are sometimes even massive failures. But the way the VC world operates, a few massive wins subsidize and more than make up for the losses. Son's net worth is only increasing, doubt he is losing sleep. 

I get that, my point was more that the entire VC "business model" is a giant game of musical chairs that stops and bankrupts everyone playing the moment interest rates go up.  I'm not so sure Son's net worth is "only increasing," though I guess once you've made your first several hundred million it hardly matters.  You can only piss away billions of dollars so many times before it actually becomes prohibitive to returns.

VC funds are fundamentally distorting markets, and not in "good" ways.  Look at Uber.  That is a company that may never be profitable, and that's a success story.  I feel like the emphasis on growth to the exclusion of all else is causing bad businesses to come into the market and making it harder for good ones to stay in.  My GC has to be profitable to stay in business, whereas one backed by a startup doesn't.  What happens to the industry when my GC goes bust from the competition, and the next Katerra of the world hangs on a few years longer only to fold under it's inevitable lack of profitability.  That's decades of experience down the drain that makes it harder for people to build shit, since all the GCs are out of the market.

 

Like any hedge fund, they will have losses. But relatively speaking, SoftBank is crushing it. Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/softbank-joins-top-corporate-earners-wi…

Except, this kind of feels like the gambler who loves to crow about how much he wins every time he lands a winning hand.  They also lost a billion yen the year before, which makes the overall returns look a little less impressive.  Also, it includes the couple of unicorn success stories like Coupang.  The entire VC model is based on having like 5-10% of your investments be absolute home runs, maybe another 10-15% do alright, and the rest be total flops.  Of course the day that your one 20x investment comes through you look like a genius.  When the rest of them are losers and your fund ends up returning 2x over ten years, you look a lot less smart.  Not saying Softbank is going to do that poorly, but you can't take those returns seriously when they're being trumpeted at the most successful moment for the fund amid one of the frothiest markets ever.

 

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